Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025

Transcription

1 Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014 Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19 th November, 2014 AIDAN COTTER BORD BIA CHIEF EXECUTIVE 28 JANUARY 2009

2 The Emerald Isle Dairy exports to grow by 1.8 Ireland billion over the next five years (based on 2013 prices & product mix) Meat & Livestock 3,305 m 33% Hort & Cereals 225 m Seafood 520 m Prepared Foods 967 m Beverages 1,250 0 m Dairy 3,642 m 37% And account for over 45% of total food & drink exports (based on 2013 non-dairy volumes and prices)

3 Dairy Exports are more internationally oriented.. Distribution by region 2013 (%) 50 Food & Drink Dairy United Kingdom Other EU Int. Markets Irish dairy products were exported to more than 140 countries in 2013

4 The industry has been reaching out beyond Europe Distribution of Dairy Exports 2000 to 2013 (%) UK Continental EU International Markets 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

5 Dairy Exports to International Markets Diversified 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Other US ME Africa Asia 0%

6 Irish Dairy Exports to China growing rapidly m Other Whey Butter & cheese Milk Powders IMF

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8 What s Driving Global Demand for Food Billions World Population billion 5 billion 4 billion 8.1 billion ion 7.3 billion 54% in cities 58% in cities 9 billion 66% in cities billion 30% in cities Source: UN World Population Prospects; the 2012 revision

9 India and China Make Waves in the Global Middle Class 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 3 billion consumers 2015 will join the middle classes from 2010 to 2030 United States % EU Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, Others Other Asia India 20% 10% % Japan changing lifestyles, shifting dietary habits China 0% Source: OECD Working Paper

10 % 70 More than three of every four people live in Asia or Africa From 2015 to 2025 population will grow by 760m Latin America +61m North America +29m Africa +302m Asia +364m Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America 5 1 Oceania Source: UN World Population Statistics, 2012

11 Global population continues to grow older % of population aged over 60 in Europe, by 2025 more than 200 million people will be over World Asia Europe North America Source: UN Population Division 2012 Africa

12 Ending the War on Fat

13 Climate Change Supply Challenges The most frequent and significant factor causing volatility is unpredictable weather conditions. FAO/OECD Agricultural Outlook, By 2025, two-thirds of the world s population could be living under water stress conditions. UN Food for Fuel: 40% of US corn used for ethanol Agriculture uses 70% of the world s freshwater

14 Emerging markets driving global demand Global demand for livestock & fish products (% Ch 2023 vs average) 50 World Developing OECD Beef Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Butter Cheese WMP SMP Fish Source: OECD & FAO Secretariats

15 Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Annual consumption to grow by 2.4% North America 1.4% Latin America And Caribbean 1.9% Europe 0.4% Africa 3.3% Russia 0.7% Saudi Arabia 3.6% China 3% India 3.7% SE Asia 2.7% Japan 0.4% Oceania 1.2% Annual Increase Source: OECD FAO

16 Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Total consumption to grow by 27% North America 15% Latin America And Caribbean 21.1% Europe 4.1% Africa 38.5% Russia 7.4% Saudi Arabia 41.9% China 33% India 43.9% SE Asia 30% Japan 3.9% Oceania 12.7% Total Increase Source: OECD FAO

17 Global Milk Production to 2023 Europe India US China Pakistan Russia Brazil New Zealand Turkey Argentina Ukraine Australia Mexico Canada Annual growth down from 2.2% to 1.9% 78% of growth in developing countries Source: OECD FAO M tns

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19 World trade in dairy products to 2023 EU, US, NZ and Australia account for almost 80% of exports SMP +2.5% pa US largest source at 34% by 2023 Cheese +2.4% pa EU to account for 39% by 2023 Butter +0.7% NZ the primary source 47% market share WMP +1.7%pa NZ share to rise to 57% Annual, global import growth and export market share

20 The Importance of China Thousands MT World s largest dairy importer Declining self-sufficiency sufficiency Per capita consumption less than 1/3 rd world average Rising import demand Butter +24%, Cheese +228%, SMP + 86%, WMP + 44% Growth to 2023 Liquid Milk Imports

21 World Dairy Prices to , $/tonne 5,000 4,000 3,000 Cheese WMP SMP Butter 2,000 1, Source: OECD FAO

22 Customer priorities..sourcing from Ireland

23 Customer priorities..europe

24 Customer priorities..saudi Arabia

25 Customer priorities..china Wandashan Yili Feihe

26 Customer priorities..sourcing from Ireland long-term agreements

27 Energy Emissions Water Traceability Welfare Food Safety Environment Animal Health Biodiversity Socio-economic data

28 South Senegal Indonesia Korea Vietnam Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets Growing the success of Irish food od & horticulture

29 300+ hours in-field 3 Cities Shanghai Beijing Chengdu 14 brand clinics 48 home visits 36 store visits Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets

30 Components of S & P 500 Market Value 100% 80% % % % % Intangible Assets Tangible Assets Source: Ocean Tomo

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32 Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014 Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19 th November, 2014 AIDAN COTTER BORD BIA CHIEF EXECUTIVE 28 JANUARY 2009