Changes of Ecosystem & Societies on the Mongolia Plateau: Coupled Regulations of Landuse and Changing Climate
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1 Changes of Ecosystem & Societies on the Mongolia Plateau: Coupled Regulations of Landuse and Changing Climate Jiquan Chen, Ranjeet John, Nan Lu, Burkhard Wilske, Changliang Shao, Linhao Li, Lin Zhen, Shiqiang Wan, and others
2 The NEESPI Region MG IM Groissman et al, 2009
3 Why focus research on Mongolia Plateau?
4 Ground truth field campaign on MODIS land cover in Inner Mongolia: June/July, 2006 & Km
5 Typical grassland in Dongwu Degraded grassland in Xilinhot Stipa krylovii grassland in Duolun Cropland in Duolun
6 Direct measurements of vegetation and soil properties Direct measurements of surface reflectance
7 Comparison of trend in growing season length (GSL among three biomes 210 F G D 200 y = 0.281x R² = Number of days y = 0.294x R² = y = 0.195x R² =
8 Regional trend of warm nights and cold nights warmnights coldnights Number of days y = 0.358x R² = y = x R² =
9 LULC Forest shrubland savanna Grasslands Permanent Wetlands Croplands Urban and Built-Up Natural Vegetation Mosaic Snow and Ice Barren Water Bodies AVHRR-Derived IGBP 1992 N I Desert biome II Grassland biome III Forest biome Km
10 MODIS-Derived IGBP 2004 N I Desert biome II Grassland biome III Forest biome Km
11
12 The Coupling Effects N Land Use Change and Hotspots in Inner Mongolia Km
13 Repeated ANOVA tests: Coupled Effects of Climate and Landuse on GPP & ET (1 Gross Primary Production (GPP SSE % Type Year Year*type total (2 Evapotranspiration (ET SSE % Type Year Year*type total
14 Moving Forward: Mongolia Plateau Two contrasting counties (IM & MG Adaptation as the central focus Natural and Human System as one Unit
15 Interactive Changes of Ecosystems and Societies on the Mongolian Plateau: Coupled Regulations from Land Use and Changing Climate US Institutions: Jiquan Chen (Univ of Toledo; Steve McNulty & Ge Sun (SGCP-USDA Chinese Inst.: Lin Zhen & Xiangzheng Deng (IGSNRR-CAS; Jian Ni, Ke Guo & Linghao Li (IBCAS-CAS Mongolian Inst.: Ochirbat Batkhishig & Dechingungaa Dorjgotov (IG, Mongolian Academy of Sciences Project Supporting Webpage: Land Use & Change Climate Change
16 Changes in three socioeconomic variables, temperature, and precipitation. While similar patterns between IM and MG exist, MG had significantly lower magnitudes of all three variables GDP per km^2, Y2 Population Density, Y1 Livestock Density (#/km^2, Y1 (a Inner Mongolia Population Density, Y1 GDP per km^2, Y1 Livestock Density (#/km^2, Y2 16 (b Mongolia Livestock Density (# per km IM MG Trend Annual Temperature (C Annual Precipitation (mm
17 Changes in climate (temperature, precipitation from 12 selected stations and land use in IM and MG in recent decades. Annual Temperature (C (a Inner Mongolia Forest Grassland Desert (b Mongolia Desert S. Grassland N. Grassland 500 Annual Precip (mm
18 Land Use Change c Innter Mongolia evergreen needleleaf forest evergreen broadleaf forest deciduous needleleaf forest deciduous broadleaf forest mixed forests closed shrublands open shrublands woody savannas savannas grasslands permanent wetlands croplands barren or sparsely vegetated urban and built-up cropland/natural vegetation mosaic permanent snow and ice water 50 d Mongolia evergreen needleleaf forest evergreen broadleaf forest deciduous needleleaf forest deciduous broadleaf forest mixed forests closed shrublands open shrublands woody savannas savannas grasslands permanent wetlands croplands urban and built-up cropland/natural vegetation mosaic permanent snow and ice barren or sparsely vegetated water
19 Objective To examine and model the interactive changes of NS and HS in the time and space of IM and MG under similar climate but different land-use conditions.
20 Table 1. Selected measures of the HS and NS as well as the interactions and feedbacks between the elements of the HS and NS Measure IM MG Human System (HS Population (POP( Population Density (POPD (No. km Livestock (LS (heads, GDP (billion $ GDP per capital ($ Livestock per person Natural System (NS Land Area (km (km (10.87 (% (19.06 Grassland (km (44.09 (% (46.36 Desert (km (44.98 (% (31.49 Temperature Increase ( T ( o C.decade GPP (Kg C.m 2 (STD ( (0.328 Total GPP (Pg C.year -1 ( Water Resource (WR, m 3.m GPP:WR (Mg C.m Interactions (NS ~ HS GPP:Pop (Mg C.Person GDP:GPP LS:POP (No.Person WR:Pop (m 3.person GPP:LS GDP:GPP ($.Mg C GDP:WR ($.m
21 Present situation of population migration in Mongolia The internal migration where the flow is oriented toward to Ulaanbaatar and the central region of MG has been a trend. Nearly 70% of the migrants is concentrated in such cities area as Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan, Orkhon and Selenge aimags or along the general roads and railway lines. Since 1990, 320 thousand have migrated from rural areas to Ulaanbaatar city and 34 thousands from cities to the countryside (J. Oyungerel, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, 2008.
22 Conceptual framework
23 Uliastay Ulaanbaatar Mongolia N EVI High :1 Low : 0 Inner Mongolia Baotou Huhehaote Veg/Soil plots Km Intensive flux towers Landsat
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