Authors: Christian Panzer, Gustav Resch, Reinhard Haas, Patrick Schumacher. Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology

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1 Dervng fuure suppor shemes of RES, y onsderng he os evoluon of RES ehnologes a volale energy and raw maeral pres aompaned y ehnologal learnng mpas Auhors: Chrsan Panzer, Gusav Resh, Renhard Haas, Park Shumaher Energy Eonoms Group, Venna Unversy of Tehnology Cona We: hp://eeg.uwen.a.a Emal: panzer@eeg.uwen.a.a 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 1

2 Conen 1. Movaon European RES Dreve 2020 arges 2. Saus quo of he smulaon ool Green-X Shor haraersaon of he Green-X model 3. Theory and approahes Theoreal mehods of ehnologal learnng 4. Epeed resuls and open quesons 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 2

80% 70% 60% RES poenal 2020 - share on urren (2005) demand Proposed RES arge for 2020 RES share 2005 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Noe: Addonal

3 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LA LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 RES n erms of fnal energy [% of demand] Movaon Naonal RES arges for 2020 he ndng goal! 80% 70% 60% RES poenal share on urren (2005) demand Proposed RES arge for 2020 RES share % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Noe: Addonal poenals do no nlude ofuel mpors How he European Commsson se he arges FLAT RATE & GDP-Varaon.e.: RES-arge 2020 = RES 2005% + 50% *RES NEW % + 50%* RES NEW % GDP-weghng - frs mover onus 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 3

4 Saus quo RES smulaon ool Green-X Models mpa of poly measures n all hree energy seors Dynam os resoure urves Consders ehnology dffuson Tehnologal learnng and oher os nfluenng parameers 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 5

5 Cos reduon - share of nal nvesmen oss (as n he year 2006) [%] Saus quo RES os evoluon Soure: Green-X daaase 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% RES-Elery ehnologes Hydropower Geohermal elery Sold omass - ofrng & large-sale plan Sold omass - smallsale CHP Gaseous omass Gaseous omass CHP Wnd energy Tdal & wave Solar hermal elery Phoovolas Hgh energy pres hanged he overall suaon Pror learnng epeaons wll no e me wh a onnuaon of hgh energy pres (.e. an nrease of nvesmen os ould e oserved for almos all energy ehnologes n 2006 o 2008 aused y nreasng energy and raw maeral pres) 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 6 Resulng (nvesmen) os reduon due o ehnologal progress (learnng) (aordng o he poly senaro)

6 Theory and approahes 0 0 LR 2 1 PR 1 LR 0 0 KS LS Soure: Jungnger e al, 2005 R&D ased knowledge sok KS deermnaon: umulave R&D epenses dreed owards a spef ehnology delay of spen R&D ependures mus e aken no aoun, addressng he fa ha knowledge ends o depreae n he sense ha he mpa of pas R&D epenses gradually dereases. 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 7

7 share of nvesmen oss [%] Theory and approahes 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Onshore Offshore n 0 LR PR 1 LR CP LCP Soure: Shumaher e al, 2010 Componen ehnologal learnng approah: Overall learnng effe mgh e lmed due o hardly any opporuny for fuure doulng of he overall apay u several omponens whn he ehnology mgh have hs poenal a fuure doulng Wnd energy: onshore and offshore urnes, nsallaons PV power: module ype, nsallaon 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 8

Theory and approahes n 0 0 0 CP LCP LR 2 1 PR 1 LR Soure: Folz e al, 2008 Impa of raw maeral pres: Raw maeral pres show srong mpas on oss of energy ehnologes, or a leas eran omponens

8 Theory and approahes n CP LCP LR 2 1 PR 1 LR Soure: Folz e al, 2008 Impa of raw maeral pres: Raw maeral pres show srong mpas on oss of energy ehnologes, or a leas eran omponens Impa (mgh) parly ompensae he ehnologal learnng effe Beyond a eran hreshold of raw maeral pres, maeral susuons mgh e he onsequene 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 9

9 Epeed resuls n CP LCP LR 2 1 PR 1 LR Soure: Yu e al, 2010 Prese appromaon of os evoluon approah ased on: Long oservaon perod s neessary for deermnaon of learnng rae Learnng does no hange over me per defnon oher mpas relevan Prese appromaons for fuure os developmens are essenal n order o desgn effeve and effen RES suppor measures 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 10

10 Praal mplemenaon Componen learnng: Smulaneous produon of omponens o e defned Espeally dfful n Bomass seor Capaes, nal pons and learnng raes requred soure seleon Impa of raw maeral pres Volale pre developmen of maerals referenes, soures? Impa faor mgh hange over me empral, eogenously deermned Comnaon of raw maeral pre and ehnologal learnng s mporan n order o no overesmae one effe Lnkng raw maeral pre o ol pre or oher relevan nfluenng parameer (demand and supply ) Smooh maeral susuon eyond eran level of maeral pre 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 11

11 Thanks for your aenon! In ase of quesons / remarks Emal: panzer@eeg.uwen.a.a Phone: hp://eeg.uwen.a.a 11. Energennovaon-Symposum 2010 Graz 12. Feruar 2010 Fole 12

FIREARMS IN THE EU September respondents. EU Member States PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF FIREARMS

FIREARMS IN THE EU September respondents. EU Member States PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF FIREARMS FIREARMS IN THE EU The disruption of illicit manufacturing and trafficking in firearms is one of the EU s law enforcement priorities for 2014-17 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF FIREARMS Source: Flash Eurobarometer