Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits"

Transcription

1 ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant Chief Economist) (416) paul.ferley@rbc.com

2 U.S. Economic Outlook: Accommodative monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy are expected to keep U.S. growth at an above-average pace though at a time when the economy is likely close to capacity ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 2

3 Growth has been maintained at an above-potential pace over the past year with no indication of any near-term slowing U.S real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change 10 Annual Growth Rates 8 Real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change Year-over-year % change Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, RBC Economics Research Forecasted Values: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 3

4 Job growth remains surprisingly strong though future gains will be more difficult to achieve as the economy approaches capacity U.S. payroll employment growth Change from previous month (Thous.) 'Steady State?' Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 4

5 Very stimulative fiscal policy along with accommodative monetary conditions are expected to keep overall growth this year and next above average 10 U.S. real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 5

6 The persistence of above-average GDP growth will put further modest downward pressure on the unemployment rate at a time when it is already at historically low levels 11 Unemployment rate: U.S. % 10 9 Forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 6

7 This tightening in labour markets are expected to put even greater upward pressure on wage inflation 4.0 U.S. average hourly earnings % Change, year-over-year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 7

8 Strengthening growth and tightening labour markets have contributed, and are expected to continue to contribute, to the Fed tightening monetary policy 7 Fed Funds Rate % 6 Forecast Source: Federal Reserve Board, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 8

9 Sustained tightening by the Fed will put continued upward pressure on 10-year bond yields year bond yield: U.S. % Forecast Source: Reuters, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 9

10 Canadian Economic Outlook: A modest recovery in oil prices, highly accommodative monetary policy and strengthening U.S. growth have moved the Canadian economy close to capacity though increased U.S. trade protectionism presents a downside risk to the outlook ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 10

11 Our forecast assumes that oil prices on a WTI basis will resume a slight upward trend through the forecast. However, rising domestic production will result in WCS oil prices rising more modestly Oil prices: WTI and WCS $US/bbl Western Canadian Select (WCS) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Forecast Annual average 20 WTI WCS 2015 $49 $ $43 $ $51 $ f $63 $ f $65 $ Source: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 11

12 Growth was restrained in both 2015 and 2016 by weak oil prices though that restraint has started to reverse through In fact this stronger growth over the past year has pushed the economy to its capacity limit Canada's real GDP % change Quarter-over-quarter, annualized rate Year-over-year Real GDP Annual Growth Rates Forecast: Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 12

13 The drop in oil prices had weighed on GDP growth through declining investment in 2015 and 2016 though the recent recovery in these prices returned business investment to positive growth in 2017 that is expected to be sustained through the forecast Non-residential investment in Canada Year-over-year % change GDP (YoY) Forecast Non-residential Annual Growth Rates f f 2.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 13

14 Growth in business investment is expected to reflect modest gains both within and outside of the oil and gas sector both this year and next Canada Business Investment by Industry Percentage point contribution to annual GDP growth Forecast Ex o&g investment Oil & gas investment Total business capital spending Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 14

15 Export growth has been gradually trending higher albeit around a very volatile quarterly pattern 128 Real merchandise trade: Canada Billion constant 2007 $ Exports Imports Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 15

16 Going forward export growth is expected to benefit from a still weak Canadian dollar and strengthening U.S. growth though with trade protectionism presenting a clear downside risk 15 Canadian Exports and GDP Year-over-year % change 10 Forecast 5 GDP (YoY) Exports Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 16

17 In terms of household spending, still accommodative monetary policy is supporting interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy though poor affordability and tightening mortgage lending standards have recently started to weigh on housing 600 Canada: Housing Resales Thousands of Units, saar 2.2 Auto sales in Canada (Millions) Source: CREA, RBC Economics Research Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 17

18 This spending has resulted in both household debt levels and debt servicing costs (including principal repayments) remaining high Household debt-to-income ratio Debt service ratio - Canada Credit market debt as a % of personal disposable income Debt service payments on mortgage and non-mortgage debt as % of PDI, seasonally adjusted Principal Interest Statistics Canada's published figure Comparable figure to U.S. United States Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 18

19 We are assuming that these balance sheet constraints in the face of rising interest rates will lower consumer spending growth through the forecast from the unsustainably strong gain in Consumer expenditures in Canada Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized 8 6 Forecast GDP(YoY) Consumer Spending Annual Growth Rates f 2019f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economic Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 19

20 Low interest rates have been keeping housing activity stronger than expected though recent Bank of Canada rate hikes along with the recent tightening in mortgage lending standards are expected to slow new residential construction over the forecast 250 Housing starts: Canada Thousands of units Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 20

21 Strength in housing prices has been particularly apparent in Toronto and Vancouver with an attendant marked deterioration in housing affordability. Recent housing policy changes have only contributed to a temporary correction in the Vancouver market though rising interest rates are expected to contribute to more of a sustained move lower. 100 RBC Housing Affordability Measure - aggregate Ownership costs as % of median household income 80 Vancouver 60 Toronto 40 Canada Source:Brookfield RPS, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 21

22 Residential investment is expected to trend lower through the forecast as rising lending costs, a tightening in lending standards and poor affordability weigh on activity on a more sustained basis 30 Residential investment in Canada Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate 20 Forecast Residential Annual Growth Rates f f -2.0 GDP (QoQ) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 22

23 Expansionary fiscal policy federally is expected to result in modestly higher government spending through the forecast 6 Government Spending and GDP Year-over-year % change 4 Forecast Government Spending Annual Growth Rates f f 2.2 GDP (YoY) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 23

24 The reversal of declining energy investment will support growth though continued tightening in monetary policy will limit the pace of activity this year and next 8 Canada's real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate Real GDP Annual Growth Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Forecast: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 24

25 Growth close to economy s long-run average will stabilize the unemployment rate at current levels 9.0 Unemployment rate: Canada % 8.5 Forecast Unemployment rate Annual Rates f f Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 25

26 Well- anchored inflationary expectations are expected to keep core inflation close to the Bank of Canada s 2% target though headline inflation will be buffeted by recent oil price increases CPI inflation: Canada % change, year-over-year Inflation Target 2% Forecast Core* Headline Annual Rate f f *CPI excluding Food and Energy Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 26

27 Recent strong growth is expected to prompt the Bank of Canada to continue tightening gradually following the hike in January with another 100 basis points of tightening expected by mid Bank of Canada overnight rate % Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 27

28 Further tightening by the Bank of Canada along with the U.S. central bank, will put sustained upward pressure on bond yields year bond yield: Canada % 5.0 Forecast Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 28

29 As the Bank of Canada resumes tightening it will reverse recent weakness though any gains will be tempered by our expectation that the Fed will continue to hike through 2018 and 2019 as well Canadian dollar forecast 1.1 US$/C$ 1.0 Parity Forecast End of period 0.7 US$/C$ f f Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economic Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 29

30 Provincial Economic Outlook: Rising oil prices provide a boost to the oilproducing provinces. However, it implies higher energy costs for the remaining provinces though this should be more than offset by a strengthening U.S. economy assuming no major trade restrictions emerge. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 30

31 Rising oil prices are expected to support growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan with Ontario and British Columbia benefitting more from a strengthening U.S. economy Provincial real GDP growth Annual % change, ranked by 2018 growth SASK. B.C. ALTA. ONT. MAN. CANADA QUE. P.E.I N.S. N.B f 2019f N.& L Sources: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 31

32 Please visit our website: ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 32

33 Disclaimer The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH 33

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

Canadian Housing In Flux

Canadian Housing In Flux Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist Dominion Lending Centres The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Canadian Housing In Flux Today s date Location of presentation March

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth

More information

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District

More information

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)

More information

Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future

Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and

More information

PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION

PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2018 THE SASKATCHEWAN DIFFERENCE Economic Stability Diversified economy balances cyclicality of resources Growing population Majority government with

More information

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference 32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference Economic Intelligence September 21 st, 2017 Toronto Peter Norman, VP & Chief Economist, Economic Consulting Our Company Structure at a Glance ARGUS

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

UDI Capital Region: Growth & Change

UDI Capital Region: Growth & Change UDI Capital Region: Growth & REAL ESTATE thoughtful Andrew Ramlo, VP, Market Intelligence Rennie Group Today's Roadmap: - Current Market Stats - The Drivers To - To 2021 & Beyond Current Market stats ALL

More information

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence

The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com Ryan Berlin, Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com Demographic 2016 The People Growth & Change 100

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon

The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition

More information

The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist

The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist silver@naaa.com Agenda Economic conditions Economic outlook Light vehicle sales Light vehicle sales outlook NAAA 2015 Annual

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2019 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK How Much Longer Can the Second Longest Economic Expansion on Record Last? Craig Dismuke Chief Economist cdismuke@viningsparks.com Dudley Carter Economist dcarter@viningsparks.com

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?

Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Kan Chen Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus According to our

More information

East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference

East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP

More information

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,

More information

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and

More information

It Was Never Going To Be Easy

It Was Never Going To Be Easy It Was Never Going To Be Easy Stephen Toplis, Head of Research July 2010 Introduction Global power shift sustained Average outlook on the improve Fiscal constraints binding Domestic rebalance under way

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? 2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update. Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak

More information

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw

More information

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics. Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs

More information

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.

More information

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry REGIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry Kevin L. Kliesen Business Economist and Research Officer September 7, 2017 1 Disclaimer The views we will express today

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman Forecast evaluation report 2017 Robert Chote Chairman Background to the FER The FER is an annual report looking at the performance of past EFO forecasts against the latest outturn data Rationale Accountability

More information

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about

More information

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

More information

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist U.S Cement Outlook IEEE Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist 1 Construction Activity Billion Real $ 1,400 1,200 1,000 2014 = 2.5% 2015 = 5.6% 800 600 400 200 0 12 Year Peak-to- Peak Recovery 1998 2000

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference

More information

Economic and Real Estate Outlook

Economic and Real Estate Outlook Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993

More information

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to

More information

Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish?

Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Keynote Address Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

More information

Vermont Economic Conference:

Vermont Economic Conference: Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.

More information

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005

More information

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP

More information

An Agricultural Update

An Agricultural Update An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative

More information

Global trade: how does it look?

Global trade: how does it look? Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September

More information

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS. Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, ,

US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS. Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, , IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? September 2014 ihs.com Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, +1 781 301 9014, paul.edelstein@ihs.com The US economy

More information

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 US Light Vehicle Outlook George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 External Shocks to The Global Auto Industry - A Critical Timeline Sub-Prime Crisis Bear Sterns Oil Hits

More information

RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market

RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market RISI Housing Report An Update on the Housing Market North American Conference October 2018 Jennifer Coskren Senior Economist Agenda Current housing demand and demographic conditions Supply and impediments

More information

Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin

Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin POWERPOINT PARTNER The US Economy today, with a close look at jobs

More information

Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By:

Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By: Real Estate: Investing for the Future Sponsored By: Percent Change, Year Ago 6 5 4 3 2 1 Real GDP Growth United States, 2000 Prices 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 U.S. Employment

More information

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment

More information

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions

More information

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard

More information

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Golf Industry Performance Worldwide 1.1. Overview 1.2. Global Golf Equipment Demand and Economy 2. The US Golf Industry Overview 2.1. Industry Segmentation 3. Industry Performance

More information

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as

More information

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around

More information