Ensuring Reliability in ERCOT

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1 Ensuring Reliability in ERCOT Beth Garza Director, ERCOT IMM February 27, 2018

2 2

3 Data Comparisons ERCOT Population (million) Germany Annual electricity consumption (TWh) Typical residential annual consumption (kwh/year) ~3400? 3

4 Geography D SA H Mexico 4

5 Annual Generation Mix ERCOT Annual Energy by Fuel Type 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Other Natural Gas Wind Coal Nuclear 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

6 Installed Capacity (GW) Installed Capacity Vintage BIOMASS-MB BIOMASS SOLAR WIND GAS-MB GAS COAL HYDRO NUCLEAR

7 Key ERCOT attributes Transmission unbundled from Generation and Retail since 2001 Sizable public sector ownership (20-25%) not required to unbundle or compete at retail Regulatory oversight rests with the State of Texas through the Public Utility Commission Energy-only market Low barriers for new generation 7

8 How does ERCOT ensure sufficient installed reserves? 8

9 Three sources of revenues for generators Energy during non-shortage conditions Energy during shortage conditions Capacity 9

10 High Offer Caps / $9000 per MWh in mid $9,000 $7,000-8,999 $5,000-6,999 $4,500-4,999 $3,000-4,499 $1,000-2,999 Hours J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

11 Real-Time Energy Price ($ per MWh) ORDC Implemented as a cheap and easier * alternative to real-time cooptimization of energy and ancillary services Reserve Adder: mid-2014 Reliability Adder: mid-2015 $29 $28 $27 $26 $25 $24 $23 $22 Reserve Adder Reliability Adder $28.25 $26.77 $ * My words 11

12 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Peaker Net Margin ($000 per MW) Peaker Net Margin $140 gas price times 10 subtracted from real time price $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ , , , $0 12

13 Projected Reserve Margin Outlook for % Existing Capacity New Gas New Solar New Wind 20% 15% 11.7% 11.8% 11.1% 10% 9.3% 9.0% 5% 0% Source: ERCOT Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December

14 Projected Reserve Margin 2017 Outlook 25% Existing Capacity New Gas New Solar New Wind New Coal New Storage 20% 16.9% 20.2% 19.6% 19.5% 19.0% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: ERCOT Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December

15 Projected Reserve Margin 2013 Outlook 16% 14% Existing Capacity New Gas New Wind (8.7% of installed capacity) New Coal New Other Target Reserve Margin: 13.75% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: ERCOT Capacity Demand Reserve Reports / 2013 data from Winter 2012, from May

16 Projected Reserve Margin 2014 Outlook 16% 14% Existing Capacity New Gas New Wind (8.7% of installed capacity) New Coal New Other Target Reserve Margin: 13.75% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: ERCOT Capacity Demand Reserve Report issued February

17 In Conclusion To date, ERCOT s energy only market design has attracted sufficient investment in new resources. Will renewable resources will be sufficient to meet growing demand and/or will additional investment in thermal (gas) units be forthcoming? Which participants might be exposed to significantly higher prices? How will political and regulatory oversight respond? 17

18 Wind stuff If needed 18

19 Installed Wind Generation (GW) Annual Capacity Factor More wind producing more Installed Wind Capacity Annual capacity factor % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19

20 Capacity Factor 2016 Unit Specific Wind Generation Capacity Factor 60% Coastal Panhandle All Other Wind 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20

21 Wind Production & Curtailment (TWh) Wind Output and Estimated Curtailment 60 Estimated Curtailment Output % % 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 7.7% % 17.1% %

22 Improved Reliability Metrics 22

23 Reserve Quantities - GW Declining Requirements for Ancillary Services RegDown NonSpin Responsive RegUp 23

24 Key Enablers Common carrier model for Transmission Centralized forecasting of wind output for every wind generator ramp events Real-time output variations accommodated 24

25 ERCOT Transmission All loads pay for all transmission Generators make no investment past their step-up transformer CREZ investment - $7B 25

26 Rate ($ per kw - year) Average 4CP Load (GW) Annual TCOS ($Billion) Transmission Costs $4.0 $3.5 $ $ $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $60 $50 $40 0 $0.0 $30 $20 $10 $0 26

27 $ per MWh $ per MBtu Transmission and Energy costs RT Load weighted Avg price Average transmission cost Gas 0 27

28 ERCOT Wind Forecasts Hourly forecast of wind production potential for each Wind-powered Generation Resource (WGR) updated hourly, for next 168 hours. (STWPF) Determine probability distribution of the hourly production potential from all windpower in ERCOT for each of the next 168 hours. (TEWPF) WGR provide turbine availability via outage scheduler 28

29 ERCOT Wind Forecasts - WGR requirements Install and telemeter to ERCOT site-specific meteorological information necessary to produce the STWPF and TEWPF forecasts. ERCOT requires the following data be provided from each WGR every five minutes: MW Average Wind Speed Wind Direction Temperature Barometric Pressure HSL Average Num of Turbines On Num of Turbines Off Num of Turbines Unknown Curtailment Flag 29

30 Accommodating variable output ERCOT dispatch executes every 5 minutes WGR High Sustained Limit (HSL), when not curtailed, to be telemetered as equal to the WGR s current meter reading When curtailed, WGR s receive a curtailment flag from ERCOT along with their Base Point (dispatch level) When WGR is curtailed, the HSL to be telemetered is the expected output, but for the curtailment WGR ramping when curtailed limited to 20% per minute, unless installed before 2009 and have a good excuse 30

31 Hours Negative prices WEST Only ERCOT Wide Other 31

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