Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By:

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By:"

Emerald Richardson
5 years ago
Views:

2 Real Estate: Investing for the Future Sponsored By:

3 Percent Change, Year Ago Real GDP Growth United States, 2000 Prices

4 U.S. Employment Picture Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment Rate - L Civilian Employment - R Percent Change, Year Ago

5 Percent Civilian Unemployment Rate United States

6 Index 1985= Consumer Confidence Index Conference Board

7 Real Consumer Spending United States Percent Change, Year Ago

8 US$/Troy Ounce 500 Gold Prices Spot Price

9 US$/bbl Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price

10 Industrial Production Industrial Production Index, FRB Percent Change, Year Ago

11 Corporate Profits Profits Before Tax (without IVA and CCAdj.) Percent Change, Year Ago

12 Percent Change, Year Ago Unit Labor Costs Business Sector, United States

13 Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate and 10-year Government Bond Percent Fed Funds Rate 10-year Government Bond

14 Historical Yield Curve 10-year Government Bond minus Fed Funds Rate Percent

15 Rate Mortgage Rates United States 30-year Fixed 15-year Fixed 1-year ARM

16 Percent 7 1-Month LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate

17 Millions Single-Family Housing Starts United States

18 Thousands 400 Multi-Family Housing Starts United States

19 Existing Single-Family Home Sales United States Millions

20 Existing Median Home Price Single-Family Homes, United States US$ Thousands 200 Home Price - L % Change, Year Ago - R 180 Percent Change, Year Ago

21 Existing Median Home Price Ranked by 10-year Growth, Home Price, (US$, Thous.) 10-year Rank Metropolitan Area 1994Q4 2004Q4 Growth 1 San Diego CA $172 $ % 2 Orange County CA $216 $ % 3 Fort Lauderdale FL $102 $ % 4 Sarasota-Bradenton FL $98 $ % 5 Miami FL $104 $ % 6 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton FL $120 $ % 7 Barnstable-Yarmouth MA $107 $ % 8 Sacramento CA $123 $ % 9 Merced CA $96 $ % 10 Portland ME $83 $ %

22 Existing Median Home Price Ranked by 5-year Growth, Home Price, (US$, Thous.) 5-year Rank Metropolitan Area 1999Q4 2004Q4 Growth 1 Sacramento CA $135 $ % 2 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton FL $134 $ % 3 Riverside-San Bernardino CA $132 $ % 4 Merced CA $111 $ % 5 San Diego CA $242 $ % 6 Fresno CA $119 $ % 7 Los Angeles-Long Beach CA $201 $ % 8 Bakersfield CA $105 $ % 9 Portland ME $103 $ % 10 Orange County CA $289 $ %

23 Existing Median Home Price Ranked by 1-year Growth, Home Price, (US$, Thous.) 1-year Rank Metropolitan Area 2003Q4 2004Q4 Growth 1 Las Vegas NV-AZ $194 $ % 2 Riverside-San Bernardino CA $241 $ % 3 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton FL $256 $ % 4 Sacramento CA $265 $ % 5 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay FL $136 $ % 6 Bakersfield CA $189 $ % 7 Merced CA $212 $ % 8 Ocala FL $91 $ % 9 Washington DC-MD-VA-WV $296 $ % 10 Fort Myers-Cape Coral FL $162 $ %

24 Existing Median Home Price Most Expensive Metros, Ranked by 2004 Price Home Price, (US$, Thous.) 10-year Rank Metropolitan Area 1994Q4 2004Q4 Growth 1 San Francisco CA $253 $ % 2 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA $238 $ % 3 San Jose CA $251 $ % 4 Orange County CA $216 $ % 5 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc CA $210 $ % 6 San Diego CA $172 $ % 7 Salinas CA $215 $ % 8 Honolulu HI $355 $493 39% 9 Santa Rosa CA $199 $ % 10 Ventura CA $186 $ %

25 Home Prices Rising Faster Than Income United States Percent Change, Year Ago 14 Home Prices - L Personal Income - R

26 Percent House Price to Income Ratio United States Percent of Disposable Income 13.5 House Price to Per Capita Income Ratio - L Household Debt as % of Disp. Income - R

27 Home Prices Rise Faster than Inflation Existing Median Home Price vs. Core CPI Percent Change, Year Ago 12 Home Prices Core CPI

28 Base= Housing Affordability Index 1975-Present, United States

29 Base= Housing Affordability Index 1995-Present, United States

30 Percent Change, Year Ago 60 U.S. Apartment Market Construction Completions

31 Rate U.S. Apartment Market Absorption Activity Percent Change, Year Ago 15 Absorption Rate - L Percent Change, Year Ago - R

32 Real Estate Investment Trusts Sector Net Acquisition of Financial Assets US$ Billions

33 Percent Vacant U.S. Vacancy Rates Industrial vs. Office Space Industrial Space Office Space

34 Percent Vacant 20 U.S. Vacancy Rates Office Space Markets Downtown Metropolitan Suburban

35 Construction Put in Place Total Private vs. Residential, United States Percent Change, SAAR Total Residential

36 Construction Put in Place Total Private vs. Non-Residential, United States Percent Change, SAAR Total Non-Residential

37 Millions Travel & Tourism Industry Employment Percent Change, Year Ago 6 Employment Level - L % Change, Year Ago - R

38 Travel Expenditures Resident and International Travel for United States Percent Change, Year Ago U.S. Resident Travel International Travel

39 Euros Per Dollar 1.20 The Tumbling Dollar Euros Per Dollar

40 Percent 92 Hotel Occupancy Rate Las Vegas

41 Cost of Renting Significantly Lower in Some Markets City Cost of Renting *Cost of Owning San Francisco $1,780 $3,010 Los Angeles $1,430 $2,159 Wash. D.C. $1,155 $1,700 Las Vegas $780 $1,290 Miami $1,000 $1,362 Chicago $1,030 $1,111 Atlanta $795 $722 Dallas $785 $630 *Assuming 20% Down Payment and 5% Interest-Only ARM

42 Rents Going Down in Most Markets Percent Growth Rent Growth, Percent Market Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Philadelphia San Francisco Southern CA Wash. D.C NATION

43 Most Overvalued Markets Percent Over Fair Value Metro Area Percent Chico, CA 43% Stockton, CA 34% Santa Barbara, CA 34% Los Angeles, CA 32% San Francisco, CA 30% Modesto, CA 30% San Diego, CA 28% W.Palm, FL 26% Sacramento, CA 25% Las Vegas, NV 24%

44 Most Undervalued Markets Percent Under Fair Value Metro Area Percent Salt Lake City, UT -23% Memphis, TN -20% Macon, GA -17% Little Rock, AR -16% Beaumont, TX -16% Syracuse, NY -16% Albuquerque, NM -14% New Orleans, LA -14% Baton Rouge, LA -14% Oklahoma City, OK -13%

45 A New Product Revolution What Kind of Loans are Available? Fixed-Rate Mortgages available for 30, 25, 20, 15 and 10 years Balloon Loans Adjustable Rate Mortgages available for 1, 3, 5, and 7 year 5/1 Interest Only ARM Combined (Hibrid) Loans Mortgage Programs Conventional Loans (Conforming/Nonconforming) Interest Only Loans Low Downpayment Loans Zero Down - 100% Financing Credit Flex Subprime Loans Government Loans FHA Loans VA Loans Rural Housing Service Loans (RHS)

46 Watch the discussion again or share it. Order this session and many more on DVD! Please visit the DVD Center in the Executive Center to order copies for you and your associates. Special discount for attendees only for the duration of the event.

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)