Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook

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1 Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook August 9, 2018 Missouri Farm Bureau Commodity Conference Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences

2 Cattle Outlook: Can Demand Save the Day? Since 2016: Supply pressure Economics and weather pointed to beef cow expansion Other meat supplies have followed suit Prices resilient thus far 2017 a rare year with supplies and prices up High-quality beef is still a growth market in 2018 Changes coming? Cow herd expansion slowing or coming to an end? Domestic demand at a new level? Trade concerns?

3 Hog Outlook: Looks Like a Rough Ride Ahead We know 2 major problems on supply/demand balance Production: faster growth than population 13 of 14 quarters Exports: have helped offset production growth until now? Cold Storage: pork stocks have surpassed year ago lately Domestic demand strength has performed well Good meat demand has moderated price pain Demand for pork products has been mixed Feed prices may moderate cost increases

4 Billion Pounds Meat Production Beef Pork Chicken (p)

5 Pounds per Person More Meat for U.S. Consumers Still to Come Domestic Meat Availability

6 Percent Change vs. Year Ago Beef Availability per U.S. Resident fed steer price change: AVG MAX MIN 11 years with <-1% Q change 7.0% 24.7% -10.3% 9 years with -1 to 1% Q change 1.4% 7.8% - 4.2% 6 years with >1% Q change -5.7% 6.6% -18.4% (p)

7 Pounds (retail weight) Pork Availability per U.S. Resident hog prices: AVG MAX MIN 8 years with <49 lbs years with lbs years with >51 lbs (p)

8 Weather Had Cooperated in Growing the Beef Cow Herd

9 Weather Had Cooperated in Growing the Cow Herd, But Conditions Deteriorating

10 Percent US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-30 08/06/18

11 Percent 5 0 SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-33 08/06/18

12 35 Percent CORNBELT REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-34 08/06/18

13 Million Head Cumulative Missouri Feeder Cattle Sales

14 Thou. Head BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-S-34 08/06/18

15 Dollars per Ton Hay Prices U.S. Missouri

16 Million Head Beef Cow Growth Grinding to a Halt? (p)

17 Million Head Cattle on Feed, Capacity Lots JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC avg. 2018

18 Million Head U.S. Hog Breeding Herd Inventory

19 Breeding Herd Growth by State Other states combined Pennsylvania Ohio Oklahoma Nebraska Iowa Texas N. Carolina S. Dakota Missouri Illinois Thousand Head, June 2018 vs. June 2014

20 Thou. Head BARROW AND GILT SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-13 08/06/18

21 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-16 08/06/18

22 1000 MT TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 7/9/16 1/7/17 7/8/17 1/6/18 7/7/18 Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 07/26/18

23 Mil. Pounds US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-30 08/06/18

24 1000 MT TOTAL US EXPORTS OF PORK MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Data Source: USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 07/26/18

25 Selected Retail Meat Prices Chicken breast, boneless Chicken legs, bone-in Ham, boneless Pork chops Bacon, sliced Sirloin steak Round steak Beef for stew Round roast Chuck roast Ground beef Jan-Jun 2018 vs. 2017: -3.5% -4.1% +4.7% -3.0% -1.7% +4.5% -1.2% N/A -0.6% -1.2% +2.8% Percent Change, 2017 vs. 2010

26 $ Per Cwt. MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-49A 08/06/18

27 $ Per Cwt. SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/06/18

28 Dollars per Cwt. Cattle Prices Fed Steer Feeder Steers ( lb) (p) 2020 (p)

29 Dollars per Cwt Hog Price (Quarterly) (p)

30 $ per cwt Quarterly U.S. All Milk Prices USDA July Forecast

31 Dollars per Cwt. / Million Head What s Wrong With This Picture? All Milk Price Dairy Cows (right axis)

32 Dollars per hundredweight MPP Margin

33 Dollars per Pound Global Dairy Product Prices Jan Jul Jan Jul 2015 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Butter Cheese SMP

34 Know What to Look For Moving Forward Average profitability will struggle through 2019 Heavy supplies weigh on prices and limit any rallies The market will struggle to assess tariff impacts Feed prices will move on weather and tariff news Locking in positive profits will be difficult Domestic demand could offset a lot of other negatives Economic projections still bright The majority of our meat and dairy is consumed in this country Trade Assistance Package International market development Direct payments hogs, dairy Domestic market purchases

35 Questions Dr. Scott Brown University of Missouri 222 Mumford Hall Columbia, MO (573) 882 Weekly Livestock Update, Brownfield Ag News

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