THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL CHALLENGES & U.S. REAL ESTATE TIMOTHY H. SAVAGE, PH.D. SENIOR MANAGING ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL DATA SCIENTIST
|
|
|
- Tobias Chandler
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL CHALLENGES & U.S. REAL ESTATE TIMOTHY H. SAVAGE, PH.D. SENIOR MANAGING ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL DATA SCIENTIST
2 GROWTH SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS Source: Macrobond, Oxford Economics, CBRE Econometric Advisors, January 2018.
3 WITH SOME MILD FISCAL EXPANSION Contraction Expansion Expansion Source: Macrobond, Oxford Economics, CBRE Econometric Advisors, January 2018.
4 BUT CORE INFLATION REMAINS WEAK 3% Target 2% Target Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Econometric Advisors, January 2018.
5 GOLDILOCKS IS STILL HERE
6 UNEMPLOYMENT: A GOOD, CLEAR CYCLICAL INDICATOR 3y 8m 7y 7m 9y 6m 11y 6y 4m 10y+ Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
7 BUT HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research, Q
8
9 WORLD IN GRIP OF MASSIVE LABOR SUPPLY SHOCK Fall of Communism Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, CBRE Econometric Advisors.
10 GOLDILOCKS IS STILL HERE
11 SO ARE THE BEARS
12 WAGE GROWTH SPOOKS MARKETS Growth Rate, (% Y/Y, 3MA) US Wage Growth 0 Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Calculations, February 2018.
13 WHY? UNEVEN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH Annualized Growth (%) (2) (4) (6) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, February 2018.
14 REAL INTEREST RATES NEGATIVE IN 2018 Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Econometric Advisors, January 2018.
15 QUANTITATIVE EASING IS FADING Trillions Outstanding ($) Forecast Fed BoJ ECB BoE Total Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research, January 2018.
16 THE END OF CHIMERICA?
17 WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE REAL ESTATE?
18 OFFICE CYCLE: MUTED Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
19 RETAIL CYCLE: MUTED Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
20 MULTIFAMILY CYCLE: STRUCTURAL BOOST Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
21 INDUSTRIAL CYCLE: GAINING FROM RETAIL Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
22 THE CHICAGO BEARS?
23 OFFICE CYCLE: CHICAGO IN LINE Unemployment (%) Civilian Unemployment Rate Office Rent Inflation (%) Chicago Office Rent Inflation (%) Y-o-Y Rent Growth (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
24 RETAIL CYCLE: CHICAGO TRAILING Unemployment (%) U.S. Unemployment TW Rent Index Chicago TW Rent Index Y-o-Y Rent Growth (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
25 MULTIFAMILY CYCLE: CHICAGO ALL CAUGHT UP Unemployment (%) U.S. Unemployment TW Rent Index Chicago TW Rent Index Y-o-Y Rent Growth (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
26 INDUSTRIAL CYCLE: UPSIDE POTENTIAL Unemployment (%) Civilian Unemployment Rate Industrial Rent Inflation Chicago Industrial Rent Inflation Y-o-Y Rent Growth (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, CBRE Research.
27 BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME
28 NEW SUPPLY IS RAMPING UP NATIONALLY Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, February 2018.
29 CHICAGO SUPPLY: AT RECORD HIGHS (DRIVEN BY MF) Completions Index (2002 = 100 Total) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, February Office Industrial Apartment Retail
30 RETAIL COMPLETIONS APPEAR HISTORICALLY LOW Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q
31 YET WITH IMPACT OF ECOMMERCE Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q
32 U.S. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
33 CHICAGO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT USD Billion, floating exchange rates Apartment (L) Hotel (L) Industrial (L) Office (L) Retail (L) Rolling 4-Qtr Global Average (R.) Source: CBRE Research, Real Capital Analytics, Q
34 CHICAGO CAP RATES TIGHTER Cap Rate Comparison 6.5 Cap Rate(%) Office Industrial Apartment Retail Chicago National Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Cap Rate Survey, Q
35 AND TIGHTER IN H Cap Rate Comparison Cap Rate(%) Office Industrial Apartment Retail Chicago H Chicago H Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Cap Rate Survey, Q
36 DON T FIGHT THE FED
37 INTEREST RATES ARE KEY WHITHER RATES? (BERNANKE S CONUNDRUM) Interest Rates Fed Funds & 10-Year Treasury INTEREST RATES FED FUNDS AND 10-YEAR TREASURY (2) Gap Effective Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Source: CBRE Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 2018.
38 CONCLUSIONS IF THIS SOUNDED COMPLICATED... IT IS. GROWTH OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED U.S. LEADS. MONETARY POLICY IS TIGHTENING U.S. LEADS. LARGE GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS LEADS. WHAT WEATHERS THIS STORM? IS IT TIME TO EASE BACK ON SUPPLY?
39 Q&A
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources
The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy
U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1. Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research
U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1 Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research CBRE Page 2 Outlook for the Real Side of the Economy Operationally, what do Research Teams
Economic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)
The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw
Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services
Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate
2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK How Much Longer Can the Second Longest Economic Expansion on Record Last? Craig Dismuke Chief Economist cdismuke@viningsparks.com Dudley Carter Economist dcarter@viningsparks.com
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?
Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Kan Chen Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus According to our
The US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook
Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group
Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier
U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014
2014 U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook July 15, 2014 U.S. Economic Overview U.S. GDP Growth Persistent Despite 1Q Polar Vortex Annualized Quarterly Percent Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
Economic and Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)
U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
Chief Economist s Report
Chief Economist s Report 22 February 2017 IATA Legal Symposium, Washington Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Themes 1. World economy still stuck on
Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds
Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,
2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014
2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017
Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
After the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)
North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to
Business Cycle Upswing Impact on the Semiconductor Outlook
Business Cycle Upswing Impact on the Semiconductor Outlook Surface Preparation and Cleaning Conference (SPCC) April 11, 2018 Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics, LLC duncan.meldrum@hilltopeconomics.com
Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
An Agricultural Update
An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard
Houston and Tomball Economic and. Housing Outlook. recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist
Houston and Tomball Economic and Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist Housing Outlook recenter.tamu.edu THE CURRENT SITUATION The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra National Economic Recovery
THIS AIN T THE 80s! And Houston isn t going anywhere.
THIS AIN T THE 80s! And Houston isn t going anywhere. EXPECTEDLY, A DRAMATIC DOWNTURN IN OIL, ONE THAT HAS RUN EVEN FASTER AND DEEPER THAN DURING 2008-2009, RAISED ALARM ABOUT THE STABILITY OF THE HOUSTON
MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:
MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or
2012 Raleigh-Durham Market Forecast Investment Sales. Jeff Glenn CBRE Wednesday, March 21, 2012
2012 Raleigh-Durham Market Forecast Investment Sales Jeff Glenn CBRE Wednesday, March 21, 2012 What s Wrong with this Picture? TOPICS I. National Perspective II. Raleigh-Durham Spotlight III. A Closer
Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation
Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
Economic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:
Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation at Inforum Outlook Conference University of Maryland College Park, MD December 12, 2013
National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results
The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results January 19, 2018 Elif Sen Senior Economic Analyst FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA * The views expressed today are my
The Fed and the Economic Outlook
The Fed and the Economic Outlook Mark L. J. Wright Research Director Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis March 28, 2018 Disclaimer The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal
Texas Housing Markets: Metropolitan vs. Border Communities. September 22, 2014
Texas Housing Markets: Metropolitan vs. Border Communities Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. Research Economist El Paso Branch Dallas Federal Rio Grande Economic Association September 22, 2014 Contents
Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits
Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 50 = no change in output expected Widespread
Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley
Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1
The structure of the euro area recovery
The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness
Economy On The Rebound
Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive
Vancouver Real Estate Forum
Vancouver Real Estate Forum MODERATOR John O Bryan Chairman CBRE Limited PANELIST Chris Dobrzanski, CEO, Citizens Bank David Franklin, President, CMLS Financial Ltd. Morley Greene, President, Trez Capital
Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd
The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd 1 WHY ECONOMICS? THE REASON FOR STUDYING ECONOMICS IS TO AVOID BEING DECEIVED BY ECONOMISTS Joan Robinson,
DFW MULTIFAMILY TRENDS & OBSERVATIONS Q2 2017
DFW MULTIFAMILY TRENDS & OBSERVATIONS Q2 2017 DALLAS / FORT WORTH The Top US Demand Driven Apartment Market DFW MULTIFAMILY STARTS A HISTORY LESSON!!! The challenge boom or bust perception vs recent history
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018
How Much Wind Is in the Sails?
How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas
Economic Update Edward Seiler NH&RA
Economic Update Edward Seiler NH&RA 2 Annual Real GDP Growth (%) 5.0 4.0 Actual (BEA) Forecast (CBO in red, OMB red + orange) 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means?
De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? Presentation to 35 Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Mykyta Vesselovsky, Ph.D. Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada April
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018
Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values
A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant
Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish?
Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Keynote Address Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
From Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
2016 Texas Prosperity Conference The Barnhill Center Brenham, Texas August 26, Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist. recenter.tamu.
2016 Texas Prosperity Conference The Barnhill Center Brenham, Texas August 26, 2016 Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist recenter.tamu.edu Housing and People 2 Texas Population 1910-2050 60,000,000 50,000,000
Partnerships with Purpose: Housing for Texans
Partnerships with Purpose: Housing for Texans 25th Annual TALHFA Educational Conference October 25-27, 2017 Fort Worth, Texas Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist 2 Outlook Since November 10, 2017: Rising
Composition of Federal Spending
*For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services
Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011
Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005
Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy
Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October
East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference
East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP
Outlook for airline markets and industry performance
Outlook for airline markets and industry performance June 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist International Air Transport Association % change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change The already
Curves On The Road Ahead
Curves On The Road Ahead Light Vehicle Market Outlook November 2018 Charles Chesbrough Senior Economist A g e n d a Economic Outlook and New Vehicle Sales Affordability Threat and the Used Vehicle Market