Economic potential of Agriculture and Pig production in Baltic region. Mindaugas Jurgelis, analyst 30 May, 2012
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1 Economic potential of Agriculture and Pig production in Baltic region Mindaugas Jurgelis, analyst 30 May,
2 Global tendencies of food production 2
3 Food prices near historical peak level FAO food price index ( =100) Source: FAO Food Price Index Cereals Price Index Meat Price Index
4 This year global grains supply is forecast to surpass demand Worldwide supply and demand of grains, mn tonnes Production Consumption / / / / /2012 P Source: International Grains Council 4
5 Meat consumption is expected to grow rapidly Changes of global meat prices Meat demand, mn t 5 Source: FAO 5
6 Prices of oil and grains are strongly correlated Prices of Oil and Grains, USD Source: Reuters EcoWin Brent oil, barrel GSCI grains index
7 Agriculture is sensitive to oil price fluctuations Impact of a 25% increase/decrease of the crude oil price on world commodity prices Source: FAO 7
8 Weathers make agriculture prices unpredictable Impact of 5% increase/decrease of annual yield of cereals on world commodity prices Source: FAO 8
9 Future of agriculture: major tendencies The demand for food products will rise more rapidly than the supply Food prices will remain elevated Prices will be highly volatile 9
10 Agriculture in Baltics 10
11 Agriculture is regaining lost ground in national economies Value added in agriculture, % of total Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Eurostat
12 But the number of people employed in the sector will continue to fall People employed in agriculture, % of total Source: Eurostat Estonia Latvia Lithuania
13 Last year the output of agriculture grew in all three Baltic states Value added at constant prices in Agriculture, 2005 = Lithuania Estonia Latvia Source: Eurostat 13
14 Will meat production form a positive trend? Meat production in Lithuania, thsd. tonnes 530 Other meat Pig meat Total Source: Lithuanian bureau of statistics 14
15 Number of pigs has diminished significantly Number of pigs at the end of the year, thsd Lithuania Latvia Estonia Source: National statistics departments
16 Poultry numbers show more resistance Number of paultry at the end of the year, thsd Lithuania Latvia Estonia Source: National statistics departments 16
17 In relative terms Lithuania still looks strong Number of cattle per capita Number of diary cows per capita Number of pigs per capita Ireland* Denmark France Austria Netherlands Belgium Slovenia Lithuania Estonia Finland Latvia UK Sw eden Germany Poland Spain Portugal Czech R. Italy Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Hungary Ireland Lithuania Denmark Netherlands Latvia Estonia Poland Romania Austria France Slovakia Finland Germany Belgium Bulgaria Sw eden Czech R. Italy UK Slovenia Portugal Hungary Spain Denmark Netherlands Belgium Spain Austria Poland Ireland Germany Hungary Lithuania Estonia Romania Finland France Portugal Slovakia Czech R. Sw eden Latvia Italy Slovenia Bulgaria UK Source: Eurostat 17
18 Livestock farming in Baltics: main obstacles 18
19 Agriculture s productivity is rather low in Latvia, Lithuania Productivity in agriculture, % of national average Slovakia Hungary Estonia Czech R. Sweden Spain Netherlands Denmark Germany Finland Latvia France* Lithuania Italy Bulgaria Ireland* Poland Cyprus EU-27 Slovenia Greece Portugal Austria Source: Eurostat 19
20 Fixed investment in agriculture remains modest Fixed investment, mn LTL Agriculture Food industry Source: Lithuanian bureau of statistics 20
21 Lack of foreign investment is clear FDI in manufacturing and agriculture, mn LTL Manufacturing Manufacture of food products, beverage and tabacco Agriculture Source: Lithuania s central bank 21
22 Negative demographic tendencies prevail in Latvia, Lithuania 101 Country's population, 2000=100% 99 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Eurostat 22
23 Unemployment remains elevated Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, end of period, % Total unemployment Youth unemployment* Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 ES-27 Estonia Latvia Lithuania *Youth unemployment rate in the age group 24 years; Source: Eurostat
24 Inflation outpaces wage increases Average monthly net wages, end of period, EUR Q Averege HCPI yearly inflation, % Maastricht criteria Latvia Lithuania Estonia Estija Latvija Lietuva Source: Eurostat 24
25 Prospects of Pig Production: Export markets 25
26 Russian economy is expanding but remains dependent on oil prices GDP and Brent oil's prices F -7.0 GDP at constant prices, yoy changes Brent oil's price, USD Source: Bloomberg, Troika Dialog 26
27 Inflation in Russia at record lows Unemployment rate and wages Average monthly gross earnings, EUR, rhs Average rate of unemployment, %, lhs F Average inflation, % F Source: Troika Dialog 27
28 Ruble is loosing its value again RUB/EUR rate Source: Bloomberg
29 Poland: Strong Economy GDP at constant prices, yoy change, % F 2013F Source: Troika Dialog 29
30 Source: Bloomberg and weak currency PLN/EUR rate
31 Conclusions Good medium and long term growth prospects for agriculture Agriculture regaining prominence in national economies in the Baltics Productivity in the sector remains rather low In order to grow sustainably producers will have to find their way to larger markets 31 31
32 Thank you for your attention! DNB analytical publications are available at: 32
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