Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
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1 Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management 2018 All rights reserved.
2 Welcome All participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-response session after the presentation. This webcast is being recorded. Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
3 Our Checklist: What we observe as the Current State: 1. Consumer Spending Good Good 2. Business Investment Good Good Future Outlook: 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Ticking up Unsure 5. Inflation Ticking up Unsure, but risk of higher inflation is rising 6. Federal Reserve and Treasury Raising short-term rates and reducing balance sheet 7. Trade Tariffs and counter-tariffs: China, NAFTA, EU Raising short-term rates and reducing balance sheet Unclear 8. Regulation Slow improvement Slow improvement 9. Europe & Japan Turkey experiencing real problems, Italian gov t yields moving up Turkey problems don t spread, Italy problems may worsen as ECB ends bond buying 10. China Potentially disruptive Potentially disruptive Source: Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc.
4 U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %) Estimated 3 Percent Year Source: Bloomberg; Estimated data OECD
5 U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 1947-July U-6 Unemployed + Part Time + Margin % of (Labor Force + Margin) U-3 US Unemployment Rate Total in Labor Force 12 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Year
6 Consumer U.S. Consumer Confidence 1995-July 2018 (Monthly) Recessions Index Value Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Source: Conference Board; Data Normalized 1985=100 Year
7 Consumer 550,000 Monthly Retail Sales Retail Trade and Food Services: U.S. Total Seasonally Adjusted Sales 2007-July , ,000 $ Million 400, , , ,000 Total Sales Total Sales Ex. Auto 200,000 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 Date Source: Bloomberg
8 Credit
9 Business 110 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 2005-July2018 (Monthly) Index Value Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business NFIB; Data Normalized 1986=100
10 Inflation 6 U.S. CPI Urban Consumers YoY % 1997-July2018 Non Seasonally Adjusted Percent Fed Target -3 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Date Source: Bloomberg
11 Velocity Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply 1959-June2018 (Quarterly) Velocity of Money = Ratio of monetary aggregate M2 to Nominal GDP Turnover Rate Year Source: Bloomberg
12 7 6 Interest Rates 2007-August 21, Year Mortgage Rate (National Average) 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate 5 Percent 4 3 Inflation Year Source: Bloomberg
13 Fed Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet 2007-August 22, QE2 begins QE1 begins QE3 begins Dollars (Trillion) Target Direct Holdings Emergency facilities 1/3/ /3/2007 7/3/2008 4/3/2009 1/3/ /3/2010 7/3/2011 4/3/2012 1/3/ /3/2013 7/3/2014 4/3/2015 1/3/ /3/2016 7/3/2017 4/3/2018 1/3/ /3/2019 7/3/2020 Securities held outright Date Source: Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System
14 Turkish Lira Brazilian Real South African Rand Chinese Renminbi Foreign Exchange (Per U.S. Dollar) Normalized at 100 on 1/3/ August 22, 2018 US begins raising rates US begins QT Steel/Al tariffs /2013 4/2013 7/ /2013 2/2014 5/2014 8/ /2014 3/2015 6/ /2015 1/2016 4/2016 7/ /2016 2/2017 5/2017 9/ /2017 3/2018 6/2018 Date Source: Bloomberg
15 Tariff Timeline US Action Jan 2018 announced tariffs on washing machines and solar panels March 2018 announced tariffs on steel and aluminum effective June March 2018 US announces tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports effective July Aug US threatens tariffs on auto imports US threatens tariffs on additional $200bn Chinese imports International Reaction EU retaliatory tariffs on 180 products Mexican retaliatory tariffs Chinese retaliatory tariffs on 128 products Canada announces matching tariffs South Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil receive exemptions. China announces $50bn in tariffs effective July Aug. Juncker and Trump meet, agree to work towards a zero tariff deal. China promises non-specific retaliation. As of 8/ 20 US and China have scheduled a series of discussions on topic. US currently appears to be in substantive talks with Mexico and EU at least the rhetoric has cooled off.
16 10 Year Sovereign Interest Rate 2005-August 23, Italy Germany Percent Date Source: Bloomberg
17 1,600 1,400 1,200 * Estimated S&P 500 Index Sales and Earnings per Share* (Yearly) Dollars per Share 1, Dollars per Share Sales per Share Earnings per Share (Left Axis) (Right )Axis NOTE: The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance of EPS growth is not an indicator of future earnings growth. * Source: Bloomberg: forward estimates 2012 Year
18 Price/Earnings Ratio P/E Ratio * Estimated S&P 500 Index (Yearly) Price/Sales Ratio Price/Earnings Ratio (Right Axis) (Left Axis) Price/Sales Ratio Price/Sales Ratio Year NOTE: The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance of EPS growth is not an indicator of future earnings growth * Source: Bloomberg ( forward estimates)
19 Our Checklist: What we observe as the Current State: 1. Consumer Spending Good Good 2. Business Investment Good Good Future Outlook: 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Ticking up Unsure 5. Inflation Ticking up Unsure, but risk of higher inflation is rising 6. Federal Reserve and Treasury Raising short-term rates and reducing balance sheet 7. Trade Tariffs and counter-tariffs: China, NAFTA, EU Raising short-term rates and reducing balance sheet Unclear 8. Regulation Slow improvement Slow improvement 9. Europe & Japan Turkey experiencing real problems, Italian gov t yields moving up Turkey problems don t spread, Italy problems may worsen as ECB ends bond buying 10. China Potentially disruptive Potentially disruptive Source: Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc.
20 Questions and Responses Click on the orange arrow in the upper right-hand corner of your screen to open the control panel where you may submit questions. For some devices, look for the question mark at the top or bottom of your screen. We will contact you if we did not have time to respond to your question during the event. Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management The comments made during this webcast are opinions and are not intended to be investment advice or a forecast of future events.
21 Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
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