Competitiveness
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- Nickolas Harrison
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1 North Carolina Competitiveness NC
2 Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the mouth Mike Tyson
3 The Punch Job Change 1990 to , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,905 30,685 16,530 The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs 92,531 6,119 8,338 86,962 30,229 Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture Source: NCESC.com
4 NC Employment Changes By Sector 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% % 35% 27% 28% 28% 18% 1% 3% 1% 0% -9% -13% -18% -30% -26% -42% Accom/Food Art/Enter Health Education Prof/Tech Real Estate Finance/Ins Info Trans/Ware Retail Wholesale Manufacturing Construction Mining Agriculture Total Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: QCEW County Sector Data
5 NC Employment Growth 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Jan Annual Employment Source:NCESC.com
6 Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Job Growth % 10% 5% 5.4% 9.2% 6.4% 0% -5% -1.8% -2.6% -0.9% -10% -15% -20% -25% -21.4% -9.9% Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Source: QCEW County Sector Data
7 Source: Georgetown Public Policy Institute, Carnevale and Smith, July 2012 NC Real GDP By Industry % 20% 18% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1% 5% 4% 3% 13% 11% 11% 3% 5% 4% 4% 11% 10% 1% 1% 7% 7% 15% 3% 3% 2% 2% 14% NC South
8 Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Manufacturing Growth % -10% -20% -30% -25.4% -40% -50% -46.7% -41.4% -46.1% -33.8% -36.4% -42.6% -60% -53.1% Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Source: QCEW County Sector Data
9 Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes August 2012 to August % 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Nov, 2013 Measured Aug Aug 2013
10 Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes 300, , , , , , ,000 50, ,600 66,700 43,300 13,300 21,30038,900 36,600 20,400 35,200 32,200 33,300 12,200 9,800 7,600 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured May 2012 to May 2013
11 Southern States Per Capita Income (% Different from Nation Change) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 39.2% U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73% 31.5% 20.5% 22.0% 19.7% 18.2% 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 11.2% 6.7% 1.5% -5.1% -4.3% -13.0% -10.7% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: bber, University of New Mexico
12 NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 United States $20,000 NC $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ Source: bber, University of New Mexico
13 Southern States Real Personal Income Change % 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Change 2.7% 4.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: BLS, June 2013
14 Source: BEA July % 30.0% 25.0% Southern States Private Sector GDP Growth % 30.7% 25.1% 20.0% 15.0% 17.1% 15.4% 18.3% 16.1% 17.9% 20.9% 16.8% 10.0% 5.0% 9.7% 10.0% 5.8% 9.7% 10.7% 7.7% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
15 Source: BEA July % Southern States Manufacturing GDP Growth % 7.9% 6.0% 5.4% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 0.5% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% -2.0% -4.0% -1.2% -1.9% -2.2% -2.7% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
16 GDP/Capita Changes in the NC $50, $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30, NC USA Source: BEA, Oct 2012
17 Major Global Trends Impacting Competitiveness
18 Urbanization We Are Becoming A World Where People Live in Urban Regions
19 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities of 1 million or more In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas 80% 0% Metro Non-Metro Source: Census
20 60% Southern States % of Population Rural % 40% 30% 41% 44% 25% 42% 27% 30% 51% 34% 34% 34% 34% 25% 51% 20% 10% 9% 13% 15% 0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. Census 2010
21 NC Gross State Product 2011 Other Metros 6% Non-Metro 19% Charlotte 25% Fayetteville 4% Asheville 3% Hickory 3% Wilmington 3% Piedmont Triad 14% Research Triangle 23% Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013
22 2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas Of 366 Metropolitan Areas Top Third (7) Middle Third (3) Bottom Third (4) Of 576 Micropolitan Areas Top Third (8) Middle Third (4) Bottom Third (14) Source: Policom.com, 2013
23 350 Economic Strength Rankings 2013 (NC) (Annual Rank of the 366 Metro Areas) Charlotte Raleigh Durham Fayetteville Wilmington Winston-Salem Greensboro Asheville Hickory Source: Policom Corporation, 2013
24 Global Interdependence
25
26 State Goods Exports Per Capita 2012 $16,000 $14,000 $13,724 $12,000 $10,000 $10,183 $8,000 $6,000 $4,049 $5,043 $3,946 $5,345 $4,821 $6,124 $4,000 $2,000 $3,437 $3,618 $2,584 $2,002 $2,310 $2,948 $1,724 $2,228 $0 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade
27 Technology
28 Energy McKinsey & Company Disruptive Technologies: May 2013 Mobile Internet Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intelligence, 3D Printing
29 State Technology and Science Index Indicators in R &D, Risk Capital, Entrepreneurial infrastructure, Human Capital, Tech and Science Workforce, and Tech Concentration and Dynamism 2 29 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Milken Institute April 2013
30 North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States Tech Concentration 10 Tech & Science Workforce 26 Human Capital 23 Risk Capital 25 R &D Source: Milken Institute April 2013
31 North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States 2010 & 2013 Tech Concentration Tech & Science Workforce Human Capital Risk Capital 8 25 R &D Overall Source: Milken Institute April 2013
32 The Talent Bar
33 US Adults Years School Completed 80% 76% In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA 70% 60% In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA % % 30% 20% 10% 31% 14% 13% 37% 31% 26% 15% 5% 5% 17% 30% % Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus
34 Degree Attainment Rate By Southern State % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 45% 44% 37% 36% 38% 36% 35% 32% 32% 30% 32% 34% 28% 28% 30% 26% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Lumina Foundation, March 2012
35
36 Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013
37 Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, % 30.0% Southern States Percentage of New Jobs Paying Middle Wage 32.0% 30.0% 29.0% 29.0% 25.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 24.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 18.0% 16.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0% 19.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
38 Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July % Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 22.6% 20.0% 15.0% 15.9% 19.0% 19.5% 17.0% 20.4% 19.1% 19.1% 15.8% 17.9% 17.2% 18.9% 18.3% 18.5% 18.6% 10.0% 10.1% 11.5% 5.0% 0.0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)
39 30% Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 1983 (Blue) & 2013 (Red) 27% 25% 20% 15% 23% 22% 22% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 20% 18% 15% 16% 17% 15% 23% 18% 16% 21% 20% 17% 17% 19% 18% 11% 12% 10% 5% 0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED) Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July 2013,SGPB Profile of the South, 1986
40 Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/ % Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 5 Years 10.0% 9.8% 5.0% 3.3% 5.7% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -6.8% -0.4% -10.1% 0.6% -8.5% -5.0% -5.1% -8.0% -7.9% -2.1% -2.6% -0.2% -15.0% -20.0% -15.9% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
41 Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/ % 10.0% Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 12 month 10.5% 10.8% 8.0% 6.7% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 4.7% 5.3% 4.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
42 Today s Persistent New Reality The economy changed The competition changed Locational factors changed The U.S. workforce has changed The talent demands changed Life cycles have changed Tools have changed Customer (talent & companies) demands/expectations changed The pace of change and everything else changed
43 Recommendations Align activities around a common plan, measure everything Decide on a spatial strategy Build great cities Focus on education-job skills alignment Increase workforce training capacity at the Community Colleges with a goal of national differentiation Focus on growth clusters where we currently have a competitive advantage
44 Recommendations Global is where the growth is, increase trade resources and grow export base (more companies exporting more to more places) Double down on the military, understand the military future Tell a compelling story Aspire for NC to be a U.S. leader in Economic Development thinking, innovation, and execution
45
North Carolina Competitiveness
ted@econleadership.com North Carolina Competitiveness NC 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012 182,905 The loss of about 8 of our
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