Michigan Population Trends: The School Age Population

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1 Michigan Population Trends: The School Age Population Eric Guthrie Michigan s State Demographer January 16, 2018

2 State Demographer Michigan s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)

3 Subscribe to the Bureau s Listserv for updates I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at:

4 Topics Population Trends and Projections Population Structure Migration Births Conclusions

5 Michigan s Population 10,100,000 10,050,000 10,055,315 10,000,000 9,950,000 9,952,450 9,962,311 9,900,000 9,850,000 9,876,199 9,800,000 9,750, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

6 Michigan s Projected Population 10,800,000 10,600,000 10,400,000 10,200,000 10,000,000 9,800,000 9,600,000 9,400, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

7 Age Specific Projections 7,000, ,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

8 Projections for Children (0 17) 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates; MDOT and U M s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE), Population Projections

9 Why Does It Matter? There are only three things that affect a population size over time: Births Deaths Migration Population 2 = Population 1 + Births Deaths + (In migrations Out migration) Natural Change Net Migration

10 Michigan Age Structure Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

11 Michigan Age Structure Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

12 Net Migration 40,000 20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,

13 Net Migration Rate by Age Group (Per 1,000 Residents) Domestic Domestic Domestic 65+ International International International

14 Births 160, , , , , , , , ,000 90, , ,312 80, Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

15 Determinants of Fertility Biological Age Genetics Environmental Social Educational Level of Women Value of Children Cultural Expectations Much, Much More

16 Fertility by Generation (Births per 1,000 Women) 120 Boomers Gen X Millennials Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

17 Births by Age Group years years years years years years Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

18 Birth Rate by Age Group (Births per 1,000 Women) years years years years years years Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

19 Educational Attainment 18 to and over 25 to to to and over Less than high school graduate High school (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher High school or higher Bachelor's degree or higher

20 Median Age at First Marriage Male Female

21 Increasing Median Ages for Mothers Between 2003 and 2015 : Median age for mothers having a first child increased from 25 to 26. Median age for all mothers increased from 27 to 28 years

22 Conclusions Migration patterns are shifting and looking better for the state 2017 estimates show the state had a positive net migration for the first time since before 2001 Domestic migration is still negative, but trending in the right direction Migration will bring school age children in addition to those that are a result of natural increase Projected population increases are expected to result from migration

23 Conclusions Age at first marriage and first child are both increasing, which is resulting in delayed fertility Delayed fertility translates to reduced fertility Patterns of fertility are long term patterns that develop in society. Fertility in Michigan and the U.S. more generally has been trending downward for decades. The Total Fertility Rate for Michigan in 2014 was 1.81 versus 1.84 for the U.S.

24 Conclusions Declining fertility will translate into declining enrollment over the next 5 to 10 years, but enrollment should increase some following that period of decline Increases will not get back up to the peak, but declines will stop for a time Any decrease or increases in fertility and enrollment will not be experienced evenly across the state Some areas are seeing increases in enrollment even in this period, while other areas will continue to see declines over the entirety of the millennial generation s period of fertility

25 Thank you Questions?

26 Eric Guthrie Michigan s State Demographer Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Victor Office Building 201 N. Washington Square 5th Floor Lansing, MI (517) guthriee@michigan.gov

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