The Importance of Cattle to Missouri 2013 Breimyer Seminar

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1 The Importance of Cattle to Missouri 2013 Breimyer Seminar Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences July 17,

2 Will I Be One of The Best Closers Ever With Today s Presentation? Cattle remain a critical component of Missouri agriculture but big changes are coming!

3 Or Just Wild And Never Find The Strike Zone? Change can often be difficult and ignored as a result

4 Million Head Warmup Pitch. Missouri Cattle Inventory Declining

5 $ per cwt. Pitch 1. Record Missouri Cattle Prices Have Not Given Us Record Returns Missouri Cattle Prices

6 Pitch 2. Missouri Commodity Competition Is Growing, Cattle Is Losing 35% Missouri Cattle Receipts as a Percent of Total Receipts 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

7 2013 Beef Cow Inventory as a Percent of 1973 Atchison Nodaway Worth Harrison Mercer Putnam Schuyler Scotland Clark Holt Gentry Grundy Sullivan Adair Knox Lewis Andrew DeKalb Daviess Livingston Linn Macon Shelby Marion > 125% % % 50-75% < 50% Buchanan Platte Clinton Clay Jackson Cass Bates V ernon Barton Jasper Caldwell Ray Cedar Lafayette Henry St. Clair Dade Lawrence Carroll Johnson Polk Pettis Benton Hickory Greene Saline Chariton Cooper Morgan Camden Howard Moniteau Dallas Laclede Webster Randolph Miller Wright Boone Cole Pulaski Monroe Audrain Callaway Maries T exas Osage Phelps Ralls Montgomery Gasconade Dent Pike W arren Franklin Crawford Shannon Lincoln St. Charles W ashington Reynolds Iron Jefferson St. Louis St. Francois Madison W ayne Ste. Genevieve Bollinger Perry Cape Girardeau Scott No 2013 data Newton McDonald Barry Stone Christian T aney Douglas Ozark Howell Oregon Carter Ripley Butler Stoddard New Madrid Dunklin Mississippi Pemiscot

8 2012 Corn + Soybean Planted Area as a Percent of 1973 Atchison Nodaway Worth Harrison Mercer Putnam Schuyler Scotland Clark Holt Gentry Grundy Sullivan Adair Knox Lewis Andrew DeKalb Daviess Livingston Linn Macon Shelby Marion < 100% % % % > 145% No 2012 data Buchanan Platte Clinton Clay Jackson Cass Bates V ernon Barton Jasper Newton McDonald Caldwell Ray Cedar Lafayette Henry St. Clair Dade Lawrence Barry Carroll Johnson Polk Stone Pettis Benton Hickory Greene Saline Christian Chariton Cooper Morgan Camden Howard Moniteau Dallas Laclede T aney Webster Randolph Miller Wright Douglas Ozark Boone Cole Pulaski Monroe Audrain Callaway Maries T exas Osage Phelps Howell Ralls Montgomery Gasconade Dent Pike W arren Franklin Crawford Shannon Oregon Lincoln St. Charles W ashington Reynolds Iron Carter Ripley Jefferson St. Louis St. Francois Madison W ayne Butler Ste. Genevieve Bollinger Perry Stoddard Cape Girardeau Scott New Madrid Dunklin Mississippi Pemiscot

9 We Are Losing Pasture! Polk County

10 Pitch 3. Weather Has Dictated Beef Cow Movements The Past Few Years

11 Annual Change in Beef Cow Inventory,

12

13 Annual Change in Beef Cow Inventory,

14 Percent Pitch 4. Strong Demand Will Cure Many Industry Issues 50 Missouri Livestock Cash Receipts Cattle and calves Hogs Dairy Poultry

15 Billion Dollars Repeat Pitch 4. Missouri Cash Receipts Soybeans Corn Cattle and calves

16 Million Head A Beef Demand Scenario: U.S. Cattle and Calves Baseline Demand Growth

17 Billion Dollars Pitch 5. Markets Will Adjust Long Term Missouri Farm Income Measures Crop receipts - selected expenses Livestock receipts - selected expenses

18 Pitch 6. Missouri Cattle Producers Should Evaluate New Technology Many new technologies are emerging! FTAI Genomics Sexed semen New forages EVALUATE ALL OPTIONS They must be profitable for YOUR operation Proper technology use can reduce risk Keep consumers aware

19 Percent of Inventory Are These Technologies Scale Neutral? head Beef Cow Operation Size, head head Missouri U.S.

20 This Picture Can t Continue Long-Term $ Per Head AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 05/16/13

21 MU Thompson Research Center A focus on better genetics Higher accuracy AI studs used Research on FTAI protocols Steers have been fed at Irsik and Doll Feedyard Data on profitability Multiple years What do you see in these cows?

22 Feedyard Returns by Thompson Research Center Cow 1,400 1,200 1,

23 Index; 1 = average Does Quality Affect Profitability? Select Choice Prime

24 Index; 1 = average How About Sire? A B C D E

25 The Missouri Cattle Business Is Changing! Missouri is well-positioned to grow in importance in the U.S. cow-calf sector However, other states are working hard on their herds as well We can t keep doing things the same way we have the past couple of years Must target consumer demand Must increase productivity even faster Tools exist I hope when the 2023 Breimyer Seminar happens we have 2+ million head of beef cows and not <1.5 million

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