Rebalancing Global Crude Flows

Transcription

1 Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John R. Auers Executive Vice President AIChE Dallas Chapter April Section Meeting April 28, 2015 Page 1

2 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C began publishing North American Crude & Condensate Outlooks in 2012 Early editions focused primarily on impacts to North American crude flows An important subject in the 2014 edition was the impact on global crude supply and demand Page 2

3 Millions of BPD North American Production Gains U.S. crude oil production grew by 3.6 million BPD from 2008 to 2014 The U.S. had its greatest oil growth in 2014 at 1.2 million BPD Canadian production grew by 1.1 million BPD between 2008 and 2014 U.S. Canada Source: EIA Page 3

4 Millions of BPD Global Crude Production Growth from U.S. World Canada Iraq Russia Saudi Arabia Source: EIA, JODI, TM&C China Mexico U.K. Norway World (excl. U.S.) Libya Iran Page 4

5 Millions of BPD Initial U.S. and Canadian Crude Projections U.S. production to peak 2022 at 12.1 million BPD Canadian production to grow to 5.7 million BPD in U.S. Canada Page 5

6 Millions of BPD Initial Global Crude Supply and Demand Implications million BPD Supply overhang grows to 4.7 million BPD around Supply Demand Crude production growth flattens after 2020 Assumes Saudi production at 9.7 million BPD Page 6

7 Millions of BPD Saudi Production as Traditional Global Balancer Output declines from 9.7 million BPD to low of 5 million BPD Output rises after 2020 due to flattening of global supply growth Page 7

8 Conclusions from Initial Global Balance Global crude supply grows faster than demand in the near term Required Saudi output to balance are unrealistically low A new crude supply/demand/price equilibrium point was calculated Page 8

9 Saudi Production, Million BPD Saudi Percent of OPEC Recent Saudi Production Levels Low of 7.6 million BPD in 2002 Saudi market share of OPEC at low in 2009 at 26.8% Saudi Production Percent of OPEC Source: EIA 26 Page 9

10 Rebalance Assuming Saudi Arabia Will Defend Stated Price Range Minimum Saudi production of 8.25 million BPD Maximum Saudi production at 11.0 million BPD Minimum Saudi OPEC share at 25% Focus on high production cost regions Re-evaluate global product demand at lower prices Re-evaluate alternate fuels growth Objective new crude supply/demand balance Page 10

11 Supply/Demand Responses Needed to Rebalance MMBPD Increased product demand 1.3 Reduce Alternate Fuels 0.4 Crude Reductions Saudi Arabia 1.3 Other OPEC 1.0 Non-OPEC 0.7 Total 4.7 Page 11

12 Petroleum Demand, Million BPD Change in Demand, Million BPD Cumulative Product Demand Response to Lower Price Regime Incremental demand rises to 1.3 million BPD in million BPD Base Adjusted Change 0.0 Page 12

13 Petroleum Demand, Million BPD Change in Demand, Million BPD Cumulative Product Demand Response to Lower Price Regime Incremental demand peaks at 2.0 million BPD Adjustment declines after 2023 Incremental demand occurs mostly in developed economies Base Adjusted Change Page 13

14 Million BPD Revised Alternate Fuels Demand Most alternate fuels production is mandate driven Greatest reduction will be seen in NGL output Refinery Gain Alternate Fuels NGLs Page 14

15 Million BPD Revised Global Production Growth: 2014 to North America South America Europe Middle East Africa FSU Asia Pacific Page 15

16 Saudi Production, Million BPD Saudi Percent of OPEC Revised Hypothetical Saudi Forecast Saudi Production Percent of OPEC 25 Page 16

17 OPEC Crude Production Production MBPD Decline MBPD MBPD Percent Saudi Arabia 9,900 3,388 6, Other OPEC 15,483 11,979 3, ,383 15,367 10,016 Source: EIA Page 17

18 Why OPEC Can Make It Work This Time Over-supply volume is less than 1980s Third party verification of production volumes - JODI Hybrid approach compared to only quota reductions to maintain price Saudi Arabia has demonstrated willingness to allow price declines but does desire higher price levels long term Page 18

19 What Really Happened Oil price fell as Saudi Arabia defended its global market share November 2014 OPEC meeting declined to set production quotas Next OPEC meeting scheduled for June 5, 2015 Early U.S. demand response looks encouraging Prices and rig counts have fallen; actual production has been slower to respond Page 19

20 Million Barrels Cushing Crude Inventory Logistic Constraints Stocks have been building at 275 MBPD since Nov. EIA states working capacity at 70 million barrels Cushing predicted to be full in May 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: EIA Page 20

21 Dollars per Barrel Recent NYMEX WTI Forward Curve Jun 14 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Page 21

22 Million Barrels U.S. Crude Inventory (Excluding SPR) Crude inventories are building across U.S. Vessel time charters for floating storage are increasing Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: EIA Page 22

23 BPD U.S. Crude Production Forecast Revised forecast shows declines over near term Will take longer to achieve peak Long term forecast should be similar 2014 Years Forecast Before Price Decline Current Forecast Page 23

24 Conclusions Tight oil development in the U.S. has changed the world crude supply dynamic N.A. production growth has overwhelmed demand and led to an oversupplied market Saudi s first move has been to defend market share rather than price, leading to price collapse Ultimately, we do expect the Saudi s/opec to adopt a dual strategy of output and pricing reductions This will be supported by more cohesion than in 1980s Page 24

25 Conclusions (cont.) Supply overhang/low prices will persist in near term 2015 crude prices likely to be very volatile Eventually supply and demand responses will bring market back into balance Our longer term price environment has Brent at $80+ U.S. oil production by 2025 will likely be comparable to forecasts prior to price collapse Page 25

26 Presenter John R. Auers Executive Vice President Turner, Mason & Company 2100 Ross Ave., Suite 2920 Dallas, Texas turnermason.com Page 26