Utah s Demographic Transformation

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1 Utah s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. University Of Utah December 3, 2009 Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line:

2 Utah: Trend Toward Nation 5.0 Total Fertility Rates Utah U.S.

3 Utah: Trend Toward Nation 6 Household Size Utah U.S.

4 Utah: Trend Toward Nation Median Age Utah U.S.

5 Utah: Trend Toward Nation Minority Share 40% 34.4% 30% 20% 18.3% 10% 0% 1.9% 11.4% Utah U.S

6 U.S. Population Growth: % 2.4% High Immigration, High Fertility Immigration Restrictions Baby Boom Annual Percentage Change 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0% Flu Epidemic and WWI Great Depression Moderate Immigration, Low Fertility Growth Rate -0.6%

7 U.S. Population by Region: Millions of Persons South Midwest Northeast West Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

8 Utah: Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change 5% 4% Natural Increase Net Migration Population Change 3% Annual Rates 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.

9 Utah and U.S. Annual Births 70 U.S. Boom Peak: 1957 U.S. Echo Peak: US Births Exceed Utah Births (thousands) Utah Boom Peak: 1962 Utah Echo Peak: Utah Echo Echo Peak: 2010?? US Births (Millions) Utah US 0

10 Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected 900, ,000 High Economic Growth and Fertility 2002 Baseline Low Economic Growth and Fertility 2005 GOPB Baseline 600, , , Source: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/

11 Utah Population Years Old: Historical & Projected 500, , : High Economic Growth, High Fertility 18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births years prior Bureau of Census 2005 GOPB , ,000 Age wave hits college ages , Source: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.

12 U.S. Foreign Born Population: % Foreign Born Share of Total Population 15% 10% 5% 14.7% Share Millions 12.6% Number of Foreign Born (Millions) 0% Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

13 Utah Foreign Born Population: Foreign Born Share of Total Population 20% 15% 10% 5% 19.4% 17.6% 13.1% 9.5% 6% Share 4.3% 3.6% Number 2.8% 3.5% 3.4% 226, % 8.3% Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) 0% Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

14 Top Occupations of Utah s Foreign Born Assemblers & Fabricators Cooks Maids/Housekeeping Construction Laborers Janitors Production Workers Cashiers Grounds Maintenance Workers Laborers / Material Movers, Retail Salespersons Customer Service Rep. Waiters and Waitresses Truck Drivers Carpenters Post-secondary Teachers Misc. Agricultural Workers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

15 Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah s Foreign Born Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops. Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists Dishwashers Drywall Installers Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

16 Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000) College Graduate or Greater 30% 31% 22% 28% 18% High School or Greater 55% 62% 75% 87% 90% Less than High School 13% 10% 25% 38% 46% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 23% 45% 68% 90%

17 Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000) College Graduate or Greater 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% High School or Greater 67% 60% 78% 88% 90% Less than High School 12% 10% 22% 33% 40% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

18 Utah s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v Europe 95% Northern America 5% Africa Oceania 2% 3% Asia 2.5% Europe 11% Asia 18% Latin America 63% Northern America 2.5%

19 Minority Share of the Population: U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County 60% 48% 36% 24% 12% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 0% US Salt Lake State of Utah 17% 5% 20% 8% 10% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8% 9% 6% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% % 31% 19% 15% 34% 35% 24% 27% 18.3%19% 40% 32% 34% 37% 22% 45% 49% 54% 41% 25% 27% 30% Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR

20 Minority Share by Age Group: Utah and Salt Lake County % 33.5% Salt Lake County Utah % 25.4% 24.5% 26.6% 26% 30.1% 27.9% 24.7% 2008 Average State Share 22.3% 22.6% 22.3% 21.8% % 16.1% 18.3% 19.5% 19.5% 16.2% 15.3% 18.3% % 12.8% 13.2% 12.7% 12.5% 11.1% 11.2% 9.8% 10.3% 9.1% 9.5% 8.4% 7.5% 7% 6.7% 0 < Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.

21 U.S. Minority Share by Age Group: % 52.5% 45% 49% 54% 58% 62% % 50% 46% 40% 42% 35% 35% 29% 35% 20% 24% 17.5% 0% Under through years and Older Source: Bureau of the Census.

22 Minority Contribution to Utah Population and School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007 Population Growth Enrollment Growth Minority 33% White Non-Hispanic 35% White Non-Hispanic 67% Minority 65%

23 Educational Transition Points 100 Latina/o Elementary Students 40 High School Graduates 100 White Elementary Students 84 High School Graduates 4 College Graduates 1 Graduate School Completion <1 Doctorate 26 College Graduates 10 Graduate School Completion 1 Doctorate Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah

24 Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah 1,200,000 Less than 5 years old 1,133,594 5 through 17 years old 960, years and older 65 years and older 60+ > , , , , , , ,

25 Selected Age Group Projections for State of U.S. 120,000,000 96,000,000 Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old 60 years and older 65 years and older ,000, : 60+ > ,159,113 48,000,000 24,000,000 35,107,491 19,197,

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