Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

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1 Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

2 The U.S. Economic Outlook Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

3 The Double-Shock Economy Shock One: Housing and the Credit Crunch Shock Two: Oil at US$100/barrel The combination is dragging the United States economy into recession can Washington policy-makers ride to the rescue? Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 3

4 Employment Growth Has Turned Negative (Establishment employment, thousands of jobs) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 4

5 Recession Ahead Dampened by Foreign Trade (Annualized rate of growth) Real GDP Domestic Demand Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 5

6 Residential Construction: A Slump of Historic Proportions 6.5 (Residential structures investment, percent of GDP) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 6

7 Foreclosure Rate Has Hit New Highs (Percent of all home mortgage loans entering foreclosure) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 7

8 Widespread Home Price Declines OFHEO Purchase Only Index, Metro 2007Q4 Y/Y Percent Change Computed by Global Insight to to to to to 17.2 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 8

9 Bloated Supplies of Homes for Sale (Months supply at current selling rate, single-family homes) Existing Homes New Homes Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/2008 9

10 Housing Starts Dip Further, Prices to Fall 2.25 (Million units) (Year/year percent change) Housing Starts (Left scale) OFHEO House Price Index (Right scale) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

11 Consumer Sentiment Has Slipped into the Recession Zone 120 (Reuter/Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

12 Housing Wealth Has Supported Consumer Spending, But Is Now Turning Down 250 (Percent of household disposable income) Housing Wealth Housing Equity Mortgage Debt Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

13 Consumer Loan Standards Tightening (Net percent tightening standards) Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

14 Surging Energy Prices Are Wiping Out Real Wage Gains Once Again 3 (Percent change from a year earlier) Real Average Hourly Earnings Growth (CPI-deflated) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

15 Consumption Growth Will Fall Short of Income Growth in (Percent growth, real) Real Consumption Real Disposable Income Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

16 Emergency Stimulus from Washington US$107 billion in personal tax rebates (FY08) US$44 billion in extra depreciation (FY08) How big is the personal tax rebate? Consumers spend about US$2.5 trillion per quarter (not annualized) So a US$107 billion rebate is about 4.3% of quarterly spending Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

17 Household Tax Rebates Assumptions Rebates paid beginning in Q2 and Q3 Assuming that the government gets checks out in May or June there will be some help to Q2, but the big boost would be to Q3 Spending assumptions About 20% spent within three months About 40% spent within six months About 50% spent after one year Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

18 Fiscal Stimulus Pulls Growth into 2008: GDP (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth) Baseline Excl. Fiscal Stimulus Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

19 Fiscal Stimulus Pulls Growth into 2008: Consumer Spending (Real consumption, annualized rate of growth) Baseline Excl. Fiscal Stimulus Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

20 Impacts of Fiscal Stimulus (Percent change) Real GDP Baseline Without fiscal stimulus Real consumption Baseline Without fiscal stimulus Real equipment spending Baseline Without fiscal stimulus Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

21 Commercial Real Estate Loan Standards Tightening 100 (Net percent tightening standards for commercial real estate loans) Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

22 The Business Capital Spending Cycle: Construction Is Peaking (Percent change from a year earlier, real spending) Software & Equipment Buildings Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

23 Export-Led Growth 20 (Percent change from a year earlier, volumes) Real U.S. Exports Real U.S. Imports Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

24 The U.S. Dollar Hits New Lows 1.3 (2000=1.0, inflation-adjusted) Major Currency Index Other Important Trading Partners Index Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

25 Headline Inflation Is Spiking Higher as Energy and Food Prices Surge 5 (Percent change from a year earlier) All-Urban CPI Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

26 Core Consumer Inflation Not Yet Comfortable 3.0 (Ex-food and energy, percent change from a year earlier) Core Consumption (PCE) Price Index Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

27 But We Expect the Fed to Keep Cutting Interest Rates 7 (Percent) Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Yield Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

28 Bottom Line Economy slipping into recession Tax rebates, monetary stimulus should bring back growth in the second half of the year Fed has more work to do despite inflation risks Downside risk: double-dip recession economy contracts again in early 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

29 U.S. Economic Growth by Sector (Percent change unless otherwise noted) Real GDP Consumption Light vehicle sales (millions) Residential investment Housing starts (millions) Business fixed investment Government Exports Imports Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

30 Other Key Indicators (Percent unless otherwise noted) Employment (percent growth) Unemployment rate CPI inflation Oil prices (WTI, US$/bbl) Core PCE price inflation Federal funds rate year government bond yield Dollar (major currencies, 2000=1) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

31 The Canadian Economic Outlook Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

32 We Have Become More Pessimistic on 2008 Successive Forecasts of 2008 GDP (Percent) Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

33 No Recession in Canada (Real GDP, percent change annualized) Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 Canada U.S. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

34 Canada s s Growth is Uneven (2008 Real GDP, percent change) BC AL ON QU CA Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

35 Ontario Is Hurting the Most (Real GDP, percent change) Canada Ontario Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

36 Canada s s Unemployment Rate at Record Low (Percent) Canada US Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

37 Canada s s Housing Holding Up (Indexed, 2006Q1 = 100) Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 Canada U.S. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

38 The Interest Rate Gap Reverses (Three-month T-bills, yields) Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 Canada U.S. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

39 Canadian Dollar Crests (U.S. cents) Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

40 Current Account Crumbles (Billions of dollars) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

41 Trade Balance Tumbles (Billions of dollars) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

42 Question and Answer During this time, you may ask a question over the phone by dialing *1. Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

43 Thank You Visit our Web site at Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 02/

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