Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals
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1 ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) craig.wright@rbc.com
2 Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) Source: Wall Street Journal, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 2
3 Central bank policy rates %, eop Canada U.S. UK Eurozone Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of England, European Central Bank, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 3
4 Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q Real GDP: China % change, year-over-year Forecast Source: CNBS, Haver Analytics, IMF, RBC Economics Research Forecasts ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 4
5 Advanced versus emerging economies GDP growth % change, year-over-year Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing World Annual Growth Rates f f Forecast Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research Forecasts ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 5
6 Oil prices: WTI and WCS $US/bbl Western Canadian Select (WCS) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Forecast Source: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 6
7 U.S. real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change 10 Forecast: Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 7
8 Private sector employment growth: U.S. Change from previous month (Thous.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 8
9 Interest rates: U.S. % Year Bond Yield Forecast Fed Funds Rate Source: Federal Reserve, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 9
10 Real Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$ Index: 1990= Source: Federal Reserve Board, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 10
11 Canadian dollar and commodity prices US$/C$ 1.10 NSA, Jan-1972= Canadian Dollar (LHS) Commodity Prices (RHS) Source: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 11
12 Canadian real GDP growth composition forecast Percentage points Consumer spending Government spending Residential investment Non-res. investment Net external trade Inventories Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 12
13 Canadian exports by sector Index: 2007 Q2 = Non-energy commodities (29% of total exports) Non-commodities (51% of total exports) Energy commodities (20% of total exports) Foreign activity measure Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 13
14 Non-financial corporate liquidity Cash & deposits as a % of GDP 35 Canada U.S. UK Source: Statistics Canada, ONS, FRB, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 14
15 Labour market: Canada SA, millions Employment (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS) % Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 15
16 Household debt-to-income and debt service ratio: Canada (US Comparable) Credit market debt as a % of PDI Interest payments as a % of PDI Debt-to-income (LHS) Debt service ratio (RHS) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 16
17 Federal government budgetary balance Billions of dollars Federal budget projection Source: Department of Finance, RBC Economics Research Forecasts ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 17
18 Canada's real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate 8 Forecast: Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 18
19 Interest rates: Canada % year Bond Yield Forecast BOC Overnight Rate Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 19
20 Provincial real GDP growth Annual % change, ranked by 2015 growth B.C. ONT. MAN. P.E.I CANADA QUE. N.B. N.S. SASK. ALTA. N.& L Sources: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 20
21 British Columbia: Exports Year-over-year % change Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 21
22 British Columbia: Employment annual % change 4 Forecast: Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 22
23 Unemployment rate: British Columbia and Canada %, SA 9 8 Canada Forecast British Columbia Canada British Columbia Annual Rate f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 23
24 British Columbia: Net Migration Thousands of persons Net Interprovincial Net International ** No data avaible for Net International migration prior to 1992 Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 24
25 Home resales by province % change Canada BC AB SK MB ON QC AC Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 25
26 Home price by province % change Canada BC AB SK MB ON QC AC Source: Royal LePage, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 26
27 MLS HPI by major market YoY % change, composite price, March Aggregate Vancouver Lower Mainland Fraser Valley Toronto Victoria Moncton Vancouver Island Montreal Ottawa Regina Saskatoon Calgary Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 27
28 RBC Housing Affordability Measures - aggregate Ownership costs as % of household income Vancouver 60 Toronto 40 Canada Source:Brookfield RPS, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 28
29 Sales-to-new listings ratio Monthly, S.A., Vancouver Seller's market Balanced market 0.2 Buyer's market Source: RBC Economics Research, Canadian Real Estate Association ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 29
30 Months of inventory Monthly, S.A., British Columbia Long-term average Source: RBC Economics Research, Canadian Real Estate Association ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 30
31 British Columbia housing starts SAAR, Thousands of units Forecasted values: Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 31
32 Retail sales: British Columbia year-over-year % change 20 Forecast Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 32
33 British Columbia's budget balance 5 Billion $ BC government projection /03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Source: British Columbia Ministry of Finance, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 33
34 Net debt-to-gdp ratio - FY14/15 % Nfld. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C Numbers are based on reports from individual governments and, due to accounting and /or reporting differences, are not strictly comparable. Source: Provincial governments, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 34
35 Real GDP : British Columbia % change, year-over-year 8 6 Forecast Canada B.C. Annual Rate f f f * Canada 2015 GDP is actual Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 35
36 Disclaimer The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 36
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