8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% Remaining Available for All Other General Fund 24.80% Medicaid 17.85% Corrections 8.

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Dennis Russell
5 years ago
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1 When did the Great Recession Become the LEAST Interesting Story? 8.00% Employment Recovery 6.00% 4.00% History Forecast % -6.00% Percent Change Wage and Salary Employment 30 Year Average Source: CBEF state macroeconomic model The Real Story: The Problem is Structural Remaining Available for All Other General Fund 24.80% Medicaid and K-12 Crowding Out Other Spending $7.443M Remaining Available for All Other General Fund 10.01% - $13.858M K-12 State Share 45.44% Medicaid 27.21% K-12 State Share 53.08% Medicaid 17.85% Corrections 8.75% Education Categorical s 3.15% Corrections 7.29% Education Categorical s 2.40% Revenues will Grow, but They are All Committed And What Remains will Buy Less 180% Share of Incremental Annual Revenue that will be Consumed by Incremental Growth in K- 12, Medicaid, and Corrections $2,000,000,000 General Fund Revenue Available for "All Other" and Share of General Fund Revenues Available for "All Other" Constant Dollars 30% 160% 140% % $1,800,000,000 $1,600,000,000 25% 120% 100% 80% 68.69% 85.96% 94.70% % % % % % % % % % Dollars $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000 20% 15% Share Remaining 60% $600,000,000 10% 40% $400,000,000 5% 20% $200,000,000 0% $ Dollars left for General Fund Other Share of Constant Dollar Revenue Remaining for General Fund Other 0% 1

2 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 An Illustration of the Impact 2008 and Projected Per Capita General Fund Spending by General Fund Department $ $ $61.43 $61.62 Stated in Constant Dollars $61.46 $47.81 Diagnosis: What is Happening? Structural and demographic changes affect revenue Medicaid growing at 1.7 times revenue Demographics Inflation System of funding K-12 failing the State Leakage in local property tax Corrections spending is the good news $40 $20 $24.70 $14.88 $5.98 $19.22 $- Higher Education Human Services Judicial Public Safety All Other 2008 Level of Per Capita Expenditures Stated in Dollars Projected Real Per Capita Expenditures in Constant Dollars Colorado is Aging Aging Affects Spending 45 to % 65 to % 0 to % 65 to % 0 to % 25 to % 45 to % 25 to % Source: Colorado Demographer s Office Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey, BLS The Economy is Changing Colorado s Revenue System is Slightly Less Productive than the Nation 1.20% Percent Increase in Revenue Source that Results from a 1% Increase in Personal Income 1.02% 1.05% 0.80% 0.87% 0.60% 0.70% 0.40% 0.20% Individual Income Tax Colorado ( ) 50 States ( ) Sales and Use Tax Source: Moody s Economy.com 2

But More Volatile 3.50% Percent Increase in the Rate of Growth in the Revenue Source that Results from a 1% Change in the Rate of Growth of Personal Income 2 15.

03% Individual Income Tax Sales and Use Tax Selective Excise Taxes (1992 2009) 50 States Colorado (1992 2009) -5.00% -1-15.

3 But More Volatile 3.50% Percent Increase in the Rate of Growth in the Revenue Source that Results from a 1% Change in the Rate of Growth of Personal Income % GF + SEF Revenue will Recover but Trend Below Long Term Average History 3.00% 3.06% 1 Forecast 2.50% 2.71% 5.00% 1.50% 0.50% 1.82% 1.24% 0.03% Individual Income Tax Sales and Use Tax Selective Excise Taxes ( ) 50 States Colorado ( ) -5.00% % Growth Rate Average While Expenditures for Medicaid and K- 12 will Mount Baby Boomers in Retirement will Impact Medicaid 9.00% Compound Average Growth Rates: FY % 7.00% 8.35% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 6.16% 4.90% 3.00% 3.43% K-12 State Share Corrections Medicaid Revenue Source: Colorado Demographer s Office Aged Caseload Growth to Almost Double And Aged Care Represents Disproportional Share of Cost (FY 10 Data) 3

4 As a Result, Aged Caseloads will Become Larger Share of Cost 8 Aged vs. All Other Medicaid Caseloads $4,000,000,000 Will Translate into Cost Pressure in Medicaid Program Contributions to Future Medicaid Premiums by Caseload 7 $3,500,000, % 55.73% $3,000,000,000 $2,500,000, % $2,000,000, % $1,500,000,000 2 $1,000,000,000 1 $500,000,000 Caseload 65+ FY 12 FY 25 All Other Medicaid $ Caseload 65+ Caseload Disabled 60 to 64 Caseload Disabled 59 and Under Caseload Eligible Low Income Adults Caseload Expansion Adults (PPA) Caseload Eligible Children Caseload Foster Care Caseload Baby Care Adults Caseload Non-Citizens Caseload Partial Dual Eligibles K-12 State Share: The Problem Illustrated The Problem is not Lack of Assessed Value Leakage will Continue, Even with Levy Freeze And State Share will Continue to Grow 7 Forecast State Share with Levy Freeze % 66.00% 64.00% % FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY

5 Corrections: Fast Grower in the Past But Cost Pressures Expected to Continue to Ease So, What Can be Done? Reform school finance Address Medicaid Find alternative funding for Transportation and Capital Budget rules and stabilization fund Revenue options aimed at productivity and flexibility Thank You In addition to the direct support from the University of Denver, the following foundations supported this work Boettcher Foundation Bonfils-Stanton Foundation Colorado Health Foundation Colorado Trust El Pomar Foundation Gates Family Foundation Kaiser Permanente Piton Foundation Rose Community Foundation 5

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