Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
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1 ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant Chief Economist) (416) paul.ferley@rbc.com
2 U.S. Economic Outlook: Accommodative monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy are expected to keep U.S. growth at an above-average pace though at a time when the economy is likely close to capacity ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 2
3 Growth has been maintained at an above-potential pace over the past year with no indication of any near-term slowing U.S real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change 10 Annual Growth Rates 8 Real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change Year-over-year % change Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, RBC Economics Research Forecasted Values: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 3
4 Job growth remains surprisingly strong though future gains will be more difficult to achieve as the economy approaches capacity U.S. payroll employment growth Change from previous month (Thous.) 'Steady State?' Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 4
5 Very stimulative fiscal policy along with accommodative monetary conditions are expected to keep overall growth this year and next above average 10 U.S. real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 5
6 The persistence of above-average GDP growth will put further modest downward pressure on the unemployment rate at a time when it is already at historically low levels 11 Unemployment rate: U.S. % 10 9 Forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 6
7 This tightening in labour markets are expected to put even greater upward pressure on wage inflation 4.0 U.S. average hourly earnings % Change, year-over-year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 7
8 Strengthening growth and tightening labour markets have contributed, and are expected to continue to contribute, to the Fed tightening monetary policy 7 Fed Funds Rate % 6 Forecast Source: Federal Reserve Board, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 8
9 Sustained tightening by the Fed will put continued upward pressure on 10-year bond yields year bond yield: U.S. % Forecast Source: Reuters, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 9
10 Canadian Economic Outlook: A modest recovery in oil prices, highly accommodative monetary policy and strengthening U.S. growth have moved the Canadian economy close to capacity though increased U.S. trade protectionism presents a downside risk to the outlook ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 10
11 Our forecast assumes that oil prices on a WTI basis will resume a slight upward trend through the forecast. However, rising domestic production will result in WCS oil prices rising more modestly Oil prices: WTI and WCS $US/bbl Western Canadian Select (WCS) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Forecast Annual average 20 WTI WCS 2015 $49 $ $43 $ $51 $ f $63 $ f $65 $ Source: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 11
12 Growth was restrained in both 2015 and 2016 by weak oil prices though that restraint has started to reverse through In fact this stronger growth over the past year has pushed the economy to its capacity limit Canada's real GDP % change Quarter-over-quarter, annualized rate Year-over-year Real GDP Annual Growth Rates Forecast: Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 12
13 The drop in oil prices had weighed on GDP growth through declining investment in 2015 and 2016 though the recent recovery in these prices returned business investment to positive growth in 2017 that is expected to be sustained through the forecast Non-residential investment in Canada Year-over-year % change GDP (YoY) Forecast Non-residential Annual Growth Rates f f 2.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 13
14 Growth in business investment is expected to reflect modest gains both within and outside of the oil and gas sector both this year and next Canada Business Investment by Industry Percentage point contribution to annual GDP growth Forecast Ex o&g investment Oil & gas investment Total business capital spending Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 14
15 Export growth has been gradually trending higher albeit around a very volatile quarterly pattern 128 Real merchandise trade: Canada Billion constant 2007 $ Exports Imports Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 15
16 Going forward export growth is expected to benefit from a still weak Canadian dollar and strengthening U.S. growth though with trade protectionism presenting a clear downside risk 15 Canadian Exports and GDP Year-over-year % change 10 Forecast 5 GDP (YoY) Exports Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 16
17 In terms of household spending, still accommodative monetary policy is supporting interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy though poor affordability and tightening mortgage lending standards have recently started to weigh on housing 600 Canada: Housing Resales Thousands of Units, saar 2.2 Auto sales in Canada (Millions) Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 17
18 This spending has resulted in both household debt levels and debt servicing costs (including principal repayments) remaining high Household debt-to-income ratio Debt service ratio - Canada Credit market debt as a % of personal disposable income Debt service payments on mortgage and non-mortgage debt as % of PDI, seasonally adjusted Principal Interest Statistics Canada's published figure Comparable figure to U.S. United States Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 18
19 We are assuming that these balance sheet constraints in the face of rising interest rates will lower consumer spending growth through the forecast from the unsustainably strong gain in Consumer expenditures in Canada Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized 8 6 Forecast GDP(YoY) Consumer Spending Annual Growth Rates f 2019f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economic Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 19
20 Low interest rates have been keeping housing activity stronger than expected though recent Bank of Canada rate hikes along with the recent tightening in mortgage lending standards are expected to slow new residential construction over the forecast 250 Housing starts: Canada Thousands of units Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 20
21 Strength in housing prices has been particularly apparent in Toronto and Vancouver with an attendant marked deterioration in housing affordability. Recent housing policy changes have only contributed to a temporary correction in the Vancouver market though rising interest rates are expected to contribute to more of a sustained move lower. 100 RBC Housing Affordability Measure - aggregate Ownership costs as % of median household income 80 Vancouver 60 Toronto 40 Canada Source:Brookfield RPS, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 21
22 Residential investment is expected to trend lower through the forecast as rising lending costs, a tightening in lending standards and poor affordability weigh on activity on a more sustained basis 30 Residential investment in Canada Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate 20 Forecast Residential Annual Growth Rates f f -2.0 GDP (QoQ) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 22
23 Expansionary fiscal policy federally is expected to result in modestly higher government spending through the forecast 6 Government Spending and GDP Year-over-year % change 4 Forecast Government Spending Annual Growth Rates f f 2.2 GDP (YoY) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 23
24 The reversal of declining energy investment will support growth though continued tightening in monetary policy will limit the pace of activity this year and next 8 Canada's real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 24
25 Growth close to economy s long-run average will stabilize the unemployment rate at current levels 9.0 Unemployment rate: Canada % 8.5 Forecast Unemployment rate Annual Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 25
26 Well- anchored inflationary expectations are expected to keep core inflation close to the Bank of Canada s 2% target though headline inflation will be buffeted by recent oil price increases CPI inflation: Canada % change, year-over-year Inflation Target 2% Forecast Core* Headline Annual Rate f f *CPI excluding Food and Energy Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 26
27 Recent strong growth is expected to prompt the Bank of Canada to continue tightening gradually following the hike in January with another 100 basis points of tightening expected by mid Bank of Canada overnight rate % Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 27
28 Further tightening by the Bank of Canada along with the U.S. central bank, will put sustained upward pressure on bond yields year bond yield: Canada % 5.0 Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 28
29 As the Bank of Canada resumes tightening it will reverse recent weakness though any gains will be tempered by our expectation that the Fed will continue to hike through 2018 and 2019 as well Canadian dollar forecast 1.1 US$/C$ 1.0 Parity Forecast End of period 0.7 US$/C$ f f Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economic Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 29
30 Provincial Economic Outlook: Rising oil prices provide a boost to the oilproducing provinces. However, it implies higher energy costs for the remaining provinces though this should be more than offset by a strengthening U.S. economy assuming no major trade restrictions emerge. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 30
31 Rising oil prices are expected to support growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan with Ontario and British Columbia benefitting more from a strengthening U.S. economy Provincial real GDP growth Annual % change, ranked by 2018 growth SASK. B.C. ALTA. ONT. MAN. CANADA QUE. P.E.I N.S. N.B f 2019f N.& L Sources: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 31
32 Please visit our website: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 32
33 Disclaimer The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 33
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