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2 CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative and INNOVATIVE environment designed for working professionals. Learn in small classes led by top-tier faculty. Complete an MBA in evening classes in 2 YEARS. Lock-step design yields 90% graduation rate. TWO CONVENIENT LOCATIONS: Boulder and Parker, CO CLASSES START MAY 2016! LEARN MORE LeedsMBA@colorado.edu

3 2016 Outlook: Headwinds or Tailwinds? Financial Planning Association of Colorado Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division Leeds School of Business January 22, 2016

4 Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

5 National Employment Recession 8 Months Thousands, Month-over- Month Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

6 State Employment Growth Pre-Recession Peak to November 2015 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 National Unemployment Percentage of Labor Force U-3 U-2 U-1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force U-6 U-5 U-4 U-3 U-2 U-1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

9 Labor Slack Number of Available People Per Job Opening People per job opening 10 Ratio of people not in the labor force who want a job now and the total number of unemployed, divided by total number of job openings Pre-recession average Sources: BLS JOLTS, Labor Force, and Unemployment; Deutsche Bank Research.

10 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National, by Age Cohort, November % 80% 70% Labor Force Participation Rate 80.7% 82.2% 79.7% 70.5% 64.3% 12% 10% 9.6% Unemployment Rate 60% 8% 50% 40% 6% 5.5% 30% 4% 3.9% 3.3% 3.6% 20% 10% 2% 0% % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, all data seasonally adjusted except for ages

11 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 5.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

12 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Q Q Q Q Q Q Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

13 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR FOR Q3 1984Q1 1987Q3 1991Q1 1994Q3 1998Q1 2001Q3 2005Q1 2008Q3 2012Q1 2015Q3 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

14 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985= Recession 8 months Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

15 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales YOY, Percentage Change , ,000 10,000 5, Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau.

16 Nominal Corporate Profits and U.S. Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % % Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

17 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

18 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

19 Housing Affordability Index Composite Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Source: National Association of Realtors.

20 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

21 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $ ,000-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

22 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions Real Net Exports $585 Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

23 Money, Interest Rates, and Prices

24 Interest Rates Percent Year Treasury Interest Rates, (Forecast) Month Treasury

25 The FED Balance Sheet, QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 Fed promises near zero interest rates until mid-2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 Operation Twist Swaps Tapering Tapering Complete $ Millions 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Other Assets Mortgage Backed Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Treasury Securities Federal Funds Rate Increase? 500, Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.

26 National Inflation Percent All Items All Items Less Food and Energy Shelter

27 International and National Summary Global output and trade growth Value of the dollar strengthening GDP growth nearing potential Balance sheets getting stronger Rising (but low) interest rates Subdued inflation

28 Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

29 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands Net Migration Natural Increase 4th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 22nd-most populated state in nation Continued net migration into the state 83% of population along Front Range Source: Colorado Demography Office.

30 Colorado Employment and Education, 2015 Employment by Occupation Management 4% Bus. and financial operations 7% Computer and math 4% Architecture and engineering 2% Science 1% Education training 6% Arts and entertainment 2% Healthcare 5% Educational Attainment Adults over age 25 with a bachelor s degree or higher U.S. 29.1% Colorado 37.5% Adults over age 25 with a high school diploma U.S. 86.4% Colorado 90.6% Other 68% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

31 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added, Thousands , Best years since Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

32 Employment Change Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Construction Leisure and Hospitality Government Financial Activities Manufacturing Other Services Information Natural Resources and Mining Thousands of Jobs Source: Boulder Economic Outlook Forum (BEOF).

33 Employment Recovery National, State, and Local Percent 30.0% 25.0% Greeley 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Ft. Collins- Loveland Colorado Boulder Pueblo National Colorado Springs Grand Junction Denver Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

34 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate, November YoY Fort Collins Greeley Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado 1.8% Fort Collins Greeley Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Unemployment Rate November 2015 Colorado 3.5% NSA, 3.6% SA Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Percentage

35 Personal Income Growth 2015

36 Location Quotient Colorado 3.0 LQ 2.5 Information 2.0 PBS 1.5 L&H 1.0 Manufacturing Financial activites Other TTU EHS % -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 3 Year CAGR

37 Consumer Price Index All Items Percent CPI Percent Change, United States Denver-Boulder-Greeley % % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics available through June.

38 Natural Resources and Mining

39 Colorado Gasoline Prices Dollars per Gallon $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 July 7, 2008: US $4.17 CO $4.03 December 23, 2014: US $3.35 CO $3.09 $3.00 $2.50 Average $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 December 21, 2015: US $2.13 CO $1.97 $0.50 $ Source: Weekly Colorado All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon).

40 Crude Oil Production Largest Producers 1. Texas 2. North Dakota 3. California 4. New Mexico 5. Alaska 6. Colorado 7. Oklahoma 8. Wyoming 9. Louisiana 10. Kansas Production boosted by Millions of Barrels Horizontal drilling Hydraulic fracturing Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

41 Construction Value of Construction Nonbuilding 14% Nonresidential 30% Residential 55% Photo Courtesy

42 Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60,000 50,000 Households Housing Units 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,

43 Colorado Foreclosures ,000 70,000 60,000 Total State Foreclosures Over Time Sales 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Filings YTD Source: Colorado Division of Housing data available through September.

44 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index by MSA Q Q Colorado 12.7% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Fort Collins Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Percent CAGR Q Q Colorado 2.5% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Fort Collins Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

45 Residential Building Permits ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Multifamily 36,750 Residential Housing: Home appreciation among the fastest nationally Mostly single family permits in ,000 15,000 Lowest foreclosure rate in two decades 10,000 5,000 0 Single Family Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

46 Value of Construction $ Millions 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential $16.8 B Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

47 Retail Trade Sales Colorado Taxable Retail Sales 12-Month Rolling Sum 12-Month Rolling Sum, $ Millions Percent Change 10.0 Colorado Retail Trade Sales Nominal Growth Months Real Growth Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

48 Colorado General Fund Gross Revenue (excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers) $ Millions 12,000 11,400 10,800 10,200 9,600 9,000 8,400 7,800 7,200 6,600 6,000 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Source: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers, December 2014.

49 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 110,000 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 Employment New Entity Filings 105, ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 2, Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team. 60,000

50 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2016

51 Colorado Economic Indicators Year Consumer Price Inflation Percent Change Retail Sales Colorado Economic Indicators Percent Change Personal Income Unemployment Rate Percent Change Employment 2013 a a a Historical data. Note: Represents annual averages of the month-to-month growth rate.

52 State Summary Colorado outperforms nation in employment growth Falling unemployment Full employment??? Labor force pressures Growing population Strong in-migration

53 Concerns Fed funds target rate Cost of housing Availability of labor Price of oil El Niño Median family income

54 Thank You!