Kissinger Institute on China and the United States Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
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1 Kissinger Institute on China and the United States Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Kiyoyuki Seguchi The Canon Institute for Global Studies May 30,
2 Xi Jinping s Historic Mission To Avoid the Middle Income Trap Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China? 2
3 Policies for avoiding the Middle income trap Privatization of SOE Reduction of excessive equipment Financial liberalization Reducing income gap Improving the environment Correcting the corruption <Solution> Marketization Political leadership Democratization 3
4 Anti-corruption campaign The Eight-item Regulations 1.Sentences : Short and easy to understand 2.Foreign business trip of VIP : Observance of rules 3.Security for VIP : Don t be too much 4.Broadcasting : Cut meaningless news of VIP 5.Publishing books : Allowed publishing only 6.Austerity of daily life spending 7.Prohibition of excessive entertainment 8.Meetings : Effectiveness 4
5 Ripple Effect of Distrust of Government Explosion of ordinary people s anger against corruption of leaders of the communist party and officials of the government Refusal of donation for the earthquake in Sichuan Province through the governmental organization and the Red Cross Serious criticism against the former premier Wen Jiabao 5
6 Real GDP Growth Y to Y % Source:CEIC 6
7 CPI 20.0 % CPI food others Source : CEIC 7
8 Increase of employee in urban area and real GDP growth rate Thousand people increase of employee in urban area GDP growth rate % 14, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source:CEIC 8
9 Balance of Trade 3500 (100 million USD) Source : CEIC 9
10 Contribution Rate to GDP by Component % Consumption Investment Net Export Source : CEIC 10
11 Increasing Income level of the Major Cities After GDP per capita reaches 10 thousand USD, Consumer s Behavior change. Major cities of which GDP per capita reached 10 thousand USD The year when GDP per capita Reached 10,000 USD Major cities and their population (10,000 person, on 2010 basis) Sub total of each city s population 2007 Suzhou(638) Wuxi(467) Shenzhen(1,037) 2, Guangzhou(806) Shanghai(2,303) Hangzhou(689) Ninbo(574) Erdos(152) Baotou(220) 4, Beijing(1,962) Dalian(586),Changzhou(361) 2, Tianjin(1,299) Huhhot(230) 1, Wuhan(837) Shenyang(720) Changsha(652) Qingdao(764) Nanjing(632) Tangshan(735) etc. 6, Jinan(607), Yangzhou(460) 1, Nantong(765), Zhengzhou(963), Fuzhou(649) etc. 4, ~13 Total Total population of the all major cities 23,102 Source : CEIC 11
12 Price level of Automobile s Volume Zone 2010 Around 50 thousand RMB 2012 Around 100 thousand RMB (Shanghai Around 150 thousand RMB) SUV around 200 thousand RMB are also popular. 12
13 Expansion of Market for Japanese Companies Nominal GDP(Japan:China) 100:93 100:160 Population of major cities of which GDP per capita reached 10 thousand USD 68.9 mil. people mil. people (3.4 times as large as 2008) Profit per sales ratio lower higher Japanese goods are high quality but a little too expensive. Japanese goods are a little expensive but high quality. 13
14 FDI to China by countries(100 million USD) 90 (right scale) Total Japan Taiwan Korea US Germany (left scale for each country) Note : Data of 2013 is calculated by Y to Y growth rate of the total amount of 4 months from January to April. Source : CEIC 0
15 Feature of the 4 th boom of Japan s FDI to China 1Aiming at Domestic Market (Focusing Inland Area) 2Increase of Service Sector 3Increase of Reinvestment of Return in China 15
16 Perspective on the win-win development between Japan and China China is lacking in advanced technology and sophisticated service. Japan is lacking in vigor of the domestic market. If Japan and China cooperate each other complementally, both countries can enjoy sustainable and harmonious development. 16
17 Win-Win Relation between Japan and China Increase of Japan s FDI to China Short term:increase of employment and tax revenue in China Long term:improvement of China s technology level Increase of return of Japanese companies and domestic employment in Japan Enhancement of China s competitiveness Stability of trade and fiscal balance Increase of business chances of Japanese companies in China Expansion of the Chinese domestic market 17
18 18
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