It Was Never Going To Be Easy

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1 It Was Never Going To Be Easy Stephen Toplis, Head of Research July 2010

2 Introduction Global power shift sustained Average outlook on the improve Fiscal constraints binding Domestic rebalance under way Retailers and builders pressured Potential growth low So inflationary pressures remain 2

3 Over the Top Annual average % change Consensus GDP 7.0 Twelve-Month Ahead Forecast Global Asia/Pacific New Zealand Monthly Source: Consensus Economics, BNZ 3

4 But Not Too Bad Annual average % change 4.0 Global Growth Calendar Years Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Source: Consensus, BNZ Forecast Date 4

5 Improving On Average Annual average % change Trading Partner Growth Australia USA Japan Eurozone China UK Total Country 5

6 Changing Power Base Continues % change China The Roll of China Consensus Trading Partner Average Source: EcoWin, Consensus Economics, BNZ Quarterly 6

7 NZ Holds Its Own Annual average % change A Growth Comparison ( ) Australia USA New Zealand Japan UK Eurozone Country 7

8 But Do You Believe It? Ann % change 6 5 NZ's Trading-Partner Growth Merchandise trade weighted Tourism weighted Quarterly Source: EcoWin, Statistics NZ, Consensus Economics, BNZ 8

9 Global Headwinds Are Severe Fiscal concerns hold the key Monetary tightening too Banking regulation unhelpful The emergence of the austere consumer? The housing market overhang Demographic Issues Esp Japan, Italy and China 9

10 Fiscal High debt servicing costs Private sector crowded out Expenditure constraint Higher taxes 10

11 Fiscal Horrors Source: Reuters EcoWin 11

12 Closer to Home % change 7 Gross Domestic Product Trend Annual Annual average Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly 12

13 A Bumpy Ride of Economic Activity % change Actual Year Ended 31 December Consumption Private Public Total Capital Formation Total Domestic Demand Change in Stocks* GNE** Exports Imports Expenditure on GDP GDP (Production) * Percentage point contribution to GDP growth ** Gross National Expenditure 13

14 Changing Composition Annual average % change 6 Growth Composition 5 Last five years Next five years Govt Cons Pvt Cons Investment Exports Imports GDP Source: BNZ, Statistics New Zealand 14

15 Government Pulls Its Head In Annual average % change 7 Government Consumption Quarterly Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ 15

16 Nirvana or Delusion? % of GDP 35 Share of GDP Exports Private Consumption (rhs) Investment Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Quarterly 57 16

17 Housing Pays the Price? Ann % ch in 3m average House sales -8 (fwd 3 months) Monthly Source: REINZ, BNZ House Price Inflation And Sales REINZ median house price (lhs) Level (s.a.)

18 Construction Constrained % change Residential Construction Annual average Annual Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly 18

19 Looks Better Than It Is Real seasonally Adjusted $m Residential Building 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Trend 1,400 1,200 1,

20 Retail Constrained Too % change Real Retail Sales Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly Annual Annual average Next Five Years 20

21 Can Exports Rescue Us? Annual average % 25 Export Growth Services 10 Goods Quarterly Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ 21

22 Pricing is Helpful Index: Base 1950 = Real Milksolids Payout Ten year average Long run average September Years Source: BNZ, MAF 22

23 But Can It Be Sustained? Annual % change 60 NZ Commodity Export Prices World prices NZD prices Monthly Source: ANZ, BNZ 23

24 But Still Not Enough? 4-qtr sum, real $m 60,000 55,000 50,000 Real New Zealand Trade 4-qtr sum, real $m 5,000 3,000 1,000 45,000-1,000 40,000 35,000-3,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Exports (lhs) Imports (lhs) Balance (rhs) -5,000-7,000-9,000 15, Quarterly Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ -11,000 24

25 But Still Not Enough? Savings/Disposable Income % 8 Household Savings Ratio 6 4 BNZ Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Annual to March 25

26 Fiscal Problems Afoot? Annual average % change Economic Growth Budget Trend BNZ Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ, RBNZ Quarterly 26

27 Potential Growth Constrained Labour supply an issue So too investment Supply of capital limited And the fiscal constraint 27

28 Modest Employment Growth Annual % change Employment and GDP GDP Employment Source: BNZ Capital, Statistics NZ Quarterly 28

29 Yields Very Low Unemployment % Unemployment Rate Quarterly Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Non-inflationary level? 29

30 With Heroic Population Assumption Net Migration (000s) 50 Migration and Working Age Population Annual % change Net Immigration Working Age Population (rhs) Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Quarterly

31 And Heroic Participation % 70 Participation Rate Quarterly Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ 31

32 Squeezing Blood from a Stone? % Participation Rate NZ - highest in decades US - lowest in decades Quarterly Source: Statistics NZ, Ecowin, BNZ 32

33 Providing Pressure on Wage Costs Annual % change 10 Unit Wage Costs and 90 Day Bank Bills % day bank bills (rhs) UWC (lhs) Source: BNZ Quarterly

34 Recent Investment Track Unhelpful % of GDP Plant And Machinery Investment Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly 34

35 Potential Growth Limited Annual % change Potential Growth Estimates BNZ Hodrick Prescott Quarterly Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER, RBNZ, BNZ. 35

36 So Inflation Inflated Annual % change Consumer Price Index Band peak 2.0 Band mid point 1.0 Band low Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Quarterly 36

37 Interest Rates Headed Higher % 10 NZ Cash Rate % Inflation expectations, no credit constraints 6 5 Neutral? % Inflation expectations, with current credit constraints Source: BNZ, RBNZ Monthly 37

38 NZD Lower? % overvaluation 25 Relative NZD Valuations (as of July 27, 2010) Source: BNZ -8.3 AUD EUR TWI GBP JPY USD NZD Crosses 38

39 Key NZ Themes A necessary rebalance Tough for retailers and builders Some hope for exporters A modest but improved growth profile A positive relative position But will it be enough? 39

40 Disclaimer This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. BNZ Capital, a division of Bank of New Zealand, strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither BNZ Capital nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication. 40

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