IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE

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1 IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE NEW ZEALAND WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE, WELLINGTON 2014 KOBAD BHAVNAGRI / / // / Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

2 ABOUT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE 200 staff in 13 offices worldwide Objective: serve clients with the best intelligence on finance, technology and policy developments in clean energy, energy efficiency and carbon markets San Francisco New York Washington DC London Zurich Beijing Tokyo New Delhi Hong Kong Singapore Sao Paulo Cape Town Sydney Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

3 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

4 PRICE COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY: 2014 (LCOE) 37 $/MWh onshore wind 37 $/MWh geothermal 80 $/MWh solar Note: Levelised cost of electricity excludes impact of subsidies. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

5 WIND IS NOW CHEAPER THAN NEW COAL LCOE IN AUSTRALIA (AUD/MWH) Coal CCGT Note: Excludes carbon price. Levelised cost of energy is the dollar per megawatt-hour price for an inflation adjusted, fixed-price power off-take agreement that, taking into account all project specific costs, offers the sponsor and/or project developer the minimum equity return necessary to undertake the project without subsidy. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

6 LARGE-SCALE PV WILL ALSO SOON BE COMPETITIVE LCOE IN AUSTRALIA (AUD/MWH) Note: Excludes carbon price. Levelised cost of energy is the dollar per megawatt-hour price for an inflation adjusted, fixed-price power off-take agreement that, taking into account all project specific costs, offers the sponsor and/or project developer the minimum equity return necessary to undertake the project without subsidy. Coal CCGT Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

7 US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H H ($/MWH) AZ CA CO NM NV NY TX 50 0 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. PPA price is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the year1 selling price. 250 MW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

8 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Installations forecast to grow 37% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

9 GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES Forecast Nuclear Forecast 290 Other Oil Biomass & waste Hydro Gas Coal Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

10 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (GW) By 2030 renewables will account for 50% of installed power generation capacity GW 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Marine Solar thermal Small-scale PV Solar PV Offshore wind Wind EfW Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: EfW is energy from waste, Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

11 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast Actual IEA Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

12 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast Actual IEA Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

13 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast Actual IEA Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

14 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast IEA Actual Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

15 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast IEA Actual Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

16 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast IEA Actual Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

17 FORECASTING INSTALLED RENEWABLE GENERATION CAPACITIES (GW) Forecast GREMO 2013 IEA Actual Note: Renewables exclude biomass and hydro. IEA base case forecasts shown. Source: IEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

18 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

19 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

20 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

21 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

22 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

23 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

24 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

25 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

26 2014 BNEF SUMMIT THEME PHASE CHANGE: NEW MARKET STRUCTURES NEW BUSINESS MODELS Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

27 INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY IN GERMANY ($ BN) Cumulative capex spent $166 billion Other Wind Solar Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

28 CHANGES IN GENERATING MIX IN GERMANY (TWH) 700 Thermal Q1 2014: Renewable energy provided 28% of German electricity Other renewables Biomass- & liquids PV 200 Wind 100 Hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

29 TOP TEN EUROPEAN UTILITIES MARKET CAP (BN EUR) Top ten European utilities 0 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Note: Data includes ten largest companies by 2012 market cap. Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

30 GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE (GW) JULY JULY Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

31 CHINA BENDING THE ARC: INVESTMENT NEW CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ($ BN) WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY ADD (GW) Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Investment figures include all clean energy sectors (renewable power, biofuels, EST etc) and all new investment asset classes. Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

32 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY GW Renewable energy 68% of new capacity Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April Oil Gas Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council

33 CHINA DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty Li Keqiang Premier of the People's Republic of China March 2014 Credit: Bloomberg Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

34 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY , 2020 & 2030 GW Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April Oil Gas Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council

35 MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS Canada Norway UK Poland Mexico USA Algeria Libya China Brazil Australia 200 trillion cubic feet Argentina South Africa Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011 Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

36 ECONOMICS OF SHALE GAS FRACKING LIKELY PRICE RANGE ($/MMBTU) NO. OF SHALE GAS WELLS FRACKED UK 1 China 200 US 105, , , ,000 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Wall Street Journal Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

37 GLOBAL ANNUAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES 2011 & ,000, ,000 52,000 85,000,000 (4% CAGR) 1,650,000 (52% CAGR) 206,000 (99% CAGR) EVs Hybrids Total Note: Numbers are rounded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

38 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH) 10,000 1, Cost-competitiveness (by total cost of ownership) H H EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 43% SINCE Tesla's Gigafactory ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Consumer LiB experience curve BNEF EV LiB cost forecast Cumulative prod. Historic consumer LiB prices Historic EV battery pack prices capacity (MWh) Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars. Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

39 QAT KUW ANG LIB VEN ECU IRQ NIG ALG IRAN OPEC FISCAL BREAK-EVEN OIL PRICES AND EV COSTS, 2013 $ per barrel UAE SAUDI ARABIA Nissan Leaf (EV) wins Honda Civic (gasoline) wins 25 mbd Note: Based on normal usage patterns, 10,000 miles per year driven Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, APICORP Research Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

40 QAT KUW ANG LIB VEN ECU IRQ NIG ALG IRAN OPEC FISCAL BREAK-EVEN OIL PRICES AND EV COSTS, 2013 $ per barrel Note: Based on normal usage patterns, 10,000 miles per year driven UAE SAUDI ARABIA mbd Nissan Leaf (EV) wins Honda Civic (gasoline) wins Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, APICORP Research Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

41 QAT KUW ANG LIB VEN ECU IRQ NIG ALG IRAN OPEC FISCAL BREAK-EVEN OIL PRICES AND EV COSTS, 2018 $ per barrel Note: Based on normal usage patterns, 10,000 miles per year driven UAE SAUDI ARABIA mbd Nissan Leaf (EV) wins Honda Civic Nissan (gasoline) Leaf wins (EV) wins Honda Civic (gasoline) wins Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, APICORP Research Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

42 PHASE CHANGE - NEWSPAPERS Total US newspaper ad revenue ($m) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Invention of the internet 1992 Invention of the browser 2006 Founding 1997 Invention of of Twitter the smartphone 24 years Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April

43 IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE KOBAD BHAVNAGRI, KBHAVNAGRI@BLOOMBERG.NET MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Gas Nuclear SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets sales.bnef@bloomberg.net

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