Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure Setting the scene: Infrastructure patterns in emerging markets Christian Daude and Ángel Melguizo Americas Desk OECD Development Centre Development Finance Network (DeFiNe) Annual Meeting Paris, October 2010

2 Main messages Infrastructures are key for potential growth, development and stabilization policies (e.g. G20 agenda) Growth and inequality gaps -Latin America explained by infrastructure gaps less spending, lower quality (Calderón and Servén, 2004b) Emerging economies: significant infrastructure gaps Latin America lags behind and emerging Europe Significant differences across infrastructure types (basic, transport, energy and telecommunications) and countries Fundamentals-observed levels (Balmaseda, Daude, Melguizo and Taft, 2010) Policy response Building better institutions (quality of bureaucracy, fiscal position) Improving regulation (in particular around public-private financing) 2

3 Log lines/pop Log Kws/pop Setting priorities: infrastructure levels 14 Per capita telephone lines and Income level, Kilowatts pc and Urbanization rate, Developed 8 7 Developed Log GDP pc Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Urbanization ratio Income and population matter but so do demographic (age profile), social (urbanization) and economic (sector mix) variables. 3

4 Empirical model (Balmaseda et al., 2010) Explanatory variables - Per capita income (level and squared) - Socio- demographics (urbanization, density) - Productive structure (services and industry vs. agriculture) Predicted infrastructure patterns (Km/area, KW pc, pc lines) Observed levels (Km/area, KW pc, pc lines) Degree of achievement (Observed levels/ Patterns) Predicted infrastructure patterns (for country i, in time t) can be compared to actual levels, to estimate gaps and identify priorities. 4

5 Results (observed vs. predicted): Priorities Observed / Predicted (%) 280% 240% Paved roads 160% 140% Electricity Capacity Generation 200% 120% 160% 100% 120% 80% 60% MAX-MIN 80% 40% 40% MAX-min 20% 0% 0% Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) n and Lat. Am. challenges concentrated in Transport and Energy infrastructure. In LAC, even the regional leader is below predicted levels. 5

6 Results (observed vs. predicted): Priorities Observed / Predicted (%) 450% Telephone lines 150% Access to improved water 400% 350% 300% 130% MAX-min 250% 200% MAX-min 110% 150% 100% 90% 50% 0% 70% Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) The situation in telecommunication and basic infrastructure is more balanced. Some good practices may stem from LAC. 6

7 Results (gaps and fiscal balances): Domestic financing Railways Electricity e( debtgdp X ) coef = , (robust) se = , t = Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) e( debtgdp X ) coef = , (robust) se = , t = Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Lower public debt ratios are correlated with lower infrastructure gaps Fiscal consolidation have been traditionally based on investment cuts (Calderón and Serven, 2004a, Martner and Tromben, 2005 for LAC) Public borrowing costs reflect (perceptions of) debt sustainability 7

8 Results (gaps and bureaucracy): Public administration Paved roads Electricity e( bqual X ) coef = , (robust) se = , t = e( bqual X ) coef = , (robust) se = , t = Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Source: Balmaseda et al. (2010) Better institutions (quality of bureaucracy) are correlated with lower infrastructure gaps Need to have domestic resources and management capacity Governance, control of corruption, adequate regulation 8

9 Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure Setting the scene: Infrastructure patterns in emerging markets Christian Daude and Ángel Melguizo Americas Desk OECD Development Centre Development Finance Network (DeFiNe) Annual Meeting Paris, October 2010