Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011
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1 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics
2 U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) Source: BEA, FedEx Corporate Economics 2
3 Inventories Generally Lean, Especially at the Retail Level Real Inventory/Sales Ratio: Retail Real Inventory/Sales Ratio: Total Business Source: U.S. Census Bureau 3
4 Corporate Balance Sheets Healthy, Enabling Firms to Continue to Invest in Equipment and Software Corporate Profits SAAR, Bil$ Real Investment: Equipment & Software SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2005$ Source: U.S. BEA
5 Exports Have Been a Bright Spot US Goods Exports SA, Mil. Chn. 2005$ Advanced Technology Imports SA, Mil US$ Source: U.S. Census, Federal Reserve Board Trade Weighted Dollar Jan 97= Source: U.S. Census, Haver Analytics Advanced Technology Exports SA, Mil US$ 5
6 Consumers Still Spending Despite Weak Sentiment 9500 U.S. Real Consumer Spending Bil. Chn US$, SAAR Source: U.S. BEA
7 U.S. Households Continue to Deleverage 7
8 If Businesses Continue to Invest, History Reassures that Jobs Will Follow YoY % Change (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) Source: BEA & BLS Business Investment & Jobs Creation Real Private Non-Residential Investment Initial Jobless Claims (Inverse Scale) Thousands % Growth (2) Business Productivity Output Per Hour (4) Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 QoQ SAAR of Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis YoY Rate of Growth 8
9 Still Plenty of Pent-up Demand for Durable Goods 21.5 Light Vehicle Sales, SAAR, Mil. Units Cash for Clunkers Scrap Rate = 12 Million Units per Year Source: U.S. BEA 9
10 For Housing Cyclical Factors Continue to Trump Long Run Fundamentals Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate Total Real Estate Assets Real Estate Equity Home Mortgage Debt Millions Trillions U.S. Housing Starts Average 1960 to Present 0.0 Jan-60 Jan-70 Jan-80 Jan-90 Jan-00 Jan-10 Source: Census 5 0 Q1:85 Q1:90 Q1:95 Q1:00 Q1:05 Q1:10 Source: Federal Reserve Board 10
11 Global Outlook A Two-Speed World Led by Emerging Countries Global Real GDP Growth Forecast Real GDP Growth % (2) (4) (6) World GDP Emerging Markets Developed Countries Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, FedEx Corporate Economics 11
12 V-Shaped Disaster Recovery in Japan 100 Industrial Production (2005=100) 150 Export Volume (2005=100) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 12
13 Positive Growth in EU, Despite Debt Crisis Eurozone Germany Real GDP Growth YOY% Source: Eurostat, Deutsche Bundesbank 13
14 Global Trade Growth Decelerating After Record Growth in World Trade Volume Index, 2000= % YOY year-to-date thru June Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 14
15 Trade Deepening Back on Track Recession Not the End of the Globalization Story 28% 26% 24% Merchandise Exports Share of World GDP (%) 26% 22% 20% 18% 16% 16% 14% 12% est. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit / Haver Analytics 15
16 Emerging Markets Will Continue to Lead, and APAC is the Growth Engine 7 Annualized GDP Growth Emerging Markets annualized growth % Developed Markets 1 0 North America EMEA LAC APAC Emerging Asia Source: FedEx Corporate Economics, EIU 16
17 Emerging Market GDP to Overtake Developed Economies on a Purchasing Power Parity Basis 70 Developed vs. Emerging Markets % of Global GDP Forecast 65 % of World GDP (PPP basis) Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Source: International Monetary Fund 17
18 Challenges and Uncertainties Going Forward Regulatory uncertainty European sovereign debt crisis Soft landings in the emerging markets Commodity prices Geopolitical uncertainties 18
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