Housing Market Update Greater Moncton. Housing market intelligence you can count on

Transcription

1 Housing Market Update Greater Moncton Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook

3 Employed/Labour Force (000 s) Unemployment Rate (%) Total Employment, Labour Force (000 s) and Unemployment Rate (%) Moncton CMA % 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Employment Labour Force Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

4 Annual Employment Growth 10% Moncton CMA 8% 7.4% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% -0.6% 4.5% 1.6% -3.2% 0.3% 4.3% -2.5% YTD Average Annual Increase ( ) 1.7% Employed ,200 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

5 Annual Employment Change by Age Group Year-to-Date 2013 vs Moncton CMA 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% 0.9% 2.3% -16% -20% -18.9% Year-to-date = January to October -24% Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

6 Annual Employment Change by Employment Type Year-to-Date 2013 vs Moncton CMA 8% 6% 4% 3.9% 2% 0% -2% -4% -3.0% -6% -8% Full-Time Year-to-date = January to October Part-Time Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

7 Provincial Migration to Alberta Alberta continues to attract people from New Brunswick Most of the people leaving are under 45 years of age ,000-1,500-2,000 Migration slowed during the 2008/2009 recession -2,500-3,000 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

8 Net Migration Total In-Migration: ,510 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

9 Net Migration Total In-Migration: ,510 Total Out-Migration: ,757 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

10 Net Migration Total In-Migration: ,510 Total Out-Migration: ,757 Net Population Gain 15,753 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

11 Net Migration by County ,000 8,723 8,000 6,000 4,791 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-2,745-6,000 Only 2 counties recorded significant Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data positive net-migration Largest inflows of people were to the Moncton and Fredericton areas

12 3,500 International Migration by County ,000 2,839 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,303 1,725 York County recorded the largest inflow of international migration 1, The inflow of international migrants is centered around the areas with universities Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

13 Percentage Share - International Migration % 80% 60% 40% 20% 7.2% 13.8% 25.4% 18.1% 22.0% 29.1% 20.4% 31.6% 26.4% 42.8% 0% Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

14 Net Migration Greater Moncton (Westmorland County) 2,500 Net Gain Since ,521 2,000 1,500 1,000 Average Annual Gain Since , Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

15 Net-Migration by Age Group ( ) Greater Moncton (Westmorland County) Total Share by Age Group % 25.0% 37.2% 15.1% 4.2% 80.7% 20,000 18,521 15,000 10,000 5, ,894 3,426 4,628 2, Yrs Yrs Yrs Yrs 65 Yrs + Total Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

16 Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook

17 Multiple Starts as a Percentage of Total Starts Moncton CMA 100% 2013 YTD = January to August 80% 71.9% 74.6% 60% 40% 34.4% 20% 0% YTD Residential construction shifted toward multi-residential units Apartment and semi-detached units account for the change Source: CMHC

18 Apartment Starts January to September Moncton CMA Source: CMHC

19 Apartment Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan Sept. 2013) Apartment Starts (12 MMA) Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC

20 Apartment Starts as a % of Multiple Starts Moncton CMA 100% 80% 60% 75% 78% 85% 68% 48% 51% 57% 64% 40% 38% 43% 39% 38% 25% 26% 20% 0% Apartments account for most multiple starts - Semi-detached < $150,000 - Mortgage payment comparable to monthly rent Semi-detached units priced above $150,000 Source: CMHC

21 Rental Market Moncton CMA 1, % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 6.7% 7.8% F Monthly Average Under Construction Jan Dec Jan Sep Source: CMHC

22 Vacancy Rate by Submarket Moncton CMA % 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6% 4% 4.3% 4.6% 3.1% 3.6% 2% 0% Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: CMHC

23 Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Unit Type Moncton CMA $1,200 $1, $897 $800 $600 $485 $619 $731 $709 $400 $200 $0 Bachelor One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Total Estimate of Average Rent Change 1 Oct 2011 to Oct 2012 One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units 2.5% 1.9% 1.6% Source: CMHC 1 The Percentage Change of Average Rent is a measure of the market movement, and is based on those structures that were common to the survey sample for both years.

24 Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Submarket Moncton CMA $800 The average rent was higher in all zones in 2012 $ $709 $702 $752 $720 $600 The City of Dieppe posted the highest average rent in 2012 $500 $400 Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: CMHC

25 2013/2014 Outlook Rental Market Moncton CMA F % Change 2014F Vacancy Rate 6.7% 8.0% 1.3 pts 9.5% Average Rent (Two Bedroom) $731 $ % $760 Further increase in the vacancy rate expected in 2013 Expected rent increase in 2013 will range between 1.5% and 2.5% Source and Forecast: CMHC

26 Semi-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA Source: CMHC 7 th Consecutive year with over 300 semi-detached starts Growth driver during the past decade: Price Average Starts

27 Semi-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA Avg. Monthly Semi-Detached Starts (Jan Sept. 2013) Semi-Detached Starts (12 MMA) Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC

28 Semi-Detached Starts January to September Moncton CMA Source: CMHC

29 Single-Detached vs. Semi-Detached Starts Moncton CMA Single Semi-Det Source: CMHC YTD The decline in single starts was offset by rising semi-detached starts YTD =January to September Both market segments decline due to weakening demand

30 Semi-Detached Starts by Submarket Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA Source: CMHC

31 Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached Units by Price Range Moncton CMA < $150,000 > $150, % 80% 73% 60% 40% 27% 20% 0% YTD 2013 YTD = January to August Source: CMHC

32 Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached Units by Price Range (January to July 2013) Moncton CMA 100% 80% 69.0% Semi-Detached Unit Monthly Carrying Cost Two Bedroom Unit Average Rent 60% 2008 $846 1 $656 40% 20% 26.8% 2013 $1,208 2 $731 0% Less than $150,000 $150,000 - $200, % $200,000 plus 1 Based on $120,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.7% + property tax 2 Based on $170,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.2 % + property tax Source: CMHC

33 Semi-Detached Homes Absorbed and Unabsorbed Units (12 month moving average) Moncton CMA Unabsorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA) Absorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA) Supply of unabsorbed units trending upward in 2013 despite decreased starts due to reduced demand Source: CMHC

34 Condominium Starts as a Percentage of Multiple Starts Moncton CMA 20% Condominium starts as a percentage of multiple starts remain low in % 13% 16% In recent years, condominium starts have been mostly row-type units Source: CMHC 10% 5% 0% 2% 0% 9% 0.3% 1% 6% 4% 8% 2% 6% 0.2% 1% YTD 2013 YTD = January to August

35 2013/2014 Outlook Multiple Starts Moncton CMA F % Change 2014F Multiple Starts % 420 Significant increase in the rental inventory will put upward pressure on the local vacancy rate leading to reduced apartment starts Increased supply of new rental units and rising prices for new semidetached units will likely to result in fewer semi-detached starts Source and Forecast: CMHC

36 Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook

37 Single-Detached Starts January to September Moncton CMA Single-detached starts trending down since 2003 Source: CMHC

38 Single-Detached Starts Historical Perspective Moncton CMA Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan Sept. 2013) Single Starts (12 MMA) Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Source: CMHC

39 Absorbed Inventory Unabsorbed Inventory Single Starts and Unabsorbed Single-Detached Units Moncton CMA Single Starts (12 MMA) Unabsorbed (12 MMA) Source: CMHC

40 Single Starts by Submarket Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA Source: CMHC

41 $111,066 $136,366 $143,138 $148,096 $162,589 $168,883 $191,220 $208,653 $217,173 $226,921 $257,320 $276,730 Average New Home Price Moncton CMA $350,000 $300,000 $291,990 $322,910 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ YTD YTD = January to September Annual Increase 10Year Average + 7.5% Average Two Storey (2012) $333,419 Source: CMHC

42 Average New Home Price Moncton CMA $350,000 $324,487 $300,000 $250,000 $322,910 $267,304 $200,000 $150,000 Moncton Fredericton Saint John $100, YTD 2013 YTD = January to September Source: CMHC

43 2013/2014 Outlook Single Starts Moncton CMA F % Change 2014F Single Starts % 230 The average price of a new home has increased significantly in 2013 Reduced demand will lead to fewer starts in 2013 Source and Forecast: CMHC

44 Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook

45 MLS Unit Sales January to September Moncton CMA Average MLS Sales (Jan Sept. 2013) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (MLS Sales) Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Source: CREA

46 MLS Unit Sales January to September Greater Moncton 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

47 MLS Sales by Submarket January to September Greater Moncton 3,000 2, Year-over-Year Change Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview -3.5% -19.5% +9.3% 2,000 1,500 1,773 1,685 1, Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Town Total Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

48 Average MLS Sale Price Greater Moncton 2011 Average MLS Sale Price $158,561 $180,000 $150,000 $120,000 $159, Average MLS Sale Price $158,107 $90,000 $60,000 $30,000 $0 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association YTD YTD = January to October

49 Annual Price Growth (%) Greater Moncton January to October Greater Moncton Average % Change % 10% 9.4% 10.1% 9.7% + 6.8% 8% 8.4% MLS Sales peaked in 2007 Average % Change % 6% 4% 2% 0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

50 Average MLS Price by Submarket January to September Greater Moncton Year-over-Year Change in Average MLS Sale Price Moncton City +2.3 % Dieppe City % Riverview % $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130, $120,000 Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

51 MLS Sales by Price Range January to September Greater Moncton 2, ,500 1, % Share of Total Sales 50.1% 25.9% 11.7% 6.0% 4.9% 1.5% Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

52 Percentage Change in MLS Sales by Price Range January to September Greater Moncton 40% 30% 26.9% 20% 10% 13.0% 0% -10% -2.3% -1.5% -5.7% -3.3% -20% -12.7% -30% Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

53 New Listings January to October Greater Moncton Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

54 New Listings (% Change) Greater Moncton January to October Greater Moncton 25% 20% 15% 12.4% 15.5% 18.4% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 5.9% 6.8% 2.3% 1.6% 3.0% 1.8% -1.6% -1.4% -4.7% -10.0% Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

55 Average Days on Market Greater Moncton YTD YTD = January to September Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

56 Sales to New Listings Ratio Greater Moncton 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Source: CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association A sales to new-listings ratio between 40% and 60% generally indicates a BALANCED market.

57 Resale Market Classification Greater Moncton Current Conditions Resale Market MLS Sales Decreasing Buyer s New Listings Rising Buyer s Sales to New Listings Ratio Decreasing Buyer s Price Growth Slowing Balanced towards Buyer s Days on Market Increasing Balanced towards Buyer s Greater Moncton BUYER S Source: CMHC/Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

58 Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook

59 2013 Outlook Annual Transactions New and Existing Home Greater Moncton (Semi-detached + Row + Single-detached + MLS Sales) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,273 1,632 3,121 Source : CMHC/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

60 2013/2014 Outlook Resale Market Moncton CMA F % Change 2014F MLS Sales 2,259 2, % 2,050 Average Price $158,106 $156,500-1% $156,000 Moderate decline in existing homes sales expected in both 2013 and 2014 Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS du Grand Moncton/CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Forecast: CMHC

61 2013/2014 Outlook Residential Housing Starts Moncton CMA F % Change 2014F Total Housing Starts 1, % 650 Single Starts % 230 Multiple Starts % 420 Source and Forecast: CMHC

62 Thank You Questions? or Call Claude Gautreau at (506)