Partnerships with Purpose: Housing for Texans
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- Barrie Mills
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1 Partnerships with Purpose: Housing for Texans 25th Annual TALHFA Educational Conference October 25-27, 2017 Fort Worth, Texas Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist
2 2
3 Outlook Since November 10, 2017: Rising Optimism... Awaiting Reality
4 Changes Potentially Substantial Fiscal tax reforms: MID, 1031 Exchanges Infrastructure & Defense more government spending: domestic orientation, less foreign Monetary Fed policies, interest rates Regulatory lessen regs & controls on business, housing, banking; Obamacare & Dodd-Frank targets Trade NAFTA, foreign trade agreements Foreign Relations dealings with Europe, Russia, China and rest of the world
5 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Thousands of Jobs, SA Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Employment Six-month moving average ,000 Average of ~197,000 jobs per month since October 2010 Sources: BLS; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
6 Personal Income Y/Y Percent Change, SAAR 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% -200% -400% -600% -800% Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sources: BEA; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
7 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Inflation Remains Relatively Low 6.0% Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y % change in index 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Source: BLS 7
8 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Consumer Confidence Index Harvey hit Texas hard Texas U.S. Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics 8
9 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Overall Index SA 1986 = 100) Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses; based on ten survey indicators
10 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan Year Treasury; Federal Funds & 30- Year FMR Year Mortgage 10 Year Treasury Federal Funds Effective Rate Source: Haver Analytics; FHLMC; St. Louis FED; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 10
11 12/3/15 12/17/15 12/31/15 1/14/16 1/28/16 2/11/16 2/25/16 3/10/16 3/24/16 4/7/16 4/21/16 5/5/16 5/19/16 6/2/16 6/16/16 6/30/16 7/14/16 7/28/16 8/11/16 8/25/16 9/8/16 9/22/16 10/6/16 10/20/16 11/3/16 11/17/16 12/1/16 12/15/16 12/29/16 1/12/17 1/26/17 2/9/17 2/23/17 3/9/17 3/23/17 4/6/17 4/20/17 5/4/17 5/18/17 6/1/17 6/15/17 6/29/17 7/13/17 7/27/17 8/10/17 8/24/17 9/7/17 9/21/17 10/5/17 10/19/17 11/2/17 11/16/17 11/30/17 12/14/17 12/28/17 Weekly 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% , 4.01% , 3.54% , 4.32% Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 11
12 Texas Economy 2017 Recovery Year Doing Very Well 2018: Potentially Great/Difficult Year 12
13 Texas Outlook 2017 much better than 2016: energy, healthcare, business & professional services up; Harvey relatively minor to state National economic expansion most positive factor for 2018 Energy sector downturn impacts mostly over; oil prices stabilizing at $40-$55 Texas job growth picking up, expect ~2.5% or more Population expansion continues Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing greater strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts on local housing Rebound from Harvey will contribute to some misleading economic growth in
14 p Texas and U.S. Economic Growth Annual Percent Change in Real GDP 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% Texas US 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% -0.3% -0.6% -2.8% Sources: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 14
15 p Texas Annual Jobs 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, ,499,600 jobs; average 299,920/year 8,642,700 8,291,400 8,058,700 7,786,100 7,515,100 7,125,700 7,204,600 7,301,200 9,461,200 9,543,900 9,189,400 8,973,700 9,446,400 9,400,700 9,771,800 9,527,700 11,241,200 10,914,400 10,642,400 10,604,200 10,428,200 10,341,100 10,374,500 10,098, % +310, % +326, % +352, % +275, % +158, p +2.5% +300,710 12,329,110 12,028,400 11,869,700 11,593,900 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 15
16 Dallas Fed Job Forecast 2.6 Percent Growth in 2017 Average 28,000 jobs/mo. 1H17 Total 336,000 jobs at average/mo. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, September 15, 2017
17 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Texas Business-Cycle Index January 1987= Average Y/Y rate of increase 4.8% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
18 1/7/2000 3/31/2000 6/23/2000 9/15/ /8/2000 3/2/2001 5/25/2001 8/17/ /9/2001 2/1/2002 4/26/2002 7/19/ /11/2002 1/3/2003 3/28/2003 6/20/2003 9/12/ /5/2003 2/27/2004 5/21/2004 8/13/ /5/2004 1/28/2005 4/22/2005 7/15/ /7/ /30/2005 3/24/2006 6/16/2006 9/8/ /1/2006 2/23/2007 5/18/2007 8/10/ /2/2007 1/25/2008 4/18/2008 7/11/ /3/ /26/2008 3/20/2009 6/12/2009 9/4/ /25/2009 2/19/2010 5/14/2010 8/6/ /29/2010 1/21/2011 4/15/2011 7/8/2011 9/30/ /22/2011 3/16/2012 6/8/2012 8/31/ /21/2012 2/15/2013 5/10/2013 8/2/ /25/2013 1/17/2014 4/11/2014 7/3/2014 9/26/ /19/2014 3/13/2015 6/5/2015 8/28/ /20/2015 2/12/2016 5/6/2016 7/29/ /21/2016 1/13/2017 4/7/2017 6/30/2017 9/22/ /15/2017 Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI 1, Rig Count (left) 11/21/2014, 906 6/27/2014, WTI $/bl. (right) Rig Count up 271, +157% since May /20/2016, 173 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University 18
19 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Average Monthly Price Current and Futures Price of WTI $120 $110 $100 Cushing Spot Price 12-Month Futures 6-Month Futures 2-Year Futures $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Sources: EIA; Haver Analytics 19
20 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Annual Employment Growth Rates Texas Houston Austin Dallas San Antonio Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 20
21 Jan-81 Jul-81 Jan-82 Jul-82 Jan-83 Jul-83 Jan-84 Jul-84 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Business Cycle Indexes: Major Texas Metros Months Seasonally Adjusted, October, 1980= Texas Austin Dallas Fort Worth Houston San Antonio Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
22 Texas Demographics
23 2015 to 2016 Population Change Texas added 432,957 people; now 27,862,596; 217,542 from in-migration: 125,703 Domestic Since ,618,286 (average 436,381/year) DFW added 143,400, now 7.23 million #4 MSA D-P-I MD +97,839, more than any other MSA except Houston Since ,646 (average +130,000/year) Houston added 125,000, now 6.77 million #5 MSA Only two MSAs to add > 100,000 Since ,296 (average +137,382/year) Austin added 58,301; now 2,056,405; #31 MSA edging out Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio Since ,749 (average 54,792/year) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 23
24 Top 10 MSAs Population MSA 2016 Pop Percent Chg Average Pop. / Year New York-Newark 20,153,634 35, % 552,835 92,139 Los Angeles 13,310,447 41, % 467,327 77,888 Chicago 9,512,999-19, % 41,362 6,894 Dallas-FW 7,233, , % 780, ,108 Houston 6,772, , % 824, ,383 Washington 6,131,977 53, % 465,322 77,554 Philadelphia 6,070,500 8, % 98,451 16,409 Miami 6,066,387 64, % 482,003 80,334 Atlanta 5,789,700 90, % 485,771 80,962 Boston 4,794,447 27, % 228,540 38,090 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
25 Texas Population ,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 From 1970 to 2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people an average rate of 349,000 per year 37,155,084 54,369,297 44,955,896 30,541,978 30,000,000 27,469,114 25,145,561 20,000,000 10,000, ,896,542 11,196,730 20,851,820 From 2010 to 2050 (40 years), Texas will add nearly 30 million people an average rate of about 750,000 per year Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections ( Scenario) 25
26 Houston MSA Projected Population Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery & Waller Counties 15,500,000 13,500,000 11,500, % increase since % increase since ,519,566 14,221,267 9,500,000 9,278,789 7,500,000 5,500,000 3,500,000 2,195,147 3,136,206 3,750,846 4,693,161 5,920,416 7,413,214 1,500, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas Demographer s Office 2014 Projections, scenario
27 D-FW MSA Population Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Tarrant & Wise Counties 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000, ,941, % increase 12,728,992 16,367,293 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 3,034,259 2,000,000 6,426,213 7,920,671 9,970,678 ~250,000 people/year or ~685 people/day Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 27
28 Austin MSA Population Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis & Williamson Counties 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500, ,460,651; 202% increase; 86,500/year average 5,176,940 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 3,035,547 3,960,317 2,500,000 2,306,857 2,000,000 1,716,289 1,500,000 1,249,763 1,000, , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 28
29 San Antonio MSA Population Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, & Wilson Counties 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , , % increase 1,154,819 1,711,703 2,635,183 2,384,075 2,142,508 3,182,644 3,735,981 4,294, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 29
30 Projected Legend Population Change, Texas tl_2010_48_county10 Counties, F6-6, ,000 2,001-10,000 10, , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 30
31 Percent of Texas Population by Age Groups: 2010 to % 100% 80% < % 13.1% 16.0% 16.9% 17.4% 24.0% 23.6% 22.3% 22.6% 23.6% 60% 40% 38.4% 37.9% 37.6% 37.1% 36.4% 20% 0% 27.3% 25.4% 24.1% 23.4% 22.7% Sources: Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projections 1.0 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 31
32 2015 Texas Population by Age 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 6,022, % Total 27,429, % ,977,864 3,725,435 3,496,526 In 2015, Texas ranked as the 3 rd youngest state with a median age of 34.4 as well as the 48 th oldest state with 11.7% > 65 years old 11.7% 65+ 2,000,000 1,968,6572,005, % 13.6% 1,631,946 1,419,583 1,928,709 1,000, to 15 years 7.2% 7.3% 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 12.7% 5.9% 5.2% 45 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 7.0% 65 to 74 years 935, % 75 to 84 years 357, % 85 years and over Source: ACS; U.S. Census Bureau 32
33 Number of Texas Households Added Annually 250,000 Average number of households added annually = 126, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 98, , , , , ,468 93,985 79, ,086 68, , , , , , , , , , , ,689 50,000 52,105 44,952 32,833 0 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 33
34 Texas Households 15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 4,929,267 Annual HH Formations: ~165, ~199, ~221, ~243, ~264,000 6,070,937 7,393,354 8,738,664 10,559,509 9,563,946 14,200,400 12,879,003 11,664,810 Source: US Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center and Demographer; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 34
35 Texas Housing Market & Affordability 35
36 Texas Housing Summary 2016 record year for sales (+5%) and prices (+7.6%) 14 of 25 Texas MSAs set records despite short inventories 2017YTD sales +3.3%; Md. Price +7.0%; avg. pr./sf +6.3% Texas leads nation in residential permits since 2008 Residential construction leveling off: 2017 SF +2%; MF -15% Houston and DFW1 & 2 nationally since 2008 for SF permits (despite Houston -21.4% in 2016 and DFW -2.4% ) Austin & San Antonio in top 25 ~315,000 units short since 1994 vs. average Median home price expanded 53% since 2011 RCLI down past 5 months indicating slowdown in construction toward mid-2018
37 Annual Change in Owner-Occupied and Renter Households Source: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey; Mortgage Bankers Association, Chart of the Week June 2, 2017
38 H17 U.S. & Texas Homeownership Rates U.S. Texas Austin Dallas Houston Source: US Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
39 Future Homeownership Demographics Life style/life cycle generational differences: family formations vs. household formations Aging Boomers renting Affordability Income growth & distribution Price, Costs and Supply Constraints Mortgage credit availability, terms and cost SF Investor market
40 YTD Annual Texas Home Sales 350, , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 Sales(left) Avg Price(right) Median Price(right) Since Jan 2011 Average Price up 44% Median Price up 53% 126, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,487 $350,000 $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 $50,000 Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 40
41 Price Range Texas Sales by Price Distribution Percent Distribution $0 - $69, $70,000 - $99, % 47% $100,000 - $149, $150,000 - $199, $200,000 - $249, $250,000 - $299, % $300,000 - $399, % $400,000 - $499, $500,000 - $749, $750,000 - $999, $1,000, Source: TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
42 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Texas Months Inventory Source: TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 42
43 Source: Texas Realtor Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Current Months Inventory of Homes For Sale by Price $0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 +
44 Texas Household Income Distribution Income Cohorts Number of Households Cumulative Households Percent of Total Cumulative Percent Less than $10, , , % 6.5% $10,000 to $14, ,878 1,062, % 11.1% $15,000 to $19, ,937 1,505, % 15.8% $20,000 to $24, ,657 1,999, % 21.0% $25,000 to $29, ,636 2,468, % 25.9% $30,000 to $34, ,096 2,950, % 30.9% $35,000 to $39, ,145 3,381, % 35.5% $40,000 to $44, ,472 3,826, % 40.1% $45,000 to $49, ,993 4,213, % 44.2% $50,000 to $59, ,605 4,979, % 52.2% $60,000 to $74, ,667 5,931, % 62.2% $75,000 to $99,999 1,135,586 7,067, % 74.1% $100,000 to $124, ,591 7,894, % 82.8% $125,000 to $149, ,891 8,392, % 88.0% $150,000 to $199, ,320 8,928, % 93.6% $200,000 or more 607,227 9,535, % 100.0% Median Household Income = $56,565 Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
45 Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price >$750,000 $500,000-$749, % 5.6% % down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities $400,000-$499, % 626 $300,000-$399, % 1,114 $250,000-$299,999 $200,000-$249,999 $175,000-$199, % 6.0% 9.9% Median Income of $56,565 can afford home priced at $185,605; effective 3.28x $150,000-$174,999 $125,000-$149,999 $100,000-$124, % 7.4% 7.0% ~41% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000; ~53% not >$200,000 $70,000-$99, % 877 <$70, % 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
46 Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price >$750,000 $500,000-$749, % 4.7% % down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities $400,000-$499, % 542 $300,000-$399, % 1,060 $250,000-$299,999 $200,000-$249,999 $175,000-$199, % 5.9% 9.7% Median Income of $56,565 can afford home priced at $175,981; effective 3.11x $150,000-$174,999 $125,000-$149,999 $100,000-$124, % 7.1% 7.6% ~43% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000; ~55% not > $200,000 $70,000-$99, % 922 <$70, % 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
47 Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price >$750,000 $500,000-$749, % 4.3% % down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities $400,000-$499, % 520 $300,000-$399, % 1,013 $250,000-$299,999 $200,000-$249,999 $175,000-$199, % 5.8% 9.6% Median Income of $56,565 can afford home priced at $171,534; effective 3.03x $150,000-$174,999 $125,000-$149,999 $100,000-$124, % 7.2% 7.7% ~44% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000; ~56% not > $200,000 $70,000-$99, % 945 <$70, % 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
48 Average Number of Texas Households That Cannot Afford a Home Price Increase of $1,000 Number of Households $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 $90,000 $95,000 $100,000 $105,000 $110,000 $115,000 $120,000 $125,000 $130,000 $135,000 $140,000 $145,000 $150,000 $155,000 $160,000 $165,000 $170,000 $175,000 $180,000 $185,000 $190,000 $195,000 $200,000 $205,000 $210,000 $215,000 $220,000 $225,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities 5,000 0 Home Price Intervals
49 Average Number of Households Unable to Afford a $1,000 Price Increase 20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities Average Number of HH Per $1,000 Price Increase Home Price Intervals $50,000-$100,000 28,449 $100,000-$150,000 27,362 $150,000-$200,000 23,156 $200,000-$250,000 19,213 $250,000-$300,000 16,169 $300,000-$500,000 9,726 $500,000-$750,000 2,130 Average thru $250,000 25,315 Overall Average 21,358 Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
50 YTD Texas SF Building Permits 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 67,870 66, average 95,529/year 103,252 84,565 78,714 67,964 59,143 59,543 43,975 46,209 35,908 36,658 38,233 69,964 70,452 70,421 83,132 82, , , ,782 99, , , , , , ,366 81, % % % 17YTD +8% 81,926 68,170 68,23067, , , ,045 93,478 76,770 20,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 50
51 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Texas Residential Permits (12-MMA) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Single Family 8,000 6,000 4,000 Multi-Family 2,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
52 Texas SF Building Permits per 1,000 New Households ,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, , added 1.33 million HHs. Would have built 1.1 million SF homes at average/year; actually built 776k. About 315,000 units short , ,191 1,550 2, average 820/year 1, Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 52
53 YTD Texas MF Building Permits: Making Up the Difference? 80,000 70,000 60,000 50, average 40,766/year Nationally, ~12.5% are Class B/C 51, % % % 2017YTD -5% 47,271 53,196 46,918 54,145 53,615 66,792 64,135 55,633 40,000 30,000 30,165 31,281 32,521 40,245 40,715 28,381 33,958 35,791 37,537 38,671 33,036 30,729 26,352 20,000 13,879 15,837 19,741 10,000 8,273 9,304 8,291 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 53
54 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes Jan 2000= Coincident Index Total Housing Permits (12-MMA) Leading Index Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 54
55 Texas & US Housing Affordability Indexes Texas is fast losing it s competitive housing advantage TEXAS US Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
56 Texas Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to Median home prices 3.1x; HH Income 1.16x Median Home Price Nominal HH Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
57 Texas Affordability Decline Since 1990 Texas Median HH Income Index/Median Home Price Index (1990=100.0) Rate of change in home prices 2x rate of change in income; affordability down one-third Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
58 Affordability Demand Side Income growth relative to home prices*** Mortgage availability Underwriting and risk rating: ease of credit & terms Interest rates Effective buyer education and understanding Supply Side Land & land development costs Construction Costs: labor & materials Rent growth Federal, state and local planning and land use regulatory effects: constrained supply & costs
59 Affordability Solutions and Approaches Design & Construction: size, style, attacheddetached, assembly-line ultimately, cost per s.f. Local Planning & Development efforts and zoning codes: density; inclusionary; urban-suburban locations; planning & zoning to standards and conditions and results rather than exclusions Smarter growth and development regulations, not smart growth Financing plans targeted to low- and moderateincome, first-time buyers private vs. government-backed
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