Charts on the NZ Economy 2014
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1 Charts on the NZ Economy 214 These charts were prepared by Susanna McLaren. They were updated and adapted from earlier versions used by Sir Roderick Deane in a number of speeches. Susanna benefitted from a Victoria University of Wellington Summer Scholarship during the summer of The project was supervised by Associate Professors Jane Bryson and Urs Daellenbach, of the VUW School of Management, and Sir Roderick Deane. The charts were completed in February 215.
2 NZ GDP per capita 6 percentage change (%) Annual percentage change (bars) Three year moving average (line) Forecast Source: Statistics NZ; Treasury
3 Rank NZ GDP PER CAPITA RANK Source: OECD
4 1 OECD PER CAPITA RANK GDP per capita ($US, current prices) Luxembourg Norway Switzerland United States Australia Austria Ireland Netherlands Sweden Denmark Germany Canada Belgium Finland Iceland OECD France United Kingdom Japan Italy New Zealand Spain Korea Israel Slovenia Czech Republic Slovak Republic Portugal Greece Estonia Poland Hungary Chile Mexico China Source: OECD Country
5 8,. NZ vs AUSTRALIA GDP PER CAPITA 7,. Australia GSP per capita ($US, current prices) 6,. 5,. 4,. 3,. 2,. New Zealand 1,.. Source: IMF
6 14 Growth rate needed to catch up to Australia GDP per capita (USD) Australia's average growth has been approximately 6.1 since 198. If this rate continues then New Zealand growth will need to be approximately 1.2% in order to catch up to Australia Source: IMF
7 14 12 Consumer Price Index Forecast 1 8 CPI Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 199Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1 26Q1 27Q1 28Q1 29Q1 21Q1 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 215Q1 (f) 216Q1 (f) 217Q1 (f) Source: Statistics NZ; ANZ
8 1 CPI Inflation Quarterly Percentage Change 8 6 Quarterly % change 4 2 Forecast Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 199Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1 26Q1 27Q1 28Q1 29Q1 21Q1 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 215Q1 (f) 216Q1 (f) 217Q1 (f) Source: Statistics NZ; ANZ
9 12. Unemployment rate 1. Umeployment rate (%) Forecast (f) 216 (f) Source: RBNZ; ANZ
10 Jan 86 Jan 87 Jan 88 Jan 89 Jan 9 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Index World Price Index Source: ANZ
11 Terms of Trade 15 Forecast Index Source: Statistics NZ; ANZ
12 14 Traded vs. Non-Traded goods Non- Traded goods 12 Index (Base year =26) Traded goods 4 2 Source: Statistics NZ
13 Multi-factor Productivity Growth Reform Retreat Index Pre-reform Period Post-reform Period Source: Statistics NZ
14 6 Growth rate of Multi-Factor Productivity 5 4 % change Annual percentage change (bars) Three year moving average (line) Source: Statistics NZ
15 6 Phases of multi-factor productivity growth % change Source: Statistics NZ
16 Average multifactor productivity growth (%) Labour and multifactor productivity by Industry Transport, Postal and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1 Financial and Insurance Services.5 Wholesale Trade Service industries Information and communication technology Manufacturing intensive industries Electricity, Gas, Water and Retail Trade Construction Waste Services Mining Accommodation and Food Services Primary industries Information Media and Telecommunication Source: Statistics NZ -2 Average labour productivity growth (%)
17 Total Investment (as percentage of GDP) 3 25 Forecast 2 Investment (% of GDP) Source: IMF
18 25 NZ Investment Growth Annual percentage change (bars) Three year moving average (line) % change Source: OECD
19 Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) annual growth GFCF annual growth (%) Australia New Zealand Source: OECD
20 7, 6, Net Capital Stock Annual percentage change (RHS) , 3 Value ($m) 4, 3, Annual Value (LHS) % change 2, 1 1,.5 Source: Statistics NZ
21 Source: Statistics NZ , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, % change Value ($m) Capital Investment Annual Value (LHS) Annual percentage change (RHS)
22 1. Economic Freedom Index Index Source: Frazer Institute
23 Economic Freedom Index Heritage Foundation Index 8 79 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index (LHS) Frazer Institute Economic Freedom Index (RHS) Frazer Institute Index Source: Frazer Institute; The Heritage Foundation
24 16, 214 Top 1 NZ export commodities 14, 12, 1, NZ$ Millions 8, 6, 4, 2, Milk powder, butter, and cheese Meat and edible offal Logs, wood, and wood articles Crude oil Machinery Beverages Fruits and nuts Commodity Fish Aluminoids, starches and glues Electrical machinery and equipment Cereal preparations Source: NZ Trade and Enterprise
25 NZ Export Value Annual percentage change (RHS) Annual Value (LHS) 4 3 Value ($m) % change Source: Statistics NZ
26 Principal Export Values 18,, 16,, 14,, Milk Powder, Butter and Cheese Value ($NZ Thousands) 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, Total Meat and Edible Offal 4,, Logs, Wood and Wood Articles 2,, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances Source: Statistics NZ
27 Current account balance Current Account Balance ($NZ Millions) Source: Statistics NZ; Treasury Forecast
28 15 Current account balances of OECD nations Current Account Balance (% GDP) 5-5 Turkey United Kingdom Chile New Zealand Australia United States Mexico Belgium Poland Czech Republic France Estonia Finland Portugal Japan Spain Italy Greece Slovak Republic Israel Austria Hungary Iceland Korea Luxembourg Slovenia Ireland Sweden Denmark Germany Netherlands Norway Switzerland -1 Source: OECD Country
29 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (% GDP) Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States Source: OECD
30 3, NZ Overseas Debt , Total debt as % of GDP (RHS) , 1. $NZ MIllion 15, 8. % of GDP 1, Total debt value (LHS) , 2. Source: RBNZ Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Mar Jun. 2 Dec. 2 Jun. 21 Dec. 21 Jun. 22 Dec. 22 Jun. 23 Dec. 23 Jun. 24 Dec. 24 Jun. 25 Dec. 25 Jun. 26 Dec. 26 Jun. 27 Dec. 27 Jun. 28 Dec. 28 Jun. 29 Dec. 29 Jun. 21 Dec. 21 Jun. 211 Dec. 211 Jun. 212 Dec. 212.
31 Net External Liability Annual % change (RHS) 15. % of GDP Net External Liability % of GDP (LHS) annual % change Source: RBNZ
32 16. International debt issues to GDP (%) % of GDP Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States Source: The World Bank
33 45 Gross external debt positions External debt (% of GDP) Direct Investment Intercompany Other sectors Banks Monetary authorities General Government 5 Source: Treasury Country
34 .2 Net International Investment Position -.2 Mar-1 Aug-1 Jan-2 Jun-2 Nov-2 Apr-3 Sep-3 Feb-4 Jul-4 Dec-4 May-5 Oct-5 Mar-6 Aug-6 Jan-7 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul % of GDP Australia Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom Source: RBNZ
35 External sector: Current account balance projections % of GDP -4-5 Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States Source: The World Bank
36 9 Total Crown Operating Balance 8.% Forecast 6.% 4 4.% Total crown operating balance (LHS) 2.% -1 $NZ Million -6 As % of GDP (RHS).% -2.% % of GDP -4.% % % Source: Treasury
37 1. General Government Financial balance 5. % of nominal GDP New Zealand Australia United Kingdom United States Total OECD Source: OECD
38 1 Gross Central Government Debt Gross Central government debt as % of GDP(RHS) Forecast Gross debt ($NZ billions) Gross Governmen t debt ($b) (LHS) Gross debt (% of GDP) Source: IMF
39 16 Total Government Debt % of GDP Australia Greece Ireland Italy New Zealand Portugal Spain 4 2 Source: OECD
40 6 Government total expenditure 5 expenditure (% of GDP) Forecast 1 Source: IMF
41 Core Crown Expenses Social security and welfare, GSF Millions ($) Health Education Core Government Services 1 Defence Transport and communications Source: Treasury
42 Government expenditure 214 Social security and welfare and superannuation Health Education Core Government Services Defence Transport and communications Other Expenses Source: Treasury
43 Local Authority Expenditure and Debt Debt (RHS) Expenditure ($millions) 6 4 Expenditure (LHS) Term debt ($millions) Source: Statistics NZ
44 4 Hours worked per week Hours Source: Statistics NZ
45 14, General Government savings 12, 1, 8, 6, saving ($m) 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, Source: RBNZ
46 3. Gross national savings 25. % of nominal GDP Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States 5.. Source: OECD
47 4, Household saving 8. 3, 2, 1, Household saving value (LHS) savings ($m) -1, -2, -3, -4, Household saving rate (RHS) Houshold saving rate (%) , -6, , Source: RBNZ -1.
48 15. Household saving rates 1. Net saving rate (%) Australia New Zealand United States Source: OECD
49 House prices Annual percentage change (RHS) House Prices (LHS) Index % change Source: RBNZ
50 7 Annual change in Private Consumption % change Source: RBNZ
51 8 6 General Government Consumption Annual percentage change % change year moving average Source: RBNZ
52 Gross Disposable Income per Capita (NZD) Western Australia $55511 Northern Territory $5894 South Australia $44768 Queensland $45769 Tasmania $4411 New South Wales $48657 Victoria $42916 Australian Capital Territory $88418 New Zealand $35225 Source: Statistics NZ; Australian Bureau of Statistics
53 Migration to Australia 6, 5, 4, units 3, 2, 1, Source: Statistics NZ
54 5, New Zealand Net Migration 4, 3, 2, People 1, -1, Australia China India UK USA TOTAL -2, -3, -4, -5, Source: Statistics NZ
55 .95 Human Development Index Index Source: United Nations Country
56 9 Social Progress Index Index Source: Social Progress Imperative Country
57 Health Expenditure expenditure (% of GDP) Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States Singapore Source: OECD: The World Bank
58 1% Private vs. Public Health Expenditure 9% 8% 7% % of expenditue 6% 5% 4% 3% Private expenditure Public expenditure 2% 1% % Source: Ministry of Health
59 3 Welfare Expenditure 25 expenditure (% of GDP) Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States OECD - Total Source: OECD
60 3 Public expenditure on disability and sickness benefits 2.5 expenditure (% of GDP) Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States OECD Source: OECD
61 Income poverty (children under 18yrs) 35 3 rate (after housing costs, moving line 6%) Source: Ministry of Social Development
62 Income equality ratio of equality (= complete equality) Source: OECD
63 Public Sector employees 4, 35, 3, number of employees 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: Statistics NZ
64 8, Core Public Servants 7, 6, number of employees 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: State Service Commission
65 4 Public vs. Private sector hourly earnings 35 Public Sector 3 Average hourly wage Private Sector Source: Statistics NZ
66 Growth in hourly earnings Private Sector Public Sector 5 % change Source: Statistics NZ
67 2, Numbers receiving Financial assistance 18, 16, 14, Unemployment benefit number of people 12, 1, 8, Sickness benefit 6, 4, 2, Source: Ministry of Social Development
68 18, Benefit Trends 16, 14, 12, number of people 1, 8, Unemployment benefit 6, 4, Sickness benefit 2, Source: Ministry of Social Development
69 12 Benefit growth rates 1 Unemployment benefit 8 6 % change 4 2 Sickness benefit Source: Ministry of Social Development
70 12, Main Benefits of Working-age Clients 1, 8, people 6, 4, Unemployment Benefits Domestic Purposes Benefits Sickness Benefits Invalid s Benefit Other main benefits 2, Source: Ministry of Social Development
71 NZ Benefits 16, 14, 12, number of people 1, 8, 6, Total Jobseeker Support Total Supported Living Payment Total Sole Parent Support 4, 2, Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Source: Ministry of Social Development
72 7, People receieving Superannuation 6, 5, number of people 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: Ministry of Social Development
73 Average Tax on Personal Income 25 2 Tax rate (%) 15 1 Australia New Zealand OECD - Average Source: OECD
74 8 Average Tax on Corporate Income 7 6 Tax rate (%) Australia New Zealand OECD - Average Source: OECD
75 NZ Tax rates Highest marginal Income tax 4 Tax rate 3 Corporate Source: OECD, IRD
76 .8 Total Inland Transport Infrastructure Investment.7.6 Investment (% of GDP) Source: OECD
77 3 Gross Domestic Spending on R & D 2.5 OECD expenditure (% of DGP) New Zealand Source: OECD
78 Impacts of changes to regulations on business
79 Regulation key problem for SME s
80 16 Market capitalization of listed companies % GDP 8 6 Australia New Zealand OECD members 4 2 Source: The World Bank
81 25 Stocks traded 2 15 % of GDP 1 Australia New Zealand OECD members Source: The World Bank
82 14. Capital ratio of registered banks Total capital ratio Jun 199 Jun 1992 Jun 1994 Jun 1996 Jun 1998 Jun 2 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 21 Jun 212 Jun 214 Source: RBNZ
83 3 Stock Market Return 2 1 % change Australia New Zealand Source: The World Bank
84 Volatility of Stock Price Index Index New Zealand Australia United Kingdom United States Source: The World Bank
85 Asia Opportunities Asia Population World Population Source: World Population Statistics
86 Value of exports to China (NZ$) 2 Value (NZ $m) Source: ANZ Sector
87 1% China's Share of Total Exports 213 9% 8% 7% 6% share (%) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Milk Powder Source: ANZ Logs Sheepmeat Wool Cray Pet food Malt Extract Sector Raw hides Con dential items Casein Sawn timber Butter Wood pulp
88 14. Central Bank Assets to GDP (%) % of GDP Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States Source: The World Bank
89 Bank Private Credit to GDP (%) % of GDP New Zealand United Kingdom Australia United States 4.. Source: The World Bank
90 6, Purpose of NZ visitors 5, 4, Visitors 3, 2, Business Conventions/Conferences Education Holiday/Vacation Unspecified/Not Collected Other Visit Friends/Relatives 1, Source: Statistics NZ
91 Tourism expenditure in NZ 25, 2, 15, $NZ Millions 1, 5, Source: Statistics NZ
92 16 Annual change in Tourism Expenditure % change Source: Statistics NZ
93 4 Sum of Total Visitor Arrivals 35 3 Forecast 25 Visitors Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
94 7,, Total Dairy Cattle 6,, 5,, number of cows 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Source: Statistics NZ
95 Total dairy export value Exports ($NZ Million) Source: Ministry of Primary Industries
96 Source: Fonterra Fonterra s Global Market Share 213
97 Source: Fonterra Top Dairy Exporters 212
98 9 Dairy company payout on milk solids $/kg Source: DairyNZ
99 14 Annual Crude Oil, Condensate, Naphtha and Natural Gas Liquids Production by Field 12 Others Copper Moki Surrey Waihapa 1 TarikiAhuroa Cheal Gross PJ Rimu Kowhai Mangahewa Kupe Ngatoro1 Turangi Mckee Maari 2 Tui Pohokura Kapuni Exports Maui Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
100 Renewable Percentage of New Zealand Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type 45% 4% 35% 3% Percent 25% 2% Other Renewables Geothermal Hydro 15% 1% 5% % Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
101 3,5 NZ Film Industry Gross Revenue 3, 2,5 $NZ Million 2, 1,5 1, Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
102 Net Core Crown Debt
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