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1 The New Driers for Black Sea and World Grain Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

2 Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.2% in 2013 (s 2.7% in 2012) drien primarily by gains in liestock/dairy prices. Total 2013 world meat production down.5%. Beef prices to gain 5.4%, pork 3.5%, poultry 5.7% and milk prices 4.9% world food CPI to gain een with lower grain prices the year of the species! Newest Country Combination MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, S Korea and Turkey) which represent largest new market for ag goods ($29 Bil collectiely s PRC at $23 Bil). World ag import gains to MIST countries are +61% in the past 5 years. Mexico holds the best potential going forward if security is addressed. North America will be energy self sufficient by The big question is how this will impact the US dollar? Fracking will occur around the world by World Farmland prices currently peaking and could correct 5-35% depending on how fast interest rates rise and China s future import demand of soy/grain. Bio Fuel Boom is mature rising caloric intake now has to kick in for bull markets Ukraine/Russian Crisis has pushed fund managers to look for safety against a drop in equity prices and hae bought corn/wheat/soyoil as insurance. The grains are seen as cheap against the prices of the past 3 years. There has been a rush of bullish enthusiasm! Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

3 And London and New York Funds ran to Ag Futures Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

4 World Market Driers for 2014? China will become a more important drier of world ag demand with world bio fuel industries mature. How will China s new farm policies impact world grain trade? And what impact will China s slowing economic growth hae on commodity trade? Will China import 8.5 MMTs of wheat and 5-7 MMTs of corn in 2014/15? Indian exports of wheat and corn are likely to rise in 2014 amid large harests and a decline in the Rupee. Will India further subsidize wheat exports to capture world demand? India has quietly become the world s 3 rd largest exporter of beef. World Coarse Grain demand increased 99 MMTs during the 2013/14 crop year. Is the demand increase pipeline restocking or actual new feed/processing use? Will Argentine farmers be able to store ast amounts of grain and soybeans against Go t desires to raise taxes and hard currency reenue? Is it a good bet to think that Argentina will be different a year from now? 2014/15 is filled with interest and trading opportunities. Unless the political crisis between The Ukraine and Russia worsens, it s the maturation of world bio fuel industries that will be the most important drier into This means that world grain demand will grow more slowly in coming years compared to the period from Aderse weather is needed for lasting bullish price trends. Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

5 Drier #1 -FRACKING and Shale Gas in the US (and world)! Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

6 Energy Production Growth Forecast into 2017 United States Iraq Canada Nigeria Libya OPEC NGL UAE Angola Latin America Biofuels Former USSR Processing Gains Kuwait Venezuela OECD Asia Oceania Other Europe Asia ex China China Qatar Ecuador Africa Saudi Arabia Algeria OECD Europe Middle East Mexico & Others Iran , ,576 1,961 2,521-1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 US NGLs US Crude Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

7 Fracking to go Global into 2020 A World Awash in Gas Copyright 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

8 Ukraine s Shale Gas Deposit - 4 th Largest in the World! Copyright 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

9 US Dollar to gain as the US becomes the Economic Growth Engine of the World Copyright 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

10 What this means for the World Grain Bull? Copyright 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

11 What this means for the World Grain Bull? Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

12 Change in World Grain Use Since MMTs of Grain for Biofuels in 13 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

13 US Consumption of Gasoline in Decline Since 2008 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

14 Delta in US Corn Ethanol Production No Need for More US Corn Acres! Mil Bu (200) (400) (600) Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

15 USDA Forecasts Flat US Ethanol Demand into 2022! Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

16 The Price Skews in Corn to be shifted downward in 2014 and beyond Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

17 Global Industrial Veg Oil Demand Growing, but at a Slower Pace MMTs US China Malaysia EU Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

18 Soyoil s Heating Oil Relationship: Disconnecting /Lb Soyoil Heating Oil 80 $/Gal 4, , ,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0 0, Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

19 CBOT Corn s. US WTI Crude Disconnecting? $/Bu Corn Crude Oil $/Bbl Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

20 Drier #2 World Meat Demand Starting to Ebb Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

21 Growth in World Meat Consumption Flattening! 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% BRIC US/EU 0% Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

22 Rising Chinese Meat Prices cutting Demand? Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

23 US Per Capita Meat Consumption Lowest Since 1985! Lbs Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

24 The Aging of the US Population: % 65 Years and Oer Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

25 North American Cattle and Hog Numbers Since 1990 No Growth Mil Hogs Cattle Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

26 US Monthly Hog and Cattle Prices since 1990 $165 $145 $125 $105 $85 $65 $45 Hogs Lie Cattle $ Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

27 Years to Reerse Pounds of US Beef/Capita Trend Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

28 PED In Hogs will like impact 95% of All US Hog Herds by 2015 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

29 Historic Rally in US Pork Prices Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

30 Drier #3 Rising Competition for World Grain Export Share! Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

31 World Corn, Wheat and Soy Trade MMTs Corn Wheat Soybeans Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

32 World Corn Trade South America and the Black Sea Soaring MMTs EU + US S America + Black Sea Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

33 Non US Corn Production - A Record 63% of Total MMTs Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

34 ABU Corn Exports Reach 65% of The World Feed Grain Trade. Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

35 US Share of World Trade Corn, Wheat, Soy: 30% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

36 Big-8 Wheat Exports by Month: Re- Stocking by Importer? Pipelines? Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

37 Re-Stocking By World Corn Importers 4 Months after Wheat? Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

38 World Corn Trade to Seasonally Decline Unknowns on competition? Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

39 Drier #4 The Growing Importance of SE Asia in World Grain Trade Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

40 Chinese GDP Slowing! 7.1% GDP in 2014 as Exports Slow 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

41 Chinese Core and Food Inflation Index Food Core Jan-14 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

42 Chinese PMI Index Січ.14 Жов.13 Лип.13 Кві.13 Січ.13 Жов.12 Лип.12 Кві.12 Січ.12 Жов.11 Лип.11 Кві.11 Січ.11 Жов.10 Лип.10 Кві.10 Січ.10 Жов.09 Лип.09 Кві.09 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

43 Chinese Real Estate Climate Index Jul-13 Sep-12 No-11 Jan-11 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Sep-07 No-06 Jan-06 Mar-05 May-04 Jul-03 Sep-02 No-01 Jan-01 Mar-00 May-99 Jul-98 Sep-97 No-96 Jan-96 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

44 GDP in Coastal East Slowing! Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

45 Per Capita GDP Rates in Asia (US $) $8 000 China $1 800 India $7 000 $1 600 $6 000 $5 000 $4 000 $1 400 $1 200 $1 000 $800 $3 000 $600 $2 000 $400 $1 000 $200 $ $ Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

46 The Value of the Yuan s the US Dollar and Copper Copper (Cents/Lb) 5,0 Copper Yuan Yuan/USD 0,17 4,5 0,17 0,16 4,0 0,16 3,5 0,15 3,0 0,15 0,14 2,5 0,14 Кві 14 Січ 14 Жов Лип Кві 13 Січ 13 Жов Лип Кві 12 Січ 12 Жов Лип Кві 11 Січ 11 Жов Лип Кві 10 Січ 10 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

47 Chinese Wheat Production - Record 126 MMTs in 2014? MMTs ARC Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

48 Chinese Wheat Imports Since MMTs in 2014/15? MMTs Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

49 Chinese Corn Stocks are the largest in a decade at 71 MMTs! MMTs Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

50 China Soybean Imports since 95 and Percent of World Trade MMTs 80 Chinese Imports % of World Trade 70% 70 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10 10% % Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

51 China has aeraged US Soy purchases of 1.7 MMTs/week Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

52 Learning from a Year Ago, China did not want to get caught in BZ Logistics Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

53 Seasonal Top Already Reached in Brazilian Soy Loadnig Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

54 The China case of Soy Supply Indigestion Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

55 The Long Road Ahead for World Agriculture Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

56 Per Capita Food Consumption (kcal per capita per day) World Latin America & Caribean South Asia Industrialized Nations East Asia Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

57 World GDP Growth in 2014 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

58 Year on Year Difference on World Coarse Grain Demand since 1961 MMTs Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

59 Global Grain Demand tied to Supply or Residual Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

60 Taper Tantrum started in December with QE3 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

61 World Grain Area and Production in 2014/15 Area (Mil HA) ARC 14 Change 5 Yr Ag Total R Wheat Corn R Barley Production (MMTs) ARC 14 Change 5 Yr Ag Total 1, , ,833.4R ,693.3 Wheat R Corn R Barley Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

62 Combined Global Crop Yield: Back to Trend Following last Year s Record high MT/HA 4 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3 2,8 2,6 2,4 2, Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

63 World Corn, Wheat, Soybean Stocks Potential New Record Highs in 2015! MMTs Soybeans Wheat Corn E Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

64 Other than China, world feed prices to fall to lowest leel since 09 Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

65 A New Range for US Corn? Nominal Corn Prices, ) Price Ag: 2013/14 = $ /15 = $ Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered. 65

66 It All Comes Down To Weather and Yield Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

67 World Grain Conclusions US/EU/China Bio Fuel industries are mature. This means that we are back to world grain demand expanding at a pace of % to meet rising caloric intake. Markets are back to the pre ethanol era back in Price skews shift lower with time for corn, egoils and wheat? Ukraine/Russia Crisis has added new supply concern both on export and production of grains. The crisis enticed new fund buying. How does it unwind into Summer? Logistics are much better for Brazilian soybean/corn exports this year. The Western World needs to inest in improed logistics. China economic outlook is turning more tepid with a case of supply indigestion ia soybeans and feedstuffs. Bird Flu/Low pork prices. Longer term, what does fracking mean for world bio fuel demand. The Bio fuel industry is mature A lasting bull market requires supply dislocation ia aderse weather. As the new Northern Hemisphere growing season starts, prices will retreat. A supply bearish trend Copyright into ? 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered.

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved.

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved. Simply Put, Just too Much! Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.7% in 2014 (s. 2.9% in 2013) drien primarily by gains in liestock/dairy prices. Total 2014 world meat production down.8%.

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