Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets

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1 Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Rocky Ford, Colorado February,

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3 Outline Commodity Price Outlook Weather Corn Wheat Hay Cattle Macro & General Economic Conditions What s happened, why, & what likely next? 3

4 A Long Term Perspective Summary Huge increase in demand for corn. Weather related production short falls (i.e., below trend yields) attempting to satisfy this demand. Strong & changing, mainly through growth, world economies. For long enough things looked different (i.e., there was bad long term forecasting). The rising tide for corn floated the boats for all crop commodities & swamped the boats for protein commodities. 4

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6 95/75 = So foreign buyers of U.S. commodities face a 26⅔% increase in prices before even they get a chance to buy the commodities. It s not as bad as in the early-2000 s or the entire 1980s. But it s worse than the Great Recession and Future interest rates? Up? Fiscal policy is talking more spending and tax cuts. (Interest rates up.) The US has the highest r-e-a-l rates on the planet. This will attract foreign currency. (Dollar up.) 6

7 Summary Plentiful supplies of almost all crop & many livestock commodities. No clear source of strong demand growth. Strong dollar & increasing U.S. interest rates. It s not the 1980 s missing the inflation & debt but there are similarities. Weaker prices & margins for crop production. What are reasonable expectations for future commodity prices? And actions to take? 7

8 GL_GR111 Greeley, CO Wed Feb 01, 2017 USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News CO/NE/WY Elevator Afternoon Grain Bids Cash grain bids to farmers delivered to country elevators for Corn, Wheat and Soybeans per bushel; and Sorghum, Millet, and Sunflowers per cwt. as of 3:00 pm. February 1, US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Ordinary Protein: 11 higher. Northcentral Colorado range Greeley 3.23 Bennett/Roggen/Byers 3.21 Northeast Colorado range Fleming/Haxtun/Holyoke/Amherst/ Julesburg/Paoli/Peetz Yuma/Wray/Brush/Akron/Otis/Anton Eastcentral Colorado range Cheyenne Wells 3.26 Limon/Seibert/Burlington/Genoa/Hugo/Arriba/ Flagler/Bethune/Stratton Southeast Colorado range Lamar/Holly/Vilas/Campo/Wiley/Springfield Southwest NE and Southeast WY range Venango/Chappell/Big Springs/Brule Kimball/Pine Bluffs/Sidney/Brownson/Potter US 2 Yellow Corn: mostly 8 higher. Northcentral Colorado range Greeley/Eaton Roggen/Byers 3.43 Northeast Colorado range Fleming/Haxtun/Holyoke/Amherst/ Julesburg/Paoli/Peetz Yuma/Wray/Brush/Otis/Anton Eastcentral Colorado range Cheyenne Wells 3.18 Limon/Seibert/Burlington/Genoa/Hugo/Arriba/ Flagler/Bethune/Stratton 2.98 Southeast Colorado range Lamar/Holly/Vilas/Campo/Wiley/Springfield Southwest NE and Southeast WY range Venango/Chappell/Big Springs/Brule/ Kimball/Pine Bluffs/Sidney/Potter But you don t sell in the futures market so Colorado wheat is trading for $3.00-$3.25/bu. & corn is trading for $3.20-$3.60/bu. White Millet Colorado/SW NE/SE WY range mostly 5.00 Sunflowers Colorado/SW NE/SE WY range Source: USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Service, Greeley, CO Tammy Judson, Market Reporting Assistant (970) Hour Market Report (970) Greeley.LPGMN@ams.usda.gov GL_LS795 Greeley, CO Fri Jan 27, 2017 USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Auction Feeder Cattle Summary Receipts: 8952 Last Week: 9675 Last Year: 5094 Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 600 pounds were 4.00 to higher on a moderate test. Feeder steers over 600 pounds were mostly 2.00 to 6.00 higher on a good test. Feeder heifers under 600 pounds were 2.00 to sharply higher on a good test. Feeder heifers over 600 pounds were mostly 1.00 to 6.00 higher on a moderate test. Trade activity and buyer demand were good. The feeder supply consisted of approximately 60 percent steers and 40 percent heifers. Feeder cattle over 600 pounds made up approximately 51 percent of the supply. Combined weighted average report for 3 Colorado auctions this week included: La Junta Livestock Commission, Winter Livestock, and Livestock Exchange. Feeder Steers: Medium and Large lbs ; lbs , thin fleshed ; lbs ; lbs ; 451 lbs thin fleshed; lbs , fancy ; lbs ; lbs , calves ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs fancy; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; 985 lbs ; 1032 lbs ; 1091 lbs Medium and Large lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; 769 lbs ; 838 lbs ; 899 lbs Feeder Heifers: Medium and Large lbs ; 314 lbs ; lbs , fancy ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs , fancy ; lbs , fancy ; lbs ; lbs calves; lbs ; lbs ; lbs , calves ; 840 lbs ; 813 lbs fancy; 928 lbs ; 1048 lbs Medium and Large lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; lbs ; 649 lbs ; lbs ; lbs Source: USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Service, Greeley, CO Lindsay Brunet, Market Reporter Greeley.LPGMN@ams.usda.gov A 5-6 cwt steer calf is $148-$165/cwt. 8

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11 Weekly Corn Contract $8.00 $5.00 The trading range for corn is $3.00-$4.50/bu. Except 11

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13 NOV 2017 Soybean Contract 13

14 DEC 2017 Corn Contract 14

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18 DEC 2016 Corn Contract Forecast $ /bu 18

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20 Corn Price Forecast: Plant 90 million acres then $4.00 Plant 92 million acres then $3.25 Plant 88 million acres then $4.75 DEC 2015 Corn Contract Blue is the right trading range & green can happen again but not for long 20

21 DEC 2017 Corn Contract Corn Outlook Market price is very much aligned with where fundamentals say it should be. Acres? Yields? Soybeans? Cash flow & debt? Demand? Trade? Storage? Price outlook $3.50 $3.85/bu. And we ve had the four big crops. $3.75 $4.00/bu. But could be $4.35 or $

22 Weekly KC Wheat Contract 22

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25 Wheat Price Forecast: Futures $4.50-$5.00/bu. & any High Plains cash market will be a lot less than that until 16/17 crop is cleaned up. 25

26 JUL 2017 KC Wheat Contract 26

27 JUL 2017 Wheat Contract JUL 2016 KC Wheat Contract 27

28 JUL 2015 KC Wheat Contract Wheat Outlook World production & usage: large stocks. U.S. production & use: large stocks. Acres this year? Graze out? World weather? Soft trade & strong dollar. Forecasts: JUL $4.75 with range $ /bu. Aligned with fundamentals & cash much lower. 28

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30 Mil. Tons 30 US ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-21 10/12/16 30

31 PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 5% Data Source: USDA-NASS 1/12/2016 PERCENT CHANGE NEW SEEDLINGS ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 0.5% Data Source: USDA-NASS 1/12/

32 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Feb 2, 2017 USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to the last week reported, prices were steady to higher with activity light and demand high in all classes. Producers are reporting an increase in interest and demand for hay in relation to the severity of the winter thus far. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Good DEL, Fair DEL. Small Squares: Supreme (10.00 per bale), small lot.. Grass Small Squares: Premium (7.00 per bale) small lot. Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Premium/Good Small Squares: Supreme Grass Small Squares: Premium (6.50 per bale), retail. San Luis Valley Area Alfalfa Large Squares: Premium ; Good ; Fair Southwest Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Premium , outside stored. Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas Grass Large Squares: Premium Forage Outlook Plentiful except for high quality. Good quality hay: Alfalfa $150 $180/T. Grass $85 $100/T. Low quality hay: <$65 $95/T. Small bales 32

33 USDA Quarterly Cattle Price Forecasts Date Fed Cattle 7 800# Feeder 5 600# Calf 2016: VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ Weekly Live Cattle Contract This market is looking for a bottom trading range $90-120/cwt. $170 33

34 Monthly Live Cattle Contract Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract This market will drift lower trading range $ /cwt. $240 34

35 Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market has/will trend down: Domestic demand was strong & is weakening. International demand & trade are weak. Big expansion in competing meats. Feeder cattle & calf prices will weaken for the next several years if: Herd building continues. Red meat & poultry production expand. 35

36 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-10 12/23/16 36

37 Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-M-11 12/23/16 Mil. Head 2.5 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08 12/23/16 37

38 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2010/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 12/23/16 JUN 2017 Live Cattle Contract 38

39 MAR 2017 Feeder Cattle Contract Thou. Head SATURDAY CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-03 12/30/16 39

40 Thou. Head STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-17 12/30/16 Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-13 12/30/16 40

41 Pounds LIVE WEIGHT STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-26 12/30/16 Thou. Head 90 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-34 12/30/16 41

42 Mil. Pounds 2300 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: USDA NASS M-S-02 11/23/16 Cents Per Pound 650 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 12/15/16 42

43 Cents Per Pound RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS Pork Composite Broiler All Fresh Beef $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 12/19/16 43

44 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 12/19/16 $ Per Cwt. 130 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-35 12/19/16 44

45 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 45

46 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Second Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 46

47 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Cattle & Beef Going Forward? Weak domestic demand. Strong dollar & weak trade. Herd expansion, increased future production, & normal feeding costs. Pressured by pork & poultry prices. 47

48 1000 MT 6 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 7/9/16 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS 12/30/ MT 21 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /5/13 7/6/13 1/4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 7/9/16 Data Source: USDA FAS 12/30/16 48

49 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-15 01/09/17 Mil. Pounds 270 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-16 01/09/17 49

50 Mil. Pounds 200 US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-31 01/09/17 Mil. Pounds 70 US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-37 01/09/17 50

51 Bil. $ 4 US BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Tallow, Grease & Var Meat Total Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-72 02/22/16 Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-28 12/28/16 51

52 Pounds US RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Beef Pork Total Chicken Turkey Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-C-01 01/12/17 Nominal Dollars 800 US EXPENDITURES FOR MEAT & POULTRY Per Capita, By Type of Meat, Annual Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-C-16A 01/12/17 52

53 Mil. Head 46 JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-02A 02/01/17 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-38 02/01/17 53

54 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS, Analysis by LMIC C-N-48 02/01/17 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC C-P-66 12/29/16 54

55 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC 12/29/16 Cattle Outlook Expansion this year & next? Reasonable feed costs. Worst case scenario softening demand & strong competing meat production hard fall last two years & stop? Best case scenario need to see increased trade. 55

56 Input Market Outlook Summary Soft everything. Even land valuations Common non ag risks moderating except Softening fuel costs with no volatility Fertilizer Chemicals Supply industries remain operating undercapacity & unwilling to take risk. We haven t had this much cheap energy in a while. Let s see what happens. $150 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $35 $40-$60 56

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60 Percent Change QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 12/20/16 60

61 Bil. Dollars TOTAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly Current Dollars 2009 Dollars Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 12/20/ Dollars Calculated Dollars PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly Current Dollar 2009 Dollar Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2009 Dollars Calculated 12/20/16 61

62 Percent 11.0 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 12/20/16 Index 120 Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan 10/14/16 62

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66 Weekly S&P500 Contract Daily S&P500 Contract 66

67 Summary & Bottom Line Corn acres & this year s weather. Prices pulled by soybeans. Forage firm through winter & weaker next summer. Wheat crop conditions similar to last year acres & yields? worldwide & dollar? Cattle more numbers, big weights, weak demand, lower prices trade? 67

68 Summary & Recommendations Many markets trending downwards. Little fundamental strength. Aggressive selling of any rallies. Watch resistance planes & sell before reached. Hand to mouth purchases. Watch support planes & expect to be pressured. Interest rates & dollar Contact and Link Information 68

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