2017/18 Soybean Outlook
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1 217/18 Soybean Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee Overview Domestic (U.S.) Supply and Demand Tennessee Global Supply and Demand Price, Commodity Program Payments, and Crop Insurance 218 Price Outlook 1
2 U.S. Supply Increased acreage Five consecutive years of above trend line yield 2
3 U.S. Planted and Harvested Soybean Acres, Acres (millions) Harvested Planted 1. U.S. Soybean Harvested to Planted Ratio, Harvested to Planted Ratio) Max 99.2% Min 24.9% Average 85.3% StDev 23.8%
4 6 U.S. Average Soybean Yield, Yield (bu/acre) U.S. Soybean Yield =.3644x R² =
5 Billions of Dollars U.S. Soybean Production, Increased yield and acreage = greater production. Prices have improved from 215. Aggregated result is greater revenue $ bu Billions of Bushels 5
6 Millions of Bushels or Bushel Equivalent U.S. Soybean Marketing Year (September 1 to August 31) Ending Stocks, Oil: 1 MT=26 bu Meal: 1 MT = bu Meal Oil Soybeans Meal Oil Soybeans Tennessee Great growing season for most of the state. Record Yield! 6
7 Acres 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Tennessee Soybean Acres Planted and Harvested, % 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% Harvested to Planted (%) Harvested Planted H/P Soybeans Acres Planted In Tennessee, 217 (FSA Certified) 7
8 Tennessee Top 5 Planted Acres of Soybeans, 217 (FSA Certified) 8
9 Tennessee Average Soybean Yield, All time record! 5 TN Yield =.3678x R² =.82 Yield (bu/acre) Yield Linear (Yield) Tennessee Soybean Production, Millions of Dollars 1, $278 $198 $469 $671 $485 $492 $682 $937 $785 $735 $ Millions of Bushels $ Bu 9
10 U.S. Demand Strong Crush and Export Demand U.S. Soybean Use, Billions of Bushels Soybeans = 79.2% soybean meal = 17.8% soybean oil = 3.% waste Exports Crush Feed Waste Domestic Consumption 1
11 3.5 U.S. Soybean, Soybean Oil, and Soybean Meal Exports, Billions of Bushels (eq. Bushels) Oil: 1 MT=26 bu Meal: 1 MT = bu Soybean Meal Oil 8 U.S. Soybean, Soybean Oil, and Soybean Meal Days on Hand [(Ending Stocks/(Use/365)], Meal Oil Soybean
12 Soybean Domestic Balance Sheet, USDA WASDE 217/18 Projected September 217/18 Projected October 217/18 Change From Previous Month Change 216/17 to 217/18 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 Est. Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield Planted (Million Acres) Harvested (Million Acres) U.S. Yield (Bu/Acre) Supply (Million Bushels) Beg. Stocks Production 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,431 4, Imports Total Supply 3,57 4,52 4,14 4,515 4,81 4, Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Crushing 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,94 1,94 41 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,942 2,174 2,25 2,25 76 Seed and Residual Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,326 4, U.S. Ending Stocks Foreign Stocks 2,211 2,658 2,66 3,184 3,19 3, Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Average Price ($/Bu) $13. $1.1 $8.95 $9.5 $8.35-$1.5 $8.35-$1.5 $. -$.3 U.S. Stocks/Use 2.65% 4.95% 4.99% 7.14% 1.98% 9.94% -1.4% 2.8% Global Supply & Demand Production dominated by three countries US, Brazil, and Argentina One major importer China 12
13 7 6 World Acres Harvested for Specified Oilseed Crops, Since 26 the world has added million acres. 5 Millions of Acres Since 26 the world has added 77 million acres of soybeans Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Palm Kernel 35 World Soybean Harvested Acres, Acres Harvested (millions) Million Acres (31 yrs) Million Acres (23 yrs) 13
14 Source: Global Agricultural Monitoring Source: Global Agricultural Monitoring 14
15 15
16 World Soybean Yields by Country (bu/acre) Country 1977 Yield 1 Year Average Yield 217/18 Yield Difference from 1 Year Average Argentina Brazil China United States World U.S. and South American yields are very similar, unlike corn. China has the potential to increase soybean yield and acres (over the long term) Billions of Bushels World Soybean Production by Country, U.S. share of world soybean production has decreased from 67% in 1977 to 35% in 217. However, world production has increased 482% over the same time United States Brazil Argentina China ROW 16
17 14 Global Soybean Production, Consumption, and Ending Stocks, Billions of Bushels Ending Stocks Production Domestic Consumption 1.8 Global Soybean Consumption per Capita, bu/person/year :.84 bu/person/year Soybean consumption per person has doubled in the past 23 years. 217: 1.68 bu/person/year
18 TOP 5 SOYBEAN EXPORTERS, 217/18 MARKETING YEAR Brazil United States Argentina Canada Paraguay ROW TOP 5 SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTERS, 217/18 MARKETING YEAR Argentina Brazil United States European Union Paraguay ROW 4% 4%4% 5% 17% 42% 6% 7% 5% 41% TOP 5 SOYBEAN MEAL EXPORTERS, 217/18 MARKETING YEAR Argentina Brazil United States Paraguay India ROW 8% 12% 8% 3% 4% 16% 46% 23% Top 5 Soybean Importers, 217/18 Marketing Year Top 5 Soybean Oil Importers, 217/18 Marketing Year 2% 2% 3% 9% 2% 64% China European Union Mexico Japan Thailand ROW Top 5 Soybean Meal Importers, 217/18 Marketing Year 43% 4% 4% 6% 36% 7% India Bangladesh Algeria China Morocco ROW 3% European Union Vietnam 46% 4% 9% Indonesia Thailand Philippines ROW 4% 7% 18
19 4. China Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Imports Billions of Bushels Soybean Oil Meal Global Soybean Days on Hand [Ending Stocks/(Consumption/365)], # of Days Meal Oil Soybean
20 Global Soybean Stocks by Country (as of the end of the U.S. marketing year), Billions of Bushels Argentina Brazil China United States ROW World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 217/18 (October) Country / Region Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Crush Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks World 3,486 12,782 5,462 11,69 12,653 5,547 3,529 US 31 4, ,94 2,76 2, Foreign 3,184 8,352 5,437 9,129 1,577 3,297 3,99 Argentina 1,322 2, ,648 1, ,364 Brazil 899 3, ,543 1,679 2, Paraguay China ,491 3,454 4, EU Japan Mexico ROW 17 1,34 1,89 1,547 2,
21 Price, Commodity Program Payments, and Crop Insurance Reliance on exports make the strength of the USD and trade negotiations extremely important to soybean prices U.S. Average Farm Soybean Price, : Average = $1.53; Range: $6.43 $14.4; Duration: 12+. Price ($/bu) : Average = $1.74; Range: $.48 $3.53; Duration: 24 years : Average = $2.48; Range: $1.81 $4.37; Duration: 33 years : Average = $5.96; Range: $4.38 $7.83; Duration: 33 years
22 12 November Soybean Futures 11 Cents/Bushel Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov Tennessee Average Monthly Soybean Basis, Basis ($/bu).2.1. (.1) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (.2) (.3) Northwest Northwest Barge Pts Memphis Upper mid Lower mid TN (Soybeans) 22
23 .4 Tenessee Soybean Basis and Price ($/bu).1. (.1) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (.2) (.3) (.4) Commodity Program Payments (Soybean) ARC CO Payments 214: 9 Counties; payment rate $ $52.76 per base acre 215: 39 Counties; payment rate $ $6.12 per base acre 216: 63 Counties; payment rate $ $62.91per base acre Payments will decline in 217 and substantially decline in 218 PLC Payments (Reference Price = $8.4) 214: $ $1.1 MYA 215: $ $8.95 MYA 216: $ $9.47 MYA 217: $ $9.2 MYA ****Payments are delayed one year 216 payments were received beginning Oct 1, 217**** 23
24 Acres 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Tennessee Base, Planted, and Insured Acres 214: 32,13 acres of soybeans were planted on generic base 215: 37,848 acres of soybeans were planted on generic base Base Acres FSA Planted ('14 '16) NASS Planted ('14 '16) RMA Insured ('14 '16) Tennessee Soybean Crop Insurance Summary AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER OF CROP INSURANCE POLICIES PURCHASED BY INSURANCE PLAN FOR SOYBEANS IN TENNESSEE, ARP, 8 SCOR, 1 AYP, 63 AYP CAT, 1 YP CAT, 1,449 RPHPE, 5 YP, 52 Number of Policies 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Revenue Protection Crop Insurance For Soybeans by Buy up Level Purchased in Tennessee, RP, 4,79 5% 55% 6% 65% 7% 75% 8% 85% Buy up AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER OF ACRES INSURED BY INSURANCE PLAN FOR SOYBEANS IN TENNESSEE, ARP, 2,748 SCOR, AYP, 15,671 RPHPE, 1,121 YP CAT, 168,67 AYP CAT, 79 YP, 92,344 RP, 1,18,528 Number of Policies Yield Protection Crop Insurance For Soybeans by Buy up Level Purchased in Tennessee, % 55% 6% 65% 7% 75% 8% 85% Buy up
25 218 Price Outlook South American crop progress, trade negotiations, USD, and macro economic conditions will drive prices. Tennessee Considerations for 218 Old crop (217) Tennessee basis is likely to remain weak and will likely be negative longer than average due to record yields and production. South American weather, strength of the USD, macro economic conditions, and trade will dictate any major price changes. New crop Planted acreage will be dictated by relative prices (corn and cotton), crop insurance prices, and South American crop progress. 25
26 16 U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use to Price Relationship, Price ($/bu) y = e 3.94x R² = /18 USDA projected stocks to use =1%.% 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% 1.% 12.% 14.% 16.% 18.% 2.% Stocks to Use Ratio (%) Price ($/bu) Global Soybean Stocks to Use to Price Relationship, y = x R² = /18 USDA projected World stocks to use = 28%.% 5.% 1.% 15.% 2.% 25.% 3.% 35.% Stocks to Use Ratio (%) 26
27 218 Price Projections Source 218 Price CBOT $9.93 CBO $9.53 FAPRI $9.82 WASDE $
28 Price ($/bu) Average Monthly Deviation from the Marketing Year Average Soybean Price in Tennessee, $.12 $.16 $.29 $.5 $.78 $.8 $.13 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC.4 $.29 $.31.6 $ $.83 $.84 Soybean - Net Return Table ($/acre) Assumes a cost of production of $47/acre Yield (bu/acre) (257) (22) (182) (145) (17) (7) (32) (252) (213) (175) (136) (97) (58) (2) (247) (27) (167) (127) (87) (47) (7) (242) (21) (16) (118) (77) (36) (237) (195) (152) (11) (67) (25) (232) (188) (145) (11) (57) (13) (227) (182) (137) (92) (47) (2) Price 9.25 (222) (176) (13) (83) (37) ($/bu) 9.5 (217) (17) (122) (75) (27) (212) (163) (115) (66) (17) (27) (157) (17) (57) (7) (22) (151) (1) (48) (197) (145) (92) (4) (192) (138) (85) (31) (187) (132) (77) (22) (182) (126) (7) (13)
29 Soybean/Corn (s/c) Price Ratio Monthly U.S. Price Ratios Corn, Soybeans, and Upland Cotton, Price ratio is one out of three relative ratios to consider (price, yield, & cost) Cotton/Corn and Cotton/Soybean Price Ratio s/c ct/c ct/s Key Issues for 218 Global demand for soybeans remains strong Trade Competition for exports from South America Huge unknown in trade policy/bilateral/multilateral trade agreements U.S. 218 acres planted? Macro economic conditions, USD, and domestic policy Look for continued prices $8.5 $1.5 per bushel with the possibility of improved new crop price prospects Take advantage of marketing opportunities when they are presented Beware of a black swan event 29
30 Resources Crop Economics Webpage Market highlights Crop Budgets UT Crop Blog Quarterly Market Zoom Meeting (next one Nov 8) Thank you Questions? 3
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