Shrimp Production Review

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Shrimp Production Review"

Chester Waters
5 years ago
Views:

2 Shrimp Production Review James L. Anderson Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems University of Florida Diego Valderrama University of Florida Darryl Jory Global Aquaculture Alliance

3 James Anderson Institute for Sustainable Food Systems University of Florida Dr. James Anderson is director of the Institute for Sustainable Food Systems and a Professor of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida. Previously, he led the World Bank s Global Program on Fisheries and Aquaculture. And earlier he chaired the Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics at the University of Rhode Island. Anderson was also the editor of Marine Resource Economics from 1999 through His recent work has focused on the role of seafood in food security, constraints to aquaculture development and seafood market analysis.

4 2015 Shrimp Produc5on Survey Issues & Challenges

5 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: Million MT Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% between EMS/AHPNS initially surfaced in China in 2009 and significantly impacted global production in Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

6 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: Million MT Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Average U.S. import price increased 17% between 2011 and Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

7 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: FAO Sta3s3cs Million MT Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Annual growth rate: 5.9% Based on FAO Produc5on went up by 6.3% between 2011 and Sources: FAO (2015) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

8 Million MT Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% Average U.S. import price fell 9% between 2013 and % Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

9 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: Million MT Looking forward, EMS is still a factor. In addition, EHP will impact production, especially in Asia. The industry will also be influenced by the current El Niño, which may be the strongest on record Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% Projected annual growth rate: 7.7% Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

10 Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: Million MT Impact of EMS: China, Thailand and Mexico reported the largest declines in production in 2012/2013. Recovery by 2017 will be driven mostly by increased output from Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Ecuador Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

11 Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: vs % 40% % 30% 20% 10% 10.40% 5.10% 10.30% 4.40% 5.20% 11.10% 6.40% 0% -10% -5.90% -4.40% Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

12 Million MT Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: Major Producers China is expected to recover by Thailand will only see a partial recovery, being displaced from second to fifth place in the region. Production increases in all major farming nations are expected by The largest increases are expected in Indonesia China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

13 Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: Thousand MT Malaysia has been heavily impacted by disease. Production declined by nearly 50% between 2010 and 2013, with further declines expected in Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

14 Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: vs % 40% % 30% 23.50% 20% 10.30% 10% 0% -10% -4.40% 5.10% 0.90% -2.90% 8.50% -1.30% -20% % China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

15 Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: vs % 20% 15% 20.60% % 10% 5% 0% 0.50% 2.20% 2.20% 1.40% 6.20% -5% -10% -15% -20% % Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

16 Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: Major Producers Thousand MT Ecuador is ramping up production as output from other countries declines. Production in 2017 is expected to be 22% higher than in Brazil expects to reach 85,000 tons by Mexico heavily impacted by EMS in 2013 and 2014: production down by 50%, with near full recovery by Ecuador Mexico Brazil Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2013; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

17 Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: Thousand MT FAO reported substantial increases in production of Honduran shrimp in 2013 but production had decreased by 2015 due to the effect of droughts. In general, Latin American countries expect production increases by Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Peru Venezuela Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

18 Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: Thousand MT Panama is expected to reach 10,000 tons by 2017; growth in Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba and Colombia will be more uneven Panama Belize Costa Rica Cuba Colombia Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

19 Average Annual Growth Rate 70% 60% 50% Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: vs % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 16.90% 16.70% 10.80% 9.60% 5.10% 7.10% 3.10% 6.50% 3.50% -2.30% % % % Ecuador Mexico Brazil Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Peru Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2013; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

20 Average Annual Growth Rate 15% 10% 7.90% 9.50% Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: vs % 14.40% 9.50% 5% 2.00% 2.30% 0% -5% -10% -15% -3.50% % -5.40% -1.70% -20% -25% -30% % Panama Belize Costa Rica Cuba Venezuela Colombia Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

21 Shrimp Aquaculture in Other Repor3ng Countries: Thousand MT Saudi Arabia will experience a major shift towards production of P. vannamei P. monodon P. monodon Saudi Arabia Madagascar Australia Sources: FAO (2015) for ; (2015) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

22 Million MT World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) by Species: % 73% 4.5 Percentages indicate the share of 4.0 P. vannamei. 67% 65% 70% % % 75% % 12% P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for

23 Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia by Species: Million MT % % 68% Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei. 63% 61% 66% % % % 0.2% P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2015) for ; FAO (2015) and (2014) for ; (2015) for

24 World Landings of Wild- Caught Shrimp by Species Million MT Others Northern w hite shrimp (Penaeus setiferus) Atlantic seabob (Xiphopenaeus kroyeri) Northern brow n shrimp (Penaeus aztecus) Banana praw n (Penaeus merguiensis) Argentine red shrimp (Pleoticus muelleri) Fleshy praw n (Penaeus chinensis) Giant tiger praw n (Penaeus monodon) Northern praw n (Pandalus borealis) Southern rough shrimp (Trachipenaeus curvirostris) Akiami paste shrimp (Acetes japonicus) Source: FAO (2015).

25 World Produc3on of Shrimp - - Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Million MT Aquaculture accounted for 51% of world shrimp supplies in % 50% 55% 51% % % Sources: FAO (2015); (2014, 2015). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei. Capture Fisheries Aquaculture

26 Million MT World Produc5on of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, 33% 42% 38% Others/NS P. merguiensis 6.0 with virtually all production coming from aquaculture. Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei. P. chinensis 5.0 Pandalus borealis % Trachypenaeus curvirostris 3.0 Acetes japonicus 2.0 P. monodon 1.0 P. vannamei Sources: FAO (2015); (2014, 2015). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

27 Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Aggregate % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5% 6% 10% 12% 18% 15% 15% 11% 9% 11% 16% 21% 17% 15% 10% 5% 10% 4% 11% 19% 25% 16% 9% 10% 14% 19% 17% 16% 11% US Imports - HLSO Asia Americas World 6% > <15 Source: (2015).

28 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 7% Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Comparison of Survey Data for Asia 7% 5% 5% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 10% 12% 10% 15% 22% 19% 20% 21% 29% 69% 30% 18% 16% 14% 19% 65% 64% 30% 23% 61% 6% 7% 17% 27% 12% 12% 13% 11% 15% 19% 11% 18% 43% 15% 16% 9% 9% 7% 5% 5% 15% 25% 18% % 41% 14% 42% 16% 50% 13% 8% 6% 39% 21% 17% 15% 10% 5% 49% 42% > <15 Disease problems in Asia led to the harvesting of smaller sizes since 2011.

29 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 16% 18% 16% Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas 6% 7% 11% 10% 15% 13% 16% 19% 22% 20% 20% 19% 15% 10% 4% 10% 15% 11% 8% 10% 14% 10% 12% 23% 22% 15% 9% 30% 13% 10% 40% 60% 17% 18% 24% 21% 22% 19% 18% 25% 18% 10% 8% 4% 7% 6% 6% 10% % 10% 4% 30% 11% 42% 14% 50% 61% 19% 25% 16% 9% 25% 60% > <15 There was also a temporary trend towards smaller sizes in Latin America in 2011 and 2012.

30 Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Size Categories - Survey 2015 Size Category Asia Americas World <15 Decrease/Stable Stable Decrease/Stable Decrease Decrease Decrease Decrease Stable Decrease/Stable Decrease/Stable Stable/Increase Decrease/Stable Decrease/Stable Stable/Increase Decrease/Stable Stable Decrease/Stable Stable Increase Stable Increase Increase Stable/Increase Increase >70 Increase Increase Increase China and Indonesia expect increased production of smaller counts.

31 2015 Survey Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Aggregate % 80% 60% 2% 7% 12% 40% 10% 9% 18% 24% 3% 6% 26% 9% 7% 16% 21% Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled 40% 17% 63% 19% Green / Head-off 20% 39% 22% 29% Green / Head-on 0% US Imports Asia Americas World

32 Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for Asia 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 11% 12% 8% 22% 20% 35% 19% 6% % 30% 22% 9% % 19% 18% 23% 28% 18% 24% % 4% 6% 12% 13% 8% 7% 22% 17% % 15% 18% 10% 33% % 25% 20% 23% % 24% 18% 30% % 9% 18% 24% 17% 22% % Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled Green / Head-off Green / Head-on

33 Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for China 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 9% 9% 4% 5% 9% 10% 18% 21% 10% 8% 27% 15% 20% 13% 4% 13% 15% 11% 25% 20% 16% 11% 22% 27% 14% 5% 31% 5% 30% 35% 33% 25% 15% 13% 5% 54% 48% 17% 15% 4% 5% % 9% % % % % 13% 22% 24% 3% 22% 2015 Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled Green / Head-off Green / Head-on There is a trend in China towards the production of green head-on/head-off and peeled shrimp relative to processed forms.

34 Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas 100% 80% 60% 6% 7% 7% 53% 46% 45% 12% 31% 3% 6% 3% 4% 14% 15% 34% 30% 24% 3% 6% 26% Other Forms Breaded Cooked 40% Peeled 20% 40% 44% 46% 50% 57% 52% 53% 63% Green / Head-off Green / Head-on 0% The growing share of the green head-on form reflects an increased presence of Ecuadorian shrimp in European and Asian markets.

35 Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Product Form - Survey 2015 Product Form Asia Americas World Green / Head- on Decrease Increase Stable Green / Head- off Increase Stable Stable/Increase Peeled Increase Stable/Decrease Increase Cooked Stable/Increase Stable Stable/Increase Breaded Increase Stable Increase Other Forms Stable/Decrease Decrease Stable/Decrease There is a clear trend for increased production of green / head-on shrimp in Ecuador for the European and Asian markets.

36 Diseases ***International market prices ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Environmental management Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel Banned chemicals / antibiotic use ***International trade barriers Infrastructure Market coordination Access to Credit Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture All Countries Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

37 Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture: 2015 Survey vs Survey International market prices Diseases Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Environmental management Access to disease-free broodstock Seed stock quality & availability International trade barriers Production costs - Fuel Access to Credit Production costs - Others Not Important Moderately Important Extremely Important

38 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture - Asia Diseases ***International market prices ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Environmental management Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Feed quality and availability Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Production costs - Fuel Infrastructure ***International trade barriers Market coordination Access to Credit Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

39 Diseases ***International market prices Production costs - Fuel Production costs - Others Seed stock quality & availability Access to disease-free broodstock ***International trade barriers Product quality control ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Feed quality and availability Access to Credit Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Market coordination Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users Environmental management Infrastructure 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture La3n America Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

40 Diseases International market prices Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Access to disease-free broodstock 2015 Survey Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture Asia vs. La3n America Production costs - Others Environmental management Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel Not Important Moderately Important Extremely Important Asia Americas

41 2015 Survey Global economic condi3ons will be be]er in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Bangladesh Agree India, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam Colombia, Cuba Egypt Neutral/No Opinion China, South Korea Belize, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru Australia, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Disagree Malaysia, Thailand Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela Strongly Disagree

42 2015 Survey Feed prices will be lower in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/No Opinion China, South Korea Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico Disagree Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam Belize, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Venezuela Australia, Egypt, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Strongly Disagree Malaysia Peru

43 2015 Survey The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Indonesia Agree Bangladesh, Taiwan Belize, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, Venezuela Egypt Neutral/No Opinion China, India, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Disagree Philippines, Thailand Australia Strongly Disagree

44 Trends in Trade:

45 Thousand MT U.S. Shrimp Imports: Expected to Go Up by 4% in Other 550 Peru Malaysia 400 Mexico China 250 Thailand Vietnam 100 Ecuador 50 - Indonesia * India Imports from Thailand have declined sharply since peaking in 2010 at 203,000 tons. Thai imports in 2014 were only 32% of the import volume in Imports in 2015 are expected to recover partially, from 65,000 to 72,000 tons. India, Indonesia and Ecuador have increased their shipments and become the top exporters to the U.S. market. Source: USDC/NMFS (2015) * Estimate

46 U.S. Landings of Wild- Caught Shrimp 200 Thousand MT Others Pink White Brown Source: USDC/NMFS (2015)

47 10.00 Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices USD/lb <15/lb >70/lb Peeled Composite Real prices increased sharply during 2013 but have been declining since Source: USDC/NMFS (2015)

48 9.00 P. monodon vs. P. vannamei: U.S. Wholesale Prices USD/lb (1.00) (2.00) Jan- 99 Jul- 99 Jan- 00 Jul- 00 Jan- 01 Jul- 01 Jan- 02 Jul- 02 Jan- 03 Jul- 03 Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul- 05 Jan- 06 Jul- 06 Jan- 07 Jul- 07 Jan- 08 Jul- 08 Jan- 09 Jul- 09 Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11 Jul- 11 Jan- 12 Jul- 12 Jan- 13 Jul- 13 Jan- 14 Jul- 14 Jan- 15 Jul- 15 Farmed, C&SA White, Farmed, Southeast Asian, Premium, White - Tiger Coinciding with falling supplies from Thailand, wholesale shrimp prices began rising since 2010 with the sharpest increase taking place in Prices have declined during 2014 and 2015 as other countries (India, Indonesia, Ecuador, Vietnam) increase their exports to the U.S. Source: Urner Barry (2015)

49 Conclusions Significant recovery occurred in 2014 Expected Global growth rate about +7% However, 2014 to 2015 expected global harvest down - 2% (- 5% Asia; +5% Americas) Disease - Biggest Constraint followed by market prices Expecta3ons Higher feed prices; Somewhat stronger shrimp markets (less confident than 2014) Mixed about global economic condi3ons (expecta3ons in 2014 were more bullish)

World supply and demand of tilapia

World supply and demand of tilapia by Helga Josupeit FAO Rome, October 2010 World tilapia production World tilapia production has been booming during the last decade, with output doubling from 830000 tonnes