The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources
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1 The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com BANKERS
2 Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy & Research Robert Strand Senior Economist Stephen Newton Research Associate Jack McCabe Research Associate
3 Meet today s speaker Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President Economic Policy & Research I bkleinpaste@aba.com
4 Major Economic Trends Affecting Banking May 21, 2018 Brittany Kleinpaste VP, Economic Policy & Research aba.com BANKERS
5 More of the Same? Jobs Consumer Spending Housing Capital Spending Manufacturing Global Expansion Tax Relief
6 Economic Advisory Committee Forecast Real GDP 2.4% 2.0% Personal Consumption 2.4% 2.0% New Home Sales 681k 730k Core PCE 1.7% 2.0% New Jobs/Month 156k 125k Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.8% Source: ABA Economic Advisory Committee, January 2018
7 Steady GDP Growth Continues 6% 5% 4% 3% ABA EAC Forecast 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Sluggish Expansion Y/Y percent change 15 Recession Real GDP Expansion Average 10 5 Avg: 4.4% Avg: 4.2% Avg: 3.6% Avg: 2.8% Avg: 1.9% 0 Avg: 4.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
9 Consumers Continue to Drive Growth Contribution to GDP Growth 6% Total GDP Growth 3% 1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
10 Consumer Confidence Remains Strong Index Value Source: University of Michigan
11 On the Domestic Watch List 1. Inconsistent business investment 2. Lacking labor force participation 3. Tight housing supply 4. Future rate hikes
12 1. Inconsistent Business Investment Percentage points Nonresidential Fixed Investment GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 Business Investments Weak? Business Investment as a Share of GDP 16 Recessions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
14 Small Businesses Millions Number of businesses <500 employees Pre-2007 trend line : 690,000 missing small businesses : 133,000 missing small businesses Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
15 Single Most Important Problem for Small Businesses 30% 25% 20% 27% Taxes Government Regulation and Red Tape Quality of Labor 21% 15% 10% 11% 13% 13% 14% 5% 0% October 2007 March 2018 Source: National Federation of Independent Business
16 Borrowing Needs Satisfied Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied Source: National Federation of Independent Business
17 Percent Lacking Labor Force Participation LFPR Working Age Population Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, World Bank
18 Payroll Change 000 s 1000 Consistently Strong Job Growth Million Jobs Added over the Last 4 Years ABA EAC Forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Wage Growth Improving Year/Year Growth Averaged 3.4% over Last Two Years 3-Month Moving Average (% Y/Y) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
20 Job Growth by Sector Jobs added since 2009, millions Transportation and Warehousing Manufacturing Construction Retail Trade Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Professional and Business Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 Prime Age Men Not in Labor Force Taking Pain Medication Type of Medication: Prescription OTC 20% Both No Medication 53% 11% 16% Source: Princeton Pain Survey (571 respondents), Alan Krueger
22 Manufacturing Employment Millions 15 Employees Job Openings Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
23 Manufacturing Employment Millions 15 Employees Job Openings Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 3. Tight Housing Supply Months Supply 14 Recessions Source: U.S Census Bureau
25 Housing Starts Millions of Units 3 Recession Average Source: U.S Census Bureau
26 Tight Supply Driving Housing Inflation Index 1991 = House Price Index, Purchase Only Sources: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
27 But is it a bubble? Index 1991 = House Price Index, Purchase Only 230 Average Hourly Earnings Procution, Nonsupervisory Employees Sources: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
28 4. Future Rate Hikes Fed Will Raise Rates Financial conditions remain loose Inflation forecast to read 2% this year Home sales seem unaffected by rate increases Global recovery will reduce risk of large divergence in rates Tax reform and government spending stimulus
29 FOMC Participants 2018 Projections December 2017 Number of Rate Hikes in Source: FOMC (December 2017) FOMC Participants
30 FOMC Participants 2018 Projections March 2018 Number of Rate Hikes in Source: FOMC (March 2018) FOMC Participants
31 Mortgage Rates Not Impacting Home Sales Millions Existing Home Sales Percent year Mortgage Source: Fannie Mae, National Association of Realtors
32 Inflation Makes a Return Y/Y percent change 3% PCE Core PCE FOMC 2% Target 2% 1% 0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
33 Eurozone Inflation in Line with U.S. Percent 3 Germany France U.S Source: OECD, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
34 1.5 Fed Moves while the World Waits Central Bank Policy Rates (%) Switzerland ECB BOE Japan United States Source: Federal Reserve, BoE, BoJ, ECB, SNB
35 Outlook Economic fundamentals are very positive Tax reform and infrastructure spending can boost short term growth but may drive debt and inflation higher Geopolitical turmoil will present unexpected challenges Wages, demographics, and weak productivity will limit potential growth
36 Research resources on aba.com
37 Research resources on aba.com What s new Topics pages ABA staff analyses Key issues Publications Surveys Featured Charts Industry Data
38 Banking Information
39 ABA EAC Economic Forecast
40 Educating Policy Makers Banks sit at the core of the basic credit cycle, which turns the economic wheel of the country. NONBANKS
41 ABA s Benchmarking Tools The Bank Performance Benchmark is a tool allowing you to compare your bank s performance against a custom peer group.
42 ABA Banking Journal bankingjournal.aba.com
43 ABA Infographics ABA.com/Infographics
44 ABA Experts On Call ABA.com/Experts ABA s 300+ staff experts are available at no cost to ABA members Find answers to any question Vehicle for identifying issues bankers are struggling with and exam trends
45 Q&A Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President Economic Policy & Research I bkleinpaste@aba.com
46 Make the most of your ABA member benefits ABA.com/GetStarted
47 Questions about your ABA benefits? Contact: Maureen Onda Kim Michael
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee
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