South Asia. Economy and trade. Shailesh Garg Director General Manager Drewry Maritime Services Pvt. Ltd
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1 South Asia Economy and trade 10 October 2018 Shailesh Garg Director General Manager Drewry Maritime Services Pvt. Ltd
2 Agenda Global & regional overview Country overview Bangladesh-Key trends and issues South Asia- Untapped potential 2
3 Global & regional overview
4 9.0% Global economy and trade Global & South Asia GDP growth Signs of recovery in global economy 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% South Asia World Emerging markets to drive growth and outlook for South Asia remain Strong Global & South Asia trade growth (in value terms) 40% 30% 20% South Asia GDP expected to grow around 7% between % 0% -10% -20% Global trade grew by 10% in 2017 Source: IMF, Drewry Global Trade Total South Asia 4
5 South Asia overview $373 billion 2% of world import GDP $3.3 trillion 4.1% of world GDP $599 billion 3% of world exports Intra-SAARC trade ($bn) - 6% Share of intra-regional trade of SAARC countries Country Export market Import source Afghanistan 79% 17% Bangladesh 1% 22% Bhutan 96% 90% India 5% 1% Maldives 19% 20% Nepal 56% 66% Pakistan 12% 4% Sri Lanka 9% 25% Source: IMF,
6 Country overview
7 India overview GDP growth in India 10.0% 8.0% Rising trade demand 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% GST implementation and cabotage relaxation Source: IMF Total trade (USD Billion) 1, Regional Trade Partners Bangladesh Sri Lanka Total trade CAGR ( ): -1.4% Export Import Total Container Port utilisation: 60% Total container trade (CAGR ) : 8.5% 7
8 Pakistan overview GDP growth in Pakistan 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Increasing domestic consumption High external debt 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Total trade (USD Billion) China Pakistan Economic Corridor is good but has many apprehensions CAGR ( ): 2.8% Regional Trade Partners India Afghanistan Rising Imports Declining Exports Export Import Total Source: IMF, WTO 8 Total container trade CAGR ( ): 9.4%
9 Sri Lanka overview GDP growth in Sri Lanka 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% GDP to rebound in 2018 after falling to a 16 year low in 2017 External debt to reach US$3.8 billion in 2019 according to US State Department 0.0% Growing Middle Class Total trade (USD Billion) CAGR ( ): 4.2% Export Import Total Source: IMF, WTO 9 Regional Trade Partners India Total trade CAGR ( ): 4.2% Total container trade CAGR ( ): 8.2% Development of : Colombo port Hambantota port Colombo Port city
10 Myanmar overview GDP growth in Myanmar 9.0% GDP to grow at 7% in % 3.0% Total trade CAGR ( ):14.8% 0.0% Total trade (USD Billion) CAGR ( ): 14.8% Container trade CARG ( ):11.4% Special economic zones developed Export Import Total 10 Source: IMF,WTO
11 Nepal and Bhutan overview GDP growth in Nepal Total trade (USD Billion) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% CAGR ( ): 9.3% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% GDP growth in Bhutan Export Import Total Total trade (USD Billion) 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% CAGR ( ): 6.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: IMF,WTO Export Import Total 11
12 Afghanistan and Maldives overview GDP growth in Afghanistan 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% GDP growth in Maldives Total trade (USD Billion) CAGR ( ): 6.8% Export Import Total Total trade (USD Billion) 8.0% 3.00 CAGR ( ): 8.4% 7.0% % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% % % 0.0% Export Import Total Source: IMF,WTO 12
13 Bangladesh-Key trends and issues 13
14 Bangladesh overview GDP growth in Bangladesh 8.0% 6.0% GDP to grow at 7% in % 2.0% 0.0% Export growth depending on RMG Total trade (USD Billion) CAGR ( ): 7.8% Regional Trade Partners India Total trade CAGR ( ):7.8% Total container trade CAGR ( ): 13.1% Export Import Total Source: IMF, WTO Additional port capacity required
15 Bangladesh Emerging Opportunities Robust Economic Growth Growing Trade Port capacity development Hinterland Connectivity Increasing demand for consumer goods Infrastructure development RMG exports Demand for bulk and raw material Rising imports for project cargo Port Mechanization New Port development India- Bangladesh Coastal Shipping Agreement Inland Terminals Rail and Road capacity augmentation 15 Higher income levels leading to demand for white goods, packaged and processed food Demand for housing, support infrastructure Demand for construction material Port development- Laldia Terminal, Bay Terminal, Patenga Terminal IWT terminals Development of Chittagong coastal road Bangladesh rail- Modernisation Plan, Dhaka Chittagong rail project
16 Score Bangladesh Key Challenges in logistics sector 5 Marine access 4 Policy/PPP Liner Connectivity 3 2 Inland Connectivity Terminal capacity 1 High Supply Chain Cost Project Delays Limited Coastal movement 16 Port Congestion Decision-making delays Due to lack of return cargo Inadequate Inland Connectivity Lack of planning Low vessel frequency & services Source: Results of the survey conducted by Drewry and Gateway Media in Bangladesh in 2018
17 Bangladesh Recommendations Policy initiatives Removing operational, fiscal and legislative constraints Model concession agreement Land Lord Port model Planning and Capacity development Integrated development approach Setting efficiency benchmarks Project due diligence Public Private Partnership Modernization of existing ports New port development Support infrastructure International terminal operator Tariff Guidelines Tariff fixation and escalation framework Incentivizing efficiency 17
18 South Asia- Untapped potential 18
19 South Asia Intraregional trade Estimated Trade potential $67 billion Actual trade estimated at around $23 billion Accounting for just 5% of total South Asian Trade Source : World Bank Actions required Removing Trade barriers Reducing cost of trade Building trust Import Tariff Non-Tariff Border access Improved connectivity Clearance process Documentation Political initiatives People to people interaction 19
20 About Drewry Drewry is a leading international provider of research and consulting services to the maritime and shipping industry with unrivalled experience and expertise across all market sectors from containers and ports to tankers and dry bulk. From our origins in 1970 London to a 21st century maritime and shipping consultancy, Drewry has established itself as one of the most widely used and respected sources of impartial market insight and industry analysis. This in-depth understanding and objectivity provides our clients with the actionable advice and recommendations they need to achieve their ambitions and stay ahead of the market. We provide our services through four business units: Drewry Maritime Advisors supporting the needs of shipping and financial institutions; Drewry Supply Chain Advisors providing seafreight procurement support to retailers and manufacturers; Drewry Maritime Research publishing market-leading research on every key maritime sector; and Drewry Maritime Equity Research delivering an Investment Research Service on listed companies operating in the industry. 20
21 Our four Business Units Our research provides the robust analysis and balanced opinion those within shipping, finance and logistics need to make informed business decisions. The range of titles and reports we publish keep our clients up to date on every key maritime sector, from dry bulk to chemicals and from LPG to ferries, with detailed analysis and insightful commentary on past, present and future sector performance. 21 Our Maritime Advisors offer a wealth of experience across the maritime sectors and lead the industry in their respective areas of specialisation. Our sector expertise covers; ports, bulk shipping, liner shipping, shipyards, ferry and RoRo, technical ship management. Our combination of deep sector understanding, technical expertise and market leading insight enables us to be confident in our actions and ability to deliver the right results for our clients. We focus on advising users of international multi-modal transport services, taking our extensive understanding of the industry and applying it to all stages of the supply chain. Through our supply chain research catalogue and industry knowledge, we offer a range of procurement support services that empower importers and exporters, providing them with the tools, resources and tailored advice they need to more effectively manage their transport service provider and international supply chains. Combining our market- leading resources with seasoned sector expertise and commercial awareness we are now able to offer a highly differentiated and comprehensive Investment Research Service to prospective investors in publically listed maritime and shipping companies. Our service covers a range of report formats, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars aimed at providing our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible.
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