Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference
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1 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee Extension
2 Overview Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Supply Demand Stocks 2018 Price Outlook
3 Supply, Demand, Stocks, and Price Outlook WHEAT
4 Wheat Production continues to exceed production Total Global Production Billion Bushels Total Consumption Billion Bushels Demand is Flat Stocks are record large Projected Ending Stocks Billion Bushels Prices will continue to struggle to get above $5.00.
5
6 Global Soybean, Corn, and Wheat Consumption per Capita, Corn: : 42% bu/person/year Wheat: : 3% Wheat Corn Soybeans Soybeans: : 64%
7 30.0 Global Wheat Production, Consumption, and Ending Stocks, Billions of Bushels Ending Stocks Production Domestic Consumption
8 Global Days on Hand [Ending Stocks/(Consumption/365)], Days on Hand
9 Supply, Demand, Stocks, and Price Outlook CORN
10 Corn Supply Global Increased acres Multiple production regions United States 2017 acreage down; record yield 2018 acreage flat?
11 Acres Harvested (millions) World Corn Harvested Acres, Million Acres (36 yrs) Million Acres (9 yrs)
12 Source:
13 World Corn Yields by Country (bu/acre) Country 1999 Yield 10 Year Average Yield 2017/18 Yield Difference from 10 Year Average Argentina Brazil China European Union Ukraine United States World U.S. has a major yield advantage over other corn producers. Will US yields plateau? Will/when world yields catch up?
14 Yield (bu/acre) U.S. Yield = x R² = 0.95 U.S. Corn Yields, Yields increasing at a rate of 1.7 bu/acre year. Will this level out or accelerate? Record Yield bu/acre US Linear (US)
15 Corn: U.S. Average Yield USDA WASDE Projected August 10, 2017 = bpa September 12, 2017 = bpa Yield revisions added million bushels to U.S. production October 12, 2017 = bpa November 9, 2017 = bpa December 12, 2017 = bpa January 12, 2018 = bpa
16 Corn Demand and Stocks Global Global corn stocks estimated to shrink but still near record large (build up of stocks in the U.S.). Demand increasing - Continued economic growth is important. United States Domestic carryover continues to be problematic. 13% of production goes to exports. Trade / exports are crucial to reducing domestics stocks. NAFTA and Bi-lateral trade agreements are imperative. Competition for exports from South America and other exporting countries.
17 45 Global Corn Production, Consumption, and Ending Stocks, Billions of Bushels Ending Stocks Production Domestic Consumption
18 Global Days on Hand [Ending Stocks/(Consumption/365)], Days on Hand
19 Corn Supply and Demand January Change 16 to 17 Planted and Harvested Acres (million) & Yield Acres Planted Acres Harvested U.S. Yield (bpa) Supply (Million Bushels) Production 15,148 14, Total Supply 16,942 16,947 5 Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Feed and Residual 5,467 5, Ethanol 5,439 5, Food, Seed & Industrial 1,450 1, Exports 2,293 1, Total Use 14,649 14, U.S. Ending Stocks 2,293 2, Foreign Stocks 6,712 5,655-1,057 Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Avg. Price ($/bu) $3.36 $2.95-$3.55 -$0.10 U.S. Stocks/Use 15.65% 17.12% 1.47%
20 70 U.S. Corn Days on Hand [Ending Stocks/(Use/365)], Days on Hand
21 Corn Prices Range bound prices Old Crop Look for deferred futures contract opportunities to secure price on stored corn. Look for basis improvements. New Crop Start sales with December 2018 corn futures above $3.90. Fix additional production in 5-10 cent increments. For example, $3.90 = 10% of production; $4.00 = 20%. Look for basis opportunities.
22 8 Global Corn Stocks-to-Use to Price Relationship, Price ($/bu) * Projected $ % 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% Stocks-to-Use Ratio
23 8 7 6 U.S. Stocks-to-Use to Price Relationship, Price ($/bu) * Projected
24 Corn Markets: What I m Watching in Early 2018 Old Crop and New Crop NAFTA Exports sales pace (55% compared to 5-yr Avg of 59% of MY total) Planting Intentions (crop insurance price determination period) South American second crop corn plantings Global Economic Growth (Positive, but is it Stable?) U.S. Dollar
25 Supply, Demand, Stocks, and Price Outlook SOYBEANS
26 Soybean Supply Global South American Growth Long Term Growth Prospects in China and India United States 2017 acreage up; 2 nd highest yield 2018 acreage flat?
27 350 World Soybean Harvested Acres, Acres Harvested (millions) Million Acres (31 yrs) +161 Million Acres (23 yrs)
28 Source:
29 World Soybean Yields by Country (bu/acre) Country 1999 Yield 10 Year Average Yield 2017/18 Yield Difference from 10 Year Average Argentina Brazil China United States World U.S. and South American yields are very similar, unlike corn. China has the potential to increase soybean yield and acres (over the long term)
30 60 U.S. Average Soybean Yield, Yield (bu/acre) U.S. Soybean Yield = x R² =
31 Acres (millions) U.S. Planted and Harvested Soybean Acres, Relative prices and lower input costs continue to make soybeans attractive to plant Harvested Planted
32 Global Soybean Demand and Stocks Global soybean stocks are growing (build up of stocks in the U.S.). Demand increasing - continued economic growth is important. United States Strong domestic crush increases year-over-year. Almost 50/50 domestic use and exports. Trade / exports are crucial to reducing domestics stocks. Bi-lateral trade agreements are imperative. Competition for exports from South America and other exporting countries.
33 14 Global Soybean Production, Consumption, and Ending Stocks, Billions opf Bushels Ending Stocks Production Domestic Consumption
34 120 Global Soybean Days on Hand [Ending Stocks/(Consumption/365)], # of Days Meal Oil Soybean Meal Oil Soybean
35 Soybean Supply and Demand January Change 16 to 17 Planted and Harvested Acres (millions) & Yield Acres Planted Acres Harvested U.S. Yield (bpa) Supply (Million Bushels) Production 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,296 4, Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4, Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Crushing 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,899 1, Exports 1,638 1,842 1,942 2,174 2, Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,213 4, U.S. Ending Stocks Foreign Stocks 2,211 2,658 2,670 3,244 3, Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Price ($/bu) $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $8.80-$9.80 -$0.17 U.S. Stocks/Use 2.65% 4.95% 4.99% 7.17% 11.06% 3.90%
36 U.S. Soybean, Soybean Oil, and Soybean Meal Days on Hand [(Ending Stocks/(Use/365)], Meal Oil Soybean Meal Oil Soybean
37 Past Revisions to USDA Ending Stocks (Will they continue.) 2013/ / / / /18 August December July Final/Current
38 2.5 Soybean Exports as of Week Ending 01/18/2018 (20 Weeks) Billions of Bushels Year Average 1/ 2013/ / / / /2018 Accumulated Exports to Date Outstanding Sales MY Export Target
39 Soybean Pricing Old Crop Hopefully not much left to price. Basis opportunities are likely muted compared to previous years. New Crop $10.00 on the November start selling production in increments Secure a basis / cash price when favorable basis is presented.
40 Nearby Close
41 1.00 Lower-Middle Tennessee Soybeans Basis, (0.20) (0.40) (0.60) January 13 March 13 May 13 July 13 September 13 November 13 January 14 March 14 May 14 July 14 September 14 November 14 January 15 March 15 May 15 July 15 September 15 November 2015 January 2016 March 2016 May 2016 July 2016 September 2016 November 2016 January 2017 March 2017 May 2017 July 2017 September 2017 November 2017
42
43 Soybean Markets: What I m Watching in Early Old Crop and New Crop Trade with China 2018 Exports (Sales Pace and Shipments vs. Sales) South American Production (Brazil Up? Argentina Down?) Global Economic Growth (Positive, but is it Stable?) USD/Brazilian Real/Argentinian Peso/Chinese Yuan (Weaker USD = More U.S. Exports)
44 Questions? THANK YOU!
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