US Economic Activity

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2 US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015.

3 US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter The January Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months.

4 US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter The January Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months. The US unemployment rate was 9.61% in The rate fell to 4.9% in February However, there are a record 94 million workers not in the labor force. The participation rate is stuck at a near 38-year low of 62.7%.

5 US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter The Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months. The US unemployment rate was 9.61% in The rate fell to 4.9% in January However, there are a record 94 million workers not in the labor force. The participation rate is stuck at a near 38-year low of 62.7%. In 4Q 2015, personal consumption expenditures were $12,429B, up each quarter in 2015.

6 2,000 1,900 New Home Construction Starts, Completed Units, and Building Permits 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 Total housing starts for 2015 (unadjusted) were up 10.8% over Starts Completions Building Permits Thousand Units 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Source: US Census Bureau Dec- 14 Jan- 15 Feb- 15 Mar- 15 Apr- 15 May- 15 Graph: HMR Jun- 15 Jul- 15 Aug- 15 Sep- 15 Oct- 15 Nov- 15 Dec- 15

7 800 New Single-Family Home Construction Units Started Units Completed Building Permits Thousand Units Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR

8 US Single-Family Housing Starts and Completions In January 2014, completions were 5.5% above starts. Thousand (SAAR) In January 2016, completions were 5.2% below starts. 500 Units Started 400 Units Completed 300 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR Executive

9 60.0% Average Percentage of New Home Sales Priced at $300,000 or More 50.0% Source: US Census Bureau Graph: Hardwood Market Report 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

10 $250,000 Chart Title Private Expenditures on US Residential Construction Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 Million US Dollars $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 Single-family Multi-family $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $0 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Repair and Remodeling Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR

11 2016 Hardwood Market Report Estimates of Consumption of US Hardwoods % Change 2014 % Change 2007 Pallets % -0.3% Furniture % -52.9% Exports % 27.3% Millwork % -59.4% Cabinets % -69.9% Flooring % -48.9% Railway Ties % 17.8% Board Road/Mat Timbers N/A % N/A Total Estimated Consumption % -18.1%

12 800 Consumtion of Hardwood Lumber by Grade Markets Million Board Feet Source: Private, Government, and HMR Graph: Hardwood Market Report Furniture Moulding/Millwork Cabinets Flooring

13 Furniture Hardwood Market Report 1.0 Billion Board Feet

14 Millwork Hardwood Market Report to % 2014 to % Billion Board Feet

15 Cabinets Hardwood Market Report Billion Board Feet

16 Flooring Hardwood Market Report Billion Board Feet to % 2014 to %

17 35,000 US Manufacturers' Shipments of Solid Wood Flooring (Thousand Square Feet) 25 30, ,000 Volume 20,000 15,000 Volume Working Days Working Days 10,000 Shipments were down 7.2% in 2015 from 2014 and 4.3% in January 2016 from January , Hardwood Market Report 0 0

18 World Imports of Hardwood Flooring to the US Million Square Feet Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Graph: Hardwood Market Report Total imports declined 84.9% from 2006 to 2015 but were up 37.7% from 2014 to 31.4 million square feet. From 2006 to 2015, shipments: China % Malaysia % Indonesia % Canada % Mexico % Vietnam - +2,799%

19 900,000,000 US Market Consumption of Hardwood Flooring Total Imports 800,000,000 US Mfgs Shipments to the Domestic Marketplace 700,000,000 Square Feet 600,000, ,000,000 Imports increased 37.7% in 2015 from 2014 and 86.0% from ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Sources: USDA FAS and Hardwood Market Report Graph: Hardwood Market Report

20 14 12 Hardwood Lumber Consumption by Major US Markets 2016 Hardwood Market Report Grade Lumber Markets % Industrial Markets Billion Board Feet % 12.9B' 41.0% 59.0% 8.45B'

21 Pallets Hardwood Market Report Billion Board Feet

22 Railway Ties to % 2014 to % 1.00 Billion Board Feet Source: Railway Tie Association Graph: Hardwood Market Report

23 Board Road/Mat Timbers N/A Hardwood Market Report 0.35 Billion Board Feet

24 Exports to % 2014 to % 1.5 Billion Board Feet Source: USDA FAS Graph: Hardwood Market Report

25 Percentage of Total US Hardwood Lumber Exports (Volume) 50% 45% 40% 35% European Union-27 Canada China Vietnam Mexico 30% 25% 20% Source: USDA FAS Graph: Hardwood Market Report 15% 10% 5% 0%

26 800 US Exports of Hardwood Lumber to China 700 China's Growing Middle and Upper Classes Consuming US Hardwoods 600 Million Board Feet US Furniture Manufacturing Shift to China and US Housing Boom % US Housing Bust and Worldwide Economic Turmoil % 100 Source: USDA FAS Graph: HMR Executive Source: USDA FAS Graph: HMR Executive

27 Export Markets Currency Valuation Global Demand Availability of other Species Shift from Lumber to Logs

28 Estimated Annual Rates of Sawmill Production for Eastern US Hardwoods 10, , Million Bd. Ft. 8,000 7, = 8.315B Bd. Ft Working Days per Month 6, = 8.276B Bd. Ft. Production Working Days 16 5, Hardwood Market Report 4, Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16

29 Eastern US Hardwood Production 13,000 12,000 Production Peaked in 1999 at an est. 12,619,000,000 board feet 2016 Hardwood Market Report 11,000 Million Board Feet 10,000 9,000 8, est. 7,157,500,000 board feet 2015 production was 8,275,975,600. 7,000 6, est. 7,672,500,000 board feet Estimated 56 year average was 9,406,024,000 board feet. 5,000 Graph: Hardwood Market Report Sources: US Census Bureau, US Forest Service, and Hardwood Market Report 4,000

30 12 Consumption of Hardwood Lumber by Major US Market Sectors and Total Supply of Hardwood Lumber Consumption Total Supply from All Sources Billion Board Feet Graph: HMR Executive Sources: Data Collected from a Variety of Industry, Government, and Academic Sources

31 $1,800 Appalachian Kiln Dried 4/4 #1C Red Oak $1,605/M $1,600 $1,400 Price per 1,000 Bd. Ft. $1,200 $1,000 $800 $880/M $900/M 2016 Hardwood Market Report $600

32 Thank You Hardwood Market Report David Caldwell P.O. Box 2633 Memphis, Tennessee USA Voice: (901) ~ Fax: (901)

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