Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond

Transcription

1 Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond Houston, May 15, 2017

2 Agenda Gulf coast imports: top sourcing regions, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook. Gulf coast exports: top regional markets, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook. Conclusions 2

3 3 Gulf coast containerized trade following an upward trend Gulf import/export TEU ratio: 0.9. East coast at 1.6 while West Coast at In millions of TEU 25.0 Year-over-year % change Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Imports Exports Imports Exports

4 4 US Gulf Containerized Exports outlook 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

5 Millions of TEU 5 Gulf Coast TEU exports up in 6 of last 7 years Over the last 5 years, Gulf exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 2.2% Gulf Coast Containerized Exports,

6 6 Latin America continues to be the top market for the Gulf East Asia gained significant market share mostly at the expense of Europe % 13% 22% East Asia 9% East Asia 28% 37% LATAM Europe Others 40% 40% LATAM Europe Others

7 7 East Asia led export gains for 3 consecutive years European markets are stubbornly weak In the last 3 years, East Asia contributed most to the Gulf exports trade. Gulf exports were up only 0.9% in 2016: exports to Europe, Latin America subtracted from growth but were entirely offset by East Asian gains. European markets continue to struggle, down for 3 consecutive years Contribution to Gulf TEU Exports Growth In percentage points East Asia Europe LATAM Others

8 8 China s manufacturing recovery supported gains Paper, cotton, resins posted solid growth Fastest Growing Exports: 2016 TEU Change Filter paper - 10,000 Manufacturing production in China has been recovering since July Resins exports up 5.5% last year, with India and China as the main drivers of growth. Solid demand for US poultry in Latin America. Poultry shipments to mainland China down, but to Hong Kong up 16%. Why? Wood pulp Fabrics, incl. raw cotton Synth resins, NSPF Mixed metal scrap Synth resins & plastics Poultry

9 9 Gulf coast exports to grow again in East Asia will once again lead the gains Gulf TEU Exports Forecast Annual percent change Gulf Coast exports forecast to rise over next 2 years with Houston contributing most to growth. China s manufacturing production rose for the 10 th month in April amid reports of greater inflows of new work. Latin America & Caribbean GDP forecast to rise 1.1 and 2.2% in 2017 and 2018, respectively US dollar value forecast to continue rising, and peak in early F 2018F

10 10 US Gulf Containerized Imports Outlook 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

11 Millions of TEU 11 Gulf Coast TEU imports on the uptrend Over last 5 years, Gulf TEU imports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% Gulf Coast TEU Imports,

12 12 East Asia continues to be the top sourcing region for Gulf Since 2007, East Asia gained significant market share at Europe and LATAM s expense % 3% 27% 39% East Asia LATAM 35% 24% East Asia LATAM Europe Europe 31% Others 38% Others

13 13 East Asia led import gains for 2 successive years Contribution to Gulf TEU Imports Growth European imports down in In percentage points 6.6 Gulf TEU imports grew 6.3% in 2016, with East Asia driving the bulk of the growth. The Gulf supports three Asian services that call Houston and Mobile The Panama Canal expansion last Summer enhanced the attractiveness of Gulf Coast gateways. European imports fell on lower demand, following 6 successive years of growth East Asia LATAM Europe Others

14 14 Housing market gains boosted import demand Furniture, lumber, tiles post solid gains Fastest Growing Imports: 2016 TEU change Furniture 0 10,000 20,000 Logs & lumber Furniture imports up 30% in 2016; up for 5 consecutive years. Single-family housing starts in West South Central region up in 2016 for 5 th consecutive year. Existing home sales in West South Central region up in 2016 for 6 th consecutive year. Auto tires imports from China registered solid growth, but from Europe declined. Veneers, plywood Ceramic, mosaic tiles Auto tires Plastic prod, misc. Scrap paper

15 15 Gulf coast imports to grow again in East Asia will once again lead the gains 9.7 Gulf TEU Import Forecast Annual percent change 10.6 Gulf coast TEU imports forecast to continue expanding for the next 2 years. US real GDP forecast to rise 2.2 and 2.7% in 2017 and 2018, respectively Home sales and home construction forecast to continue expanding in West South Central region, and beyond. Import prices (exc. Oil) are forecast to stay subdued on the back of a strong USD F 2018F

16 Conclusions Gulf containerized exports forecast to expand over on the back of a recovering global manufacturing sector. Latin America continues to be the top market for Gulf exports but China s market share is quickly rising. Gulf containerized imports forecast to continue trending upward over as the regional housing market continues to improve. The expansion of the Panama Canal enhanced the attractiveness of Gulf coast gateways. 16

17 17 Thank you. JOC Senior Economist Mario O. Moreno, JOC Insights, JOC Container Shipping Forecast, JOC Port Forecast 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.