The History of the Future Price of Oil
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1 The History of the Future Price of Oil JJ Dooley, MA Wise and PJ Runci Joint Global Change Research Institute May 28, 2008 PNNL-SA-60763
2 Climate change is a long-term strategic problem with implications for today Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and not their annual emissions levels should be the overarching strategic goal of climate policy. This tells us that a fixed and finite amount of CO 2 can be released to the atmosphere over the course of this century. We all share a planetary greenhouse gas emissions budget. Every ton of emissions released to the atmosphere reduces the budget left for future generations. As we move forward in time and this planetary emissions budget is drawn down, the remaining allowable emissions will become more valuable. Emissions permit prices should steadily rise with time. $/tonne CO2 (2000$) Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Gigatons per Year.r $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 450 ppm Stabilization 550 ppm Stabilization 650 ppm Stabilization 750 ppm Stabilization Historical Emissions GTSP_750 GTSP_650 GTSP_550 GTSP_450 GTSP Reference Case
3 Stabilization of CO 2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy system History Future ppm History Future ppm ppm ppm EJ/year Today 380 ppm EJ/year Today 380 ppm ppm ppm Preindustrial 280 ppm Oil Natural Gas Coal Biomass Energy Non-Biomass Renewable Energy Preindustrial 280 ppm ppm ppm Oil + CCS Natural Gas + CCS Coal + CCS Nuclear Energy End-use Energy 3
4 CCS Deployment by Electric Utilities IGCC+CCS and Nuclear Are Keys to Decarbonizing Baseload Power $/MWh PC Dispatch Cost Min Dispatch 50 pctile 90 pctile Gas CC PC PC PC Gas CT Gas Steam In, conventional fossilfired power plants were the predominant means of generating competitively priced electricity. $/MWh Renewables Nuclear 2045 Nuclear IGCC CCS PC Dispatch Cost Min Dispatch 50 pctile 90 pctile New Gas CC PC MW 0.0 Renewables MW PC Gas CC Gas CT Gas Steam However, given today s and (likely) tomorrow s higher natural gas prices and the imposition of a hypothetical binding greenhouse gas control policy, While renewables are likely to grow substantially, IGCC+CCS and nuclear become -- in some regions of the U.S. -- the dominant means of generating lowcarbon baseload electricity. 4
5 Two Core Principals for Good Guide Climate Policy (Edmonds, 1999) Credible Commitment There needs to be a credible expectation that the future energy regime will be different than the past. Technology maturation cycles are significantly longer than political cycles, the Commitment must be binding and transcend multiple political cycles for non-carbon energy technologies to have a chance of achieving significant market penetration. Means of Controlling Real Costs There needs to be a credible expectation that the cost of implementing a commitment will not be too onerous. If sticking with the Commitment is too painful (costly), it will ultimately implode. 5
6 US Oil Prices $160 Average Anual Oil Prices US Dollars $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Real (US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, 2008 Nominal (US$)
7 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 U.S. Oil Prices Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
8 Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 History of Oil Price Projections and Actual Oil Price (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Resources in America's Future (RFF 1962) Steele (Feb 1973) Baughman Free Flowing Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) Baughman Restricted Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) IEW (December 1981) Low Cost Scenario:Energy in a Finite World (1981) High Cost Scenario: Energy in a Finite World (1981) Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) Low Price Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) High Price AEO 1982 AEO 1983 IEW (July 1984) AEO 1984 AEO 1985 AEO 1986 AEO 1987 IEW (January 1987) Long Range Projections: Low Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: Reference Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: High Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988) AEO1989 IEW (January 1990) AEO 1990 AEO 1991 AEO 1992 GRI 1992 AEO 1993 IEW (January 1993) AEO 1994 AEO 1995 IEW (January 1996) AEO 1996 AEO 1997 AEO 1998 AEO 1999 AEO 2000 AEO 2001 AEO 2002 AEO 2003 AEO 2004 AEO AEO 2006 Actual 8
9 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Prices and Projections Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
10 Expectations and Incentives Matter: Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo $8,000 Federal Energy R&D Investments ( ) $7,000 Millions of Real US$ $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Millions of barrels of peroleum used to generate electricy within the U.S. per year Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission) Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor ( ) Fossil Synfuels Program ( ) Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations ( ) Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Efficiency and Renewables U.S. Oil-fired Electric Generation Investments ( ) Petroleum (millions of barrels per year) Petroleum (percent of total electricity generation) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Petroleum-fired generation as a percent of all electricity generation Federal investments in energy R&D were stable or in decline and were overwhelmingly focused on nuclear power. The electric utility sector was rapidly expanding its use of (cheap) petroleum % 10
11 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Prices and Projections Made Between the Major Oil Disruptions of the 1970s (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
12 Millions of Real US$ $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Millions of barrels of peroleum used to generate electricy within the U.S. per year Federal Energy R&D Investments ( ) Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission) Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor ( ) Fossil Synfuels Program ( ) Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations ( ) Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Efficiency and Renewables U.S. Oil-fired Electric Generation Investments ( ) 0 0% Expectations and Incentives Matter: Between the Major Oil Disruptions of the 1970s Petroleum (millions of barrels per year) Petroleum (percent of total electricity generation) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Petroleum-fired generation as a percent of all electricity generation Millions of Real US$ $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Federal and private sector investments in energy grew dramatically and became a more well rounded portfolio of activities. Electric utilities quickly reversed course and rapidly decreased their use of petroleum. Major US Oil and Gas Companies Investments in Energy R&D ( ) Other/Unclassified Energy R&D Nonconventional Energy R&D Downstream Natural Gas Other Coal Coal Gasification/Liquefaction Other Petroleum Gas to Liquids Oil and Gas Recovery
13 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Prices and Projections 1980s (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
14 Millions of Real US$ $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Federal Energy R&D Investments ( ) Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission) Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor ( ) Fossil Synfuels Program ( ) Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations ( ) Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Efficiency and Renewables As time passed and the oil disruptions of the 1970s faded into memory, the less priority was accorded to investments in new energy technologies. Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 1980s U.S. Venture Capital Invested in "Industrial/Energy" Field, Millions of Constant US$ Millions of Real US$ U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Venture Capital Investments in "Industrial/Energy" Deals Venture Capital Devoted to "Industrial/Energy" Deals as a Percent of All Venture Capital % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Funding for "Industrial/Energy" Field as a Percent of All U.S. Venture Capital Funding Major US Oil and Gas Companies Investments in Energy R&D ( ) Other/Unclassified Energy R&D Nonconventional Energy R&D Downstream Natural Gas Other Coal Coal Gasification/Liquefaction Other Petroleum Gas to Liquids Oil and Gas Recovery
15 Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 1980s 2,500 North Dakota / Wyoming 3,900 miles of CO 2 pipeline built to date Miles of Large CO2 Pipelines by State and Decade of Construction 2,000 1,500 1, Louisiana / Mississippi Texas/ New Mexico / Colorado / Oklahoma 0 Pre s >60% of this was built in the 1980s >50% was built in and around West Texas in the 1980s 15
16 Active CO 2 -driven EOR Floods in the U.S. per Year U.S. Domestic Oil Production using CO 2 EOR (b/d) , , , , ,000 50,000 - Active CO2-driven EOR Projects Domestic Oil Price ( US$) CO2-driven EOR Production (b/d) Domestic Oil Price ( US$) Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 1980s $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$) Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$) Most of the existing CO 2 pipeline infrastructure was built during a period of rapidly declining oil prices. This was in part due to the fact that the federal government was sending a clear signal that it would support domestic oil production and that this support would not be short-lived: During the relatively short period , major U.S. oil companies paid over $88.5 billion in Windfall Profits Taxes to the U.S. Government. It was also due to the fact that their was a widely held belief that oil prices would begin to increase in the near future. 16
17 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Prices and Projections 1990s (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
18 Millions of Real US$ $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Federal Energy R&D Investments ( ) Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission) Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor ( ) Fossil Synfuels Program ( ) Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations ( ) Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Efficiency and Renewables As time passed and the oil disruptions of the 1970s faded into memory, the less priority was accorded to investments in new energy technologies. Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 1990s U.S. Venture Capital Invested in "Industrial/Energy" Field, Millions of Constant US$ Millions of Real US$ U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Venture Capital Investments in "Industrial/Energy" Deals Venture Capital Devoted to "Industrial/Energy" Deals as a Percent of All Venture Capital % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Funding for "Industrial/Energy" Field as a Percent of All U.S. Venture Capital Funding Major US Oil and Gas Companies Investments in Energy R&D ( ) Other/Unclassified Energy R&D Nonconventional Energy R&D Downstream Natural Gas Other Coal Coal Gasification/Liquefaction Other Petroleum Gas to Liquids Oil and Gas Recovery
19 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Prices and Projections 2000s (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$)
20 Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 2000s 120 $ Active CO2-driven EOR Projects $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 CO 2 -driven EOR on the upswing. More venture capital is being devoted to energy investments. 20 Active CO2-driven EOR Floods in the U.S. per Year Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$) 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Domestic Oil Price ( US$) CO2-driven EOR Production (b/d) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ U.S. Domestic Oil Production using CO2 EOR (b/d) Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$) Domestic Oil Price ( US$) U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 25% U.S. Venture Capital Invested in "Industrial/Energy" Field, Millions of Constant US$ Funding for "Industrial/Energy" Field as a Percent of All U.S. Venture Capital Funding Venture Capital Investments in "Industrial/Energy" Deals Venture Capital Devoted to "Industrial/Energy" Deals as a Percent of All Venture Capital 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
21 Previous Global Oil Price Projections vs Actual Global Oil Price $/bbl (real US$) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 History of Oil Price Projections and Actual Oil Price (real US$) Average 2008 Price through May 16, Resources in America's Future (RFF 1962) Steele (Feb 1973) Baughman Free Flowing Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) Baughman Restricted Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) IEW (December 1981) Low Cost Scenario:Energy in a Finite World (1981) High Cost Scenario: Energy in a Finite World (1981) Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) Low Price Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) High Price AEO 1982 AEO 1983 IEW (July 1984) AEO 1984 AEO 1985 AEO 1986 AEO 1987 IEW (January 1987) Long Range Projections: Low Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: Reference Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: High Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988) AEO1989 IEW (January 1990) AEO 1990 AEO 1991 AEO 1992 GRI 1992 AEO 1993 IEW (January 1993) AEO 1994 AEO 1995 IEW (January 1996) AEO 1996 AEO 1997 AEO 1998 AEO 1999 AEO 2000 AEO 2001 AEO 2002 AEO 2003 AEO 2004 AEO AEO 2006 Actual 21
22 The Recent History of World Oil Prices in Local Currencies
23 Apr Selected Currency Exchange Rates NominalUS$ Euros Canadian $ 100 Japan Yen 23 Jan-08 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-03 Oct-02 Jul-02 Apr-02 Jan-02 per US$
24 World Oil Prices Expressed in Local Currencies NominalUS$ Euros Canadian $ 100 Japan Yen 24 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-02 Apr-02 local currency per barrel
25 World Oil Prices in Local Currency Jan 2002=1 NominalUS$ Euros Canadian $ 100 Japan Yen 25 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Apr-02 Jul-02 Jan-02 Jan 2002=1
26 Two Core Principals for Good Guide Climate Policy (Edmonds, 1999) Credible Commitment There needs to be a credible expectation that the future energy regime will be different than the past. Technology maturation cycles are significantly longer than political cycles, the Commitment must be binding and transcend multiple political cycles for non-carbon energy technologies to have a chance of achieving significant market penetration. Means of Controlling Real Costs There needs to be a credible expectation that the cost of implementing a commitment will not be too onerous. If sticking with the Commitment is too painful (costly), it will ultimately implode. CO 2 Permit Prices US$ $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 WRE450 WRE550 $29/tonCO 2 $52/tonCO 2 $90/tonCO 2 $143/tonCO 2 $6/tonCO $21/tonCO 2 2 $14/tonCO $8/tonCO 2 $1/tonCO 2 $5/tonCO
27 Back-up Slides 27
28 Federal Energy R&D Investments ( ) $8,000 $7,000 Millions of Real US$ $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1, Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission) Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor ( ) Fossil Synfuels Program ( ) Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations ( ) Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Efficiency and Renewables 28
29 U.S. Oil-fired Electric Generation Investments ( ) % Petroleum (millions of barrels per year) Millions of barrels of peroleum used to generate electricy within the U.S. per year Petroleum (percent of total electricity generation) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Petroleum-fired generation as a percent of all electricity generation % 29
30 Major US Oil and Gas Companies Investments in Energy R&D ( ) Millions of Real US$ $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Other/Unclassified Energy R&D Nonconventional Energy R&D Downstream Natural Gas Other Coal Coal Gasification/Liquefaction Other Petroleum Gas to Liquids Oil and Gas Recovery $
31 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% U.S. Venture Capital Invested in "Industrial/Energy" Field, Millions of Constant US$ Funding for "Industrial/Energy" Field as a Percent of All U.S. Venture Capital Funding Venture Capital Investments in "Industrial/Energy" Deals Venture Capital Devoted to "Industrial/Energy" Deals as a Percent of All Venture Capital
32 Number of U.S. CO 2 EOR Floods $90 Active CO 2 -driven EOR Floods in the U.S. per Year Active CO2-driven EOR Projects Domestic Oil Price ( US$) $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$)
33 300, , , , ,000 50,000 - Domestic U.S. CO 2 EOR Oil Production CO2-driven EOR Production (b/d) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ U.S. Domestic Oil Production using CO2 EOR (b/d) Average Domestic Oil Price $/bbl ( US$) Domestic Oil Price ( US$)
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