The transition to sustainable energy

Transcription

1 ATSE Symposium The transition to sustainable energy Peter Littlewood 8 Nov 2016

2 The changing world economy Index Economies less energy intensive Electricity less carbon intensive GDP Electricity Carbon dioxide Population Data from World Bank, BP GDP is 2011 international $ at PPP

3 International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) Historical emissions Projections Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent

4 International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) Historical emissions International meeting in Dec countries (95% of global emissions) Committed reductions in emissions Agreed target of well below 2 C Improve commitments every five years Projections Commitments in 2015 Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent

5 International cooperation Greenhouse gas emissions (Gt CO 2 ) Historical emissions Transition to a low carbon economy: Renewable energy, low carbon energy Integration of supply and demand markets Energy efficiency, storage, advanced metering Demand response, dynamic pricing Projections Commitments in 2015 Required for 2 C Data from CAIT/WRI, BNEF Total GHG emissions including land change expressed as Gt CO2 equivalent

6 Global greenhouse gas emissions Global greenhouse gases (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.7% 13.9% 24.5% Data from WRI/CAIT

7 Temperature anomaly : 0.90 C above 20 th century average 2016: 0.99 C for January to September Temperature anomaly ( C) Data from National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Temperature relative to the 20 th century average

8 Global investment in electricity generation (US$ billion) US$ 348 billion invested in clean energy in 2015 (highest ever) (US$ billion) Declining investment in fossil fuel technologies

9 Investment in renewable energy by region (US$ billion) USA Rest of Americas Europe Africa, Middle East China Rest of Asia Pacific Data from UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

10 Investment in renewable energy by technology (2015) Solar Wind Biomass % of renewable energy investment is in wind and solar power Hydro 4 Biofuels 3 Geothermal 2 Marine investment (US$ billion) Half a million solar panels installed per day around the world Two wind turbines installed per hour in China Data from UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

11 Wind power leaders (end 2015) Wind power capacity (MW) 0 50, , ,000 China USA Germany India Spain UK Canada France Italy 23,025 25,088 13,603 11,205 10,358 8,958 44,947 74,471 China s target was 200,000 MW by 2020 Now increased to 250,000 MW by ,362 GWEC figures, 2015

12 Solar power leaders (end 2015) Solar power capacity (MW) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 China Germany Japan USA Italy UK France Spain Australia India 8,780 6,580 5,440 5,070 5,050 18,920 25,620 34,410 39,700 China s target was 100,000 MW by 2020 Now increased to 150,000 MW by 2020 India s target was 20,000 MW Increased to 100,000 MW by ,530 Data from BP, EPIA, IEA, PVPS (some estimated) Utility and distributed; PV and CSP

13 Feed in tariffs ( ) and auctions ( ) USD/MWh Solar PV USD/MWh Onshore wind Data from BNEF

14 Solar module costs 100 US$ 77.0 / Watt Silicon PV cells cost (US$/Watt) Exponential experience curve Cost falls by 25% when the installed capacity doubles US$ 0.4/W ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative installations (MW) BNEF and other sources Module cost only; total installation cost varies with site

15 Wind farm capacity factors Capacity factor (%) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Increasing hub heights Longer blades Improved blade designs Better control systems Australia Europe, USA China India Various sources Typical capacity factors against turbine installation date

16 Levelised costs (global range) Levelised cost (USD/MWh) Imported coal Local coal Low wind speed High wind speed Low irradiance High irradiance New Old Coal Wind Solar Nuclear Wind and solar costs: do not include intermittency Coal costs: do not include carbon Data from various publicly available sources

17 Comparison with Australian wholesale market prices AUD/MWh Wind Solar Queensland Victoria Tasmania New South Wales South Australia Snowy Converted at 1 AUD = 0.76 USD

18 Comparison with Australian wholesale market prices AUD/MWh New coal fired generation New gas fired generation Wind Solar Queensland Victoria Tasmania New South Wales South Australia Snowy Converted at 1 AUD = 0.76 USD

19 The growth of renewable energy Urgency Climate data Air quality Policy support in some countries Economics Lower capital costs Improved performance More competition

20 Global electricity generation 10.8% Nuclear 39.4% Coal Total 24,098 TWh 16.8% Hydro 21.6% Gas 4.4% Oil 2.1% Biomass 3.5% Wind 1.1% Solar 0.3% Geothermal Data from IEA, BP, Shift Project, World Biomass Association

21 Australia electricity generation 61.2% Coal 7.4% Hydro Total 248 TWh 1.4% Biomass 4.1% Wind 2.0% Oil 2.0% Solar 21.9% Gas Data from Australian Government, Chief Economist

22 New South Wales electricity generation 81.1% Coal Total 67 TWh 8.2% Gas 6.3% Hydro 1.3% Biomass 1.3% Wind 1.6% Solar Data from Australian Government, Chief Economist

23 Average wind speeds by latitude Latitude Data from 3 Tier, NASA Average wind speed (m/s) Average wind speed (m/s)

24 Australia s weather CSDMS, University of Colorado

25 China 145,400MW India 23,000MW USA 74,500MW Wind energy resources Good (6 7m/s) Excellent (>7m/s) Germany 45,000MW

26 Wind energy resources Good (6 7m/s) Excellent (>7m/s) Data from Australian Government, Geoscience Australia, Windlab Systems

27 World leaders in solar photovoltaic power (end 2015) USA 25,600MW Germany 39,700MW China 43,500MW Japan 34,400MW 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Solar intensity kwh/m 2 /year

28 Australia s sunlight intensity on a world scale Solar intensity in USA (25,600MW of solar power) Solar intensity in China (43,500MW of solar power) Solar intensity in Germany (39,700MW of solar power) Solar intensity in Japan (34,400MW of solar power)

29 Wind speed Germany India China USA Australia Solar intensity Germany Japan China USA Australia

30 How much land do we need?

31 How much land do we need?

32 Country scale renewable energy Japan India USA China Land areas to generate all electricity from wind or solar

33 Tidal energy Tides of greater than 1m average range

34 Tidal range Areas with the highest tidal range equivalent to around 100W/m 2 Comparable to the highest tidal ranges worldwide Tidal range (m)

35 Wave power (kw/m) South coast of Australia has some of the best wave resources in the world

36 Wave energy Wave power (kw/m) 50TWh/year Data from Geoscience Australia

37 20% of electrical demand from marine power by 2050? Australia (South coast) Wave power (kw/m) Australia (Northwest) Tidal range (m)

38 Australia s geothermal heat Temperature at 5km depth ( C) Data from Australian Government, Geoscience Australia

39 Uranium

40 Known uranium deposits Main users USA France Russia China South Korea Ukraine UK Main suppliers Kazakhstan Canada Australia Niger Namibia Russia Uzbekistan Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves (29% of the World total) Data from World Nuclear Association

41 Coal Million tonnes Million tonnes ,200 1, Composite data from various sources UK coal consumption USA coal consumption No coal fired power generation after 2025

42 -4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12, Energy (PJ) Australia s coal Export Domestic

43 Energy (PJ) Coal markets 2000 to ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Up to 90% of Australian coal exports go to these five countries Domestically produced coal Imported coal China China India Japan Korea Taiwan Data from BP Reducing coal consumption Imported coal will drop first Increasing domestic coal Imported coal will decline Starting to reduce coal consumption to meet climate obligations China may increase coal exports as it reduces its domestic consumption

44 Energy supply and use is in transition Coal and oil were 20 th century fuels Big decisions needed for 21 st century Government policy support Private sector investment and innovation Australia needs an economy without coal Australia has almost every source of primary energy Low carbon technology is an opportunity Australia as a leader in clean energy markets?