Hospitality Outlook Asheville, NC

Transcription

1 Hospitality Outlook Asheville, NC Chad Church STR 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

3 Total US - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 % Change Hotels 53 k Room Supply 1.9 bn 1.8% Room Demand 1.2 bn 2.7% Occupancy 65.9% 0.9% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $156 bn 4.9%

4 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December Supply % Change Demand % Change Feb % Mar % Sept %

5 Total United States Occupancy Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December June Jan/Feb

6 Total United States Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December Sept June

7 Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

8 Total United States Under Contract Pipeline by Chain Scale In Thousands December 2017 In Construction 57.9 Final Planning 40.5 Planning Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

9 Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

10 Buncombe Co. Hotel Census As of December 2017 Properties (77) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Rooms (7,694) 1,175 1,437 1, ,116 1,153 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent

11 Development Activity 19 properties in the active pipeline Either in construction or planning stages Approx. 754 rooms slated for 2018 (~10% of current stock) Element by Westin Holiday Inn & Suites Arden Glo Hotel Best Western Hampton Inn & Suites Biltmore Area The Asheville Foundry Inn, Curio Collection by Hilton Arras The Parisian LaQuinta Inn & Suites

12 Buncombe County Performance Snapshot Key Performance Indicators Twelve Month Moving Average percentage change December Occupancy ADR RevPAR

13 Buncombe County Hotel Class Segments Occupancy/ADR/RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2017 vs Occupancy ADR RevPAR Lux/Upper Up Upscale/Upper Mid Midscale/Econ

14 Buncombe County Performance Snapshot Key Performance Indicators Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 vs Hotels - 7,694 Rooms % Rooms Sampled 2.5 $ $ % -1.1 Occupancy ADR RevPAR

15 Buncombe County Room Nights Available Twelve Month Moving Average ,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 Supply Growth +4.5% 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,

16 Buncombe County Room Nights Available & Demand Twelve Month Moving Average ,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Supply Demand Prior Peak: Mar m 1,000, Demand +3.4%

17 Buncombe County Occupancy Rate by Month 2016 vs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

18 Buncombe County Day of Week Occupancy Annual Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

19 Buncombe County Average Daily Rate (ADR) by Month 2016 vs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20 Buncombe County Occupancy & Average Daily Rate % Change by Month Occupancy ADR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

21 STR and AirDNA Definitions STR Room Demand The number of hotel rooms sold in a specified time period (excluding complimentary rooms) as tracked by STR. Hotel Comparable Studio and one bedroom entire place rentals. AirDNA believes these are the type of listings most likely to compete directly with hotels. Other Types AirDNA entire place room nights less hotel comparable room nights. This would include 2+ bedroom rentals.

22 Buncombe County Room Nights Demand Airdna & STR Monthly ,000 Hotel Comparable Other Types STR - Hotel Total 280, ,000 74% 200, ,000 94% 120,000 80,000 40, % 2% Source: Airdna & STR 19% 7%

23 Buncombe County Room Nights Demand Airdna & STR Monthly , ,000 Hotel Comparable STR - Hotel Total 240, , , ,000 80,000 40, % 2% % 9% Source: Airdna & STR

24 Airdna Hotel Comparable Room Nights Booked Monthly ,655 12,018 11,698 11,867 12,205 7,090 8,258 9,165 10,186 4,554 4, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna

25 Airdna Hotel Comparable Rooms vs. STR Occupancy Monthly Airdna STR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR

26 Total Occupancy (AirDNA Hotel Comparable and STR) Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: AirDNA & STR

27 Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADR Monthly Airdna STR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR

28 Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADR % Change Monthly vs. Last Year Airdna STR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR

29 Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

30 Comparable Markets Supply % Change Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga -0.4

31 Pipeline Current Supply / New Supply Market/Submarket 2015 % Growth 2017 % Growth 2019 Charleston, SC 18, % 20, % 23,484 Savannah, GA 14, % 15, % 17,769 Austin CBD, TX 8, % 9, % 11,752 Buncombe County, NC 6, % 7, % 9,205 Cary/South Raleigh, NC 4, % 5, % 6,034 Brentwood/Franklin, TN 4, % 5, % 6,294 Mount Pleasant/Isle Of Palms, SC 2, % 3, % 4,318

32 Supply % Change 2017 vs All United States Submarkets 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% Asheville 10.6% 599 of % -5.0% -15.0%

33 Comparable Markets Demand % Change Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

34 Comparable Markets Absolute Occupancy Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

35 Comparable Markets Absolute ADR Total Year $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $98.25 $92.01 $93.56 $89.48 $84.88 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

36 Comparable Markets ADR % Change Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

37 Comparable Markets Weekday Occupancy Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

38 Comparable Markets Weekday Occupancy Total Year Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

39 Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

40 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F 2018F Outlook 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast Supply 2.0% 2.2% Demand 1.7% 2.0% Occupancy -0.3% -0.2% ADR 2.8% 2.8% RevPAR 2.5% 2.6%

41 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.4% 2.5% 2.1% Upper Upscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.3% Upscale -1.1% 2.5% 1.3% Upper Midscale -0.7% 2.3% 1.6% Midscale 0.1% 2.4% 2.5% Economy 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% Independent -0.3% 3.0% 2.7% Total United States -0.3% 2.8% 2.5%

42 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale 2018 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.2% 3.0% 2.8% Upper Upscale -0.1% 2.8% 2.7% Upscale -0.7% 2.5% 1.7% Upper Midscale -0.6% 2.5% 1.9% Midscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.2% Economy -0.1% 2.3% 2.3% Independent -0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Total United States -0.2% 2.8% 2.6%