Swine Market Outlook
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1 2018 IOWA PORK REGIONAL CONFERENCES NASHUA, CARROLL, LE MARS, & WASHINGTON, IA FEBRUARY 19-22, 2018 Swine Market Outlook Lee Schulz, Department of Economics, Iowa State University (515) ;
2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu./acre) Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,520 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,352 Imports (mil. bu.) Total Supply (mil. bu.) 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,922 Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,280 5,120 5,467 5,550 5,550 Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,200 5,224 5,439 5,525 5,525 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,401 1,422 1,450 1,470 1,475 Exports (mil. bu.) 1,867 1,898 2,293 2,050 1,900 Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,595 14,450 Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,352 2,472 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) Source: USDA
3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu./acre) Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,360 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) Imports (mil. bu.) Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,915 Crush (mil. bu.) 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,950 1,970 Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) Exports (mil. bu.) 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,100 2,325 Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,188 4,435 Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) Season-Average Price ($/bu.) Source: USDA
4 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
5 Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
6 Source: National Drought Mitigation Center
7 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
8 World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB
9 South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center
10
11 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
12 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
13 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
14 Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
15 Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017
16 Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
17 Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/15/2018
18 Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/15/2018
19 2017/18 Crop Margins
20 2018/19 Crop Margins
21 2013 = +$6.21 [-$25.60 to +$24.57] 2014 = +$61.85 [+$13.15 to +$107.25] 2015 = +$7.93 [-$18.40 to +$26.25] 2016 = -$1.26 [-$35.52 to +$32.92] 2017 = +$11.95 [-$12.68 to +$47.62] 2018 f = +$7.40 [-$17.11 to +$24.11] Jan-Jun 2019 f = -$1.44 [-$14.05 to +$13.05]
22 Historical and Projected Iowa Farrow to Finish Returns (as of 2/16/18) ( Closeout Total Cost Lean Hog Price Net Return Net Return Month Year $/carcass cwt $/carcass cwt $/carcass cwt $/head Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar 2018 f Apr-Jun 2018 f Jul-Sep 2018 f Oct-Dec 2018 f f Jan-Mar 2019 f Apr-Jun 2019 f * Projected using basis adjusted futures prices.
23 On February Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec Source: CME Group
24 Source: CME Group
25 Source: USDA/AMS
26 National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report: Week Ending February 16, 2018 Weekly Summary of prices on a delivered farm to farm basis Source: USDA/AMS
![2013 = +$4.77 [-$14.80 to +$22.07] 2014 = +$39.48 [+$1.](/docs-images/87/95879635/images/27-4.jpg "62 to +$84.64] 2015 = -$14.32 [-$30.32 to +$4.70] 2016 = -$13.")
![10 [-$45.69 to +$17.05] 2017 = +$1.45 [-$30.32 to +$24.](/docs-images/87/95879635/images/27-5.jpg "89] 2018 f = -$11.58 [-$32.49 to +$15.89] Jan-Jul 2019 f = -$7.")
27 2013 = +$4.77 [-$14.80 to +$22.07] 2014 = +$39.48 [+$1.62 to +$84.64] 2015 = -$14.32 [-$30.32 to +$4.70] 2016 = -$13.10 [-$45.69 to +$17.05] 2017 = +$1.45 [-$30.32 to +$24.89] 2018 f = -$11.58 [-$32.49 to +$15.89] Jan-Jul 2019 f = -$7.86 [-$21.82 to +$5.70]
28 Historical and Projected Iowa Wean to Finish Returns (as of 2/16/18) ( Place Market Net LH SEW BE BE LH BE SEW Mo-Yr Mo-Yr Return* FCOG** Price Price* FCOG** Price Price* Jul-Sep 2016 Jan-Mar Oct-Dec 2016 Apr-Jun Jan-Mar 2017 Jul-Sep Apr-Jun 2017 Oct-Dec Jul-Sep 2017 Jan-Mar 2018 f Oct-Dec 2017 Apr-Jun 2018 f Jan-Mar 2018 Jul-Sep 2018 f Apr-Jun 2018 Oct-Dec 2018 f f Jul-Sep 2017 Jan-Mar 2019 f Oct-Dec 2017 Apr-Jun 2019 f *Net return and SEW price is $/head and all other values are $/carcass cwt. ** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain. f Projected using basis adjusted futures prices.
29 Source: USDA/AMS
30 +8.1% ( 15 vs 14) +2.4% ( 16 vs 15) +3.0% ( 17 vs 16) +1.5% ( 18YTD vs 18YTD) Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.
31 Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.
32 Mil. Head DECEMBER 1 MARKET HOGS U.S. Inventory 2000 to 2017 = +27% Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
33 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report United States December 22, as % Pre-Report Pre-Report Actual of 2016 Range Estimate Estimate Inventories on Dec 1 * All hogs and pigs 71,545 73, Kept for breeding 6,110 6, Market 65,435 67, Under 50 pounds 20,887 21, pounds 18,102 18, pounds 13,786 14, pounds and over 12,660 12, Farrowing ** Sep Nov sows farrowed 3,046 3, Dec Feb intentions 2,986 3, Mar May intentions 3,014 3, Sep Nov pigs per litter Sep Nov pig crop * 32,372 33, * 1,000 head, ** 1,000 litters Data Source: USDA-NASS estimates. Urner Barry pre-report estimates.
34 Source: USDA/NASS
35 LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (2/16/18) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC Year Comm l % Chg. Avg Carcass % Chg. Comm l Pork % Chg. Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago 2016 (1,000 hd) (lbs) (mil. Lbs) I 29, , II 28, , III 29, , IV 31, , Year 118, , I 30, , II 29, , III 29, , IV 32, , Year 121, , I 30, , II 30, , III 30, , IV 33, , Year 125, , I 30, , II 30, , III 31, , IV 34, , Year 127, ,
36 Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION By Type of Meat, Annual Beef Pork Lamb & Veal Chicken Turkey Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center M-S-03A 02/07/18
37 Pounds US RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Beef Pork Total Chicken Turkey Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center M-C-01 02/13/18
38 2017: Per Capita Consumption = % (Year over Year) Real Pork Prices = 1.1% IF Real Pork Prices % = 0% Demand Change
39 Mil. Pounds 700 PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center M-S-10 01/24/18
40 Source: USDA/AMS
41 Cents Per Pound 250 WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES Skin-on, Pounds, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center M-P-29 02/12/18
42 $ Per Cwt PORK CUTOUT VALUE (Voluntary data prior to 2013), Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-10 02/12/18
43 Source: USDA/AMS
44 U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Dec 2017 (Carcass Wt Basis) Dec-17/Nov-17 Dec-17/Dec-16 Year-to-Date Country Percent Percent 1,000 lbs Percent Share Japan -18% 5% 15,907 1% 22% Mexico 8% -4% 198,181 12% 32% Canada 0% -4% -5,441-1% 9% South Korea 10% 23% 118,231 29% 9% China (Mainland) -34% -15% -115,838-23% 7% Hong Kong 17% 63% -3,812-3% 3% Australia 28% 41% 20,053 11% 4% Philippines 39% 23% 9,994 13% 2% China (Taiwan) -22% -16% 11,132 58% 1% Colombia -36% -1% 72,162 60% 3% Honduras -25% 18% 4,466 6% 1% Dominican Republic -14% -20% 16,195 22% 2% Chile -53% 36% 27,740 60% 1% Panama 211% 3% -3,001-8% 1% Other Countries -23% 10% 26,781 14% 4% Total -4% 4% 392,751 7% WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs 2017: 5,623 (+7%) 2018: 5,900 (+5%) Source: USDA/ERS
45 U.S. Exports to China Jan-Dec Yr/Yr , ,478-22% ,465-34% ,619-24% ,396 97% ,558-23%
46 InterPIG 2016 Average National Total Costs Euro/Kg hot weight Source: InterPig
47 USDA Long term Pork Projections, February Item Units Beginning stocks Mil. lbs Commercial production Mil. lbs. 24,941 25,740 26,925 27,170 27,307 27,467 27,669 27,926 28,242 28,548 28,832 29,128 Chg from previous yr Percent Farm production Mil. lbs Total production Mil. lbs. 24,957 25,756 26,941 27,186 27,323 27,483 27,685 27,942 28,258 28,564 28,848 29,144 Imports Mil. lbs. 1,091 1,113 1,000 1,032 1,038 1,044 1,051 1,061 1,073 1,085 1,096 1,107 Total supply Mil. lbs. 26,638 27,376 28,571 28,878 29,021 29,192 29,406 29,678 30,016 30,344 30,649 30,966 Exports Mil. lbs. 5,239 5,588 5,900 6,017 6,135 6,252 6,369 6,487 6,604 6,721 6,839 6,956 Ending stocks Mil. lbs Total consumption Mil. lbs. 20,892 21,158 22,011 22,201 22,221 22,270 22,362 22,506 22,717 22,918 23,095 23,285 Per capita, retail weight Pounds Change from previous yr Percent Prices: Hogs, farm $/cwt National base, live equivalent $/cwt National base, lean equivalent $/cwt Feed price ratio: Hog-corn Ratio Hog inventory, December 1, previous yr 1,000 head 68,919 71,525 72,125 72,490 72,695 72,933 73,236 73,619 74,090 74,547 74,971 75,412 Commercial Prod to 2022: +7% 2017 to 2027: +13% Per Capita Consumption 2017 to 2022: +2% 2017 to 2027: +3% Exports 2017 to 2022: +14% 2017 to 2027: +24%
48 Source: Daily Livestock Report
49 Source: Daily Livestock Report
50 Source: Daily Livestock Report
51 Thank You! More information available at: Iowa Farm Outlook & News Ag Decision Maker ISU Estimated Livestock Returns ISU Livestock Crush Margins
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