Session 4. Growth. Macroeconomics in the Global Economy
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1 Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 100 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth for the World Economy The Determinants of Economic Growth. The 4 I s of Economic Growth
2 Indonesia 2.5% Mexico 2.0% Saudi Arabia 1.5% Turkey 1.4% Iran 1.2% Other Emerging, 27.2% Measuring GDP Across Countries Production (GDP, 2016). Measured in USD (PPP) EU, 16.8% Germany 3.3% UK 2.3% France 2.3% Italy 1.9% Spain 1.4% US, 15.6% India 7.3% Russia 3.1% Brazil 2.6% BRI, 13.1% China, 17.9% Other Advanced, 9.5% Japan 4.1% Korea 1.6% Canada 1.4% Australia 1.0%
3 Population as a Resource Population (2015). World 7.3 Billion Indonesia 3.5% Pakistan 2.6% Nigeria 2.5% Bangladesh 2.2% EU, 7.0% US, 4.4% Other Advanced, 3.1% Other Emerging, 43.8% China, 18.9% India 18.0% Brazil 2.8% Russia 2.0% BRI, 22.7%
4 Total GDP = Population x GDP per capita GDP Per Capita (USD, PPP) World Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging Asia Latin America India China Russia Japan EU USA 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
5 GDP Per Capita = Technology + Effort 2016 Levels. US = 100 GDP Per Capita GDP per Hour France Germany Japan Korea United Kingdom Australia Singapore Indonesia United States
6 12.0 World Population Billions Advanced Emerging
7 Demographics 2,500 2,000 1, Population 2015 versus , European Union North America Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia Japan
8 Demographics Age Dependency 2015 versus 2050 Younger than 16 and older than 65 as a ratio to working age population European Union North America Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia Japan
9 Demographics Working-Age Population Growth World Advanced Sub-Saharan Africa Asia
10 Forecasting 80 Years Ahead US Real GDP per Capita Put yourself in have been asked to forecast income per capita in the year
11 Forecasting 80 Years Ahead US Real GDP per Capita You collect data for GDP per capita from 1870 to
12 Forecasting 80 Years Ahead US Real GDP per Capita Fit a trend that assumes a constant growth rate
13 Forecasting 80 Years Ahead US Real GDP per Capita Use the fitted trend to forecast US income per capita. You find that it grows by a factor of 5 and will reach $63,096 in
14 Forecasting 80 Years Ahead US Real GDP per Capita You predicted $63,096 in 2016 and the actual number is $57,293, an error of 5%. Not bad. You deserve a promotion
15 Technological Revolutions Take Place World GDP Per Capita 9.2 6, GDP Per Capita (2007 USD) 3, Year
16 but not as often as we think. The New Economy. It seems almost too good to be true With the information technology sector leading the way, the U.S. has enjoyed almost 4% growth since This spectacular boom was not built on smoke and mirrors. The result is the so-called New Economy: faster growth and lower inflation. We are in a period of the most wonderful progress in science and invention, especially as applied to communication and transportation, this or any other country has ever known. It is obviously our present great fortune to live in what, in the light of history, will be recognized as a golden age of American industry. "My great economists don't want me to say this, but I think we can do better than 4%"
17 US Economy: Summary Very stable growth rates over the period Do not take this growth rate for granted. It is based on a continuous effort to innovate, to improve production processes. A succession of small revolutions (like the new economy ) The US economy seems to be at a steady-state where economic conditions are such that investment and research efforts undertook by companies over this period have produced a fairly even pattern of growth in economic activity This pattern is surprising giving the amount of changes we have seen over this century. For example R&D to sales ratio are today much higher than 100 years ago. Why doesn t it lead to higher productivity growth?
18 Advanced Economies Real GDP Per Capita (PPP) USA UK Germany France Italy Japan Korea
19 Remember Effort Matters Real GDP Per Hour (PPP) USA France
20 Characterizing Long-Term Growth for OECD Economies OECD economies have been converging to similar levels of GDP per capita. Some countries are further along the process while others still have room to converge As countries converge to US levels of GDP per capita, their growth rates decline. Countries are approaching their steady state. The steady state might not be the same for all countries. For example, a very patient society (one that values the future more relative to the present) will be willing to invest more than a less patient society. As a result, its steady state will be higher. These dynamics are well described by The Solow Model (as proposed by Robert E. Solow in 1956).
21 Emerging Markets: Real GDP Per Capita (PPP) USA Argentina Chile Brazil Korea India China
22 Emerging Markets 10 Annual Growth GDP Per Capita Korea USA Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
23 Emerging Markets Annual Growth GDP Per Capita China Korea ? USA Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
24 Emerging Markets: Catching up as well? 10 Annual Growth GDP Per Capita Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
25 Emerging Markets: Catching up as well? 10 Annual Growth GDP Per Capita Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
26 Emerging Markets: Catching up as well? 10 Annual Growth GDP Per Capita Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
27 Emerging Markets: Catching up as well? Annual Growth GDP Per Capita China Korea Ireland Hong Kong Singapore Norway India Brazil Initial GDP Per Capita Relative to US level
28
29 Shifting Economic Power World Economic Center of Gravity 1980 Today 2050? More than 50% of the World Population Source: Danny Quah (LSE)
30 Shifting Powers
31 What drives Growth differences? Production is the result of two factors: 1. Inputs in the production process: hours, capital (a result of investment in physical and human capital, knowledge) 2. Their productivity, which is also driven by investment in capital, knowledge, technology Hypothesis: Countries that invest more grow faster. Investment rates (as % of GDP) over the last 3 decades Singapore 35% Venezuela 20% Investment rate in China today: almost 50%!!!
32 The main determinant of growth is accumulation of capital. Countries with higher investment rates have outperformed countries with low investment rates. Growth GDP per capita (%) Period: Bolivia Brazil Guatemala Investment and Growth S Africa Investment and Growth USA Chile India Botswana France Korea Singapore Investment in physical capital (% of GDP) China
33 Investment in Human capital and Growth
34 Determinants of Economic Growth Productivity (technological progress) if you are close to the frontier. Investment (in physical capital, in education, ) if you are far from the frontier. But what drives Investment? Institutions: property rights, absence of corruption, good governments Stability (macroeconomic and political)
35 Political stability
36 Political stability
37 Transparency
38 Accountability
39 Institutions Drive Investment and Growth Singapore Brazil Procedures to start a business 3 11 Days to open a business Taxes as % of profits 18% 69% Source: Doing Business 2015, World Bank
40 Oil Producing Countries 2.50 Institutions Matter Institutional Quality 2.00 NZLFIN DNK SWE NOR NLDCHE CAN AUS AUT SGP DEU GBR IRLHKG 1.50 BEL JPN CHL FRA USA EST PRT CYP 1.00 MUS POL LTUSVN CZE URY ESP BWA LVASVK KOR QAT CRI HUN ISR PRI ITA HRV NAM MYS 0.50 GRC GEO ZAF GHA BGR JAM PAN TTO OMN LSO MKD BRA RWA ARM SLVMNG JOR SRB TUR BHR 0.00 SEN MEX ZMB ALB MDA BIH BEN TUN PER MAR DOM MWI LKA COLTHA IND PHL 9.00IDN SAU MOZ BFA TZA NICVNM SWZ KSV UGA BOL CHN GAB GMB PNG GTM ECU SLE HND PRY NER KEN LBN LBR KHM UKR AZE KAZ RUS MDGMLI NPL KGZ LAO MRT CIV DZA BLR TGO ETH CMR BGD EGY BDI HTI GIN PAK COG AGO IRN TJK NGA UZB GNB ZWE TCD YEM TKM IRQ VEN ERI SSD LBY CAF COD AFG SDN Source: Fatás and Mihov (HBR 2009), updated. GDP Per Capita (2013)
41 Institutions Matter 2 Institutional quality Developing Country China 1980 Emerging Market China 2016 Poland 1990 Advanced Economy Poland Income per capita
42 Summary on Economic Growth: The Four I s Innovation Initial conditions Investment Institutions The incentives to innovate (e.g. respect of intellectual property rights) will shift the technology frontier. This is the main force behind growth in the developed countries. Provides the potential for catching up. Poor countries can grow faster when they set on a convergence path to the rich economies A key ingredient in the process of convergence is the building up of the capital stock. This requires high investment rates. Miracles are countries with investment of over 25% of GDP. In addition to physical investment, it is important to invest in human capital, efficiency, technology What drives investment: stability, institutions. The best way to ensure sound macroeconomic policies (i.e. stability) and political stability is to build institutions that create incentives for stability: Independent central bank, checks and balances, rule of law, transparency. US, Japan, France, Germany Europe after WWII, China today High growth (Korea) 35%; Steady state (US, Germany) ~ 18% There is not a single country that has become rich with poor-quality institutions
43 Session 4. Summary The 4 I s framework summarizes how economic success has been a result of providing the appropriate conditions (macroeconomic and institutional) for investment and, more generally, for business creation to take place. Growth in income per capita is the outcome of accumulation of capital and productivity growth. Investment (understood broadly) drives capital accumulation and productivity growth. High investment rates are needed to grow fast. The growth dynamics of the world economy can be characterized by The US and other OECD countries (the technology frontier ) are growing now at a steady rate Some countries approach fast the technology frontier Other countries have not been able to follow this convergence process
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