Stocks and Bonds Track Aging Population:
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1 Stocks and Bonds Track Aging Population: % Correlation: 93% Stocks and Bonds as a Percentage of Household Liquid Financial Assets (left scale) Population 35 Years and Over as a Percentage of Total Working Age Population (right scale) % % % Source: UN World Population Database, Federal Reserve, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 1
2 Smoothed Growth in Nominal GDP and the Labor Force (annual rate of change from same quarter 10-years ago) 12.00% 3.00% % Correlation: 93% 2.50% 2.00% 6.00% 1.50% 4.00% 1.00% GDP (left scale) Labor Force (right scale) 2.00% 0.50% Sources: BEA, BLS, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 2
3 18.00% Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Nominal GDP 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% Correlation: 89% % 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% GDP Yield Sources: BEA, Federal Reserve, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 3
4 Current Dollar GDP year-ago changes (bars) & smoothed 10-year change (line) % % -5.00% Sources: BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 4
5 12.00% Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP (annual rate of change same quarter 10-years ago) % 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% Sources: BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 5
6 3 Population Growth Rates (Medium Variant Over Preceding 5-Year Period) More Developed World Less Developed Source: UN World Poulation Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 6
7 3.50% Declining Working Age Population Growth 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% World Less Developed Source: UN World Poulation Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 7
8 Percent of Country Income for Top 20% of Population (latest available year) Latin America Average United States Asia Average Europe Average Source: World Bank, - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 8
9 Public Spending on Education in Asian Basin (% of GDP) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 9
10 Public Spending on Education in Latin America (% of GDP, selected countries) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 10
11 Public Spending on Education in Europe (% of GDP) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 11
12 Public Spending on Education in Eastern Europe (% of GDP) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 12
13 8 Immigration/GDP Growth 25.00% % % % % Immigration Growth (Left Scale) GDP Growth (Right Scale) Source: BEA, Department of Homeland Security, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 13
14 More Developed Countries 25.00% % % -5.00% %
15 United States
16 Western Europe 25.00% % % -5.00%
17 France
18 United Kingdom % % % -5.00% %
19 Germany
20 Italy 25.00% % % -5.00% % %
21 Japan
22 China
23 Russia
24 India
25 Latin America
26 Mexico
27 Brazil
28 Venezuela
29 Saudi Arabia
30 Pakistan
31 Egypt
32 Afghanistan % % % % %
33 Iran
34 Iraq
35 Turkey
36 E.U & Candidates Aged Dependency Ratio (population 65+ as a percent of 15-64) EU EU + Candidates EU + Candidates ex Turkey EU + Cand + Potential Cand Turkey Source: US Census Bureau - International Database, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 36
37 Fertility Rate: Germany vs. Japan Germany Japan Replacement Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 37
38 Female Labor Force Participation Japan United States Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 38
39 Number of US Families with One Earner (thousands) 26,500 25,500 24,500 23,500 22,500 21, : +1.81% per Year : +1.83% per Year 20,500 19,500 18,500 17, Source: US Census Bureau, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 39
40 Number of US Families with Two or More Earners (thousands) 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32, : % per Year : -0.29% per Year 30,000 28, Source: US Census Bureau, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 40
41 US Women in the Labor Force and Smoothed GDP 72.00% 12.00% % % Correlation: -94% 8.00% 64.00% 62.00% 6.00% % 58.00% 56.00% Percentage of Women in the Labor Force (Left Scale) Smoothed GDP Growth (Right Scale) 2.00% 54.00% Source: US Census Bureau, BEA, Mitenko & Toscano; not to be copied without the authors' permission 41
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