Global Hotel Industry Outlook

Transcription

1 Global Hotel Industry Outlook NYU 2011 Mark V. Lomanno CEO STR

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3 Agenda Global Hotel Performance US Hotel Performance Chain Scales Group/Transient Distribution Channel s Forecast

4 Global Hotel Performance

5 Global Regions Occupancy Percent Change Comparable Time Period December 2010 YTD vs. April 2011 YTD YTD Q Europe Americas Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific -8.5

6 Global Regions ADR Percent Change (In US$) December 2010 YTD vs. April 2011 YTD Q Europe Americas Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific

7 Global Regions RevPAR Percent Change (In US$) December 2010 YTD vs. April 2011 YTD Q Europe Americas Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific 0.5

8 Global Pipeline In Construction (Rooms) April 2011 Europe 58,697 rooms Asia Pacific 182,664 rooms North America 67,060 rooms Central/South America 11,398 rooms ME & A 68,588 rooms Source: STR / STRGlobal

9 U.S. Hotel Performance

10 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Year End 2010 vs. April YTD Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR 8.7

11 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April June % Supply % Change Demand % Change 7.9% Jan % Nov % Mar % Aug % Sep 09 7% 1.4%

12 Total United States Occupancy Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April June Dec Apr Aug Jan

13 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Current Recent Peak Average Daily Rooms Available Average Daily Rooms Sold 3,337,800 4,185,400 4,831,900 4,831,900 2,123,100 2,644,500 2,827,600 2,827,600 Occupancy 63.6 % 63.2 % 58.5% 63.5 % Average Rate $58.20 $84.66 $98.99 $ RevPar $37.02 $53.49 $56.46 $66.02 Room Revenue 45.1 b 81.7 b b b

14 10 Total United States Room Nights Sold 12 Month Moving Average (000,000,000) January 1989 April

15 Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April Jan June Occ % Chg ADR % Chg Mar Aug Nov Sept Jan

16 Total United States ADR Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April Seas Adj $ Sep $85.98 Oct 2000 $86.32 Oct

17 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April Jan June Apr Oct June Oct

18 Chain Scales

19 Chain Scales Supply / Demand Percent Change April YTD Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

20 Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change April 2011 YTD Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

21 Chain Scales RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change April 2011 YTD RevPAR Room Revenue Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

22 Chain Scale Occupancy Percent Twelve Months Ended April Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

23 Chain Scale Average Daily Rate Twelve Months Ended April $ $ $ $92.04 $73.36 $ Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

24 Luxury ADR Premium Increase On Pace $130 $128 $120 $110 $104 $104 $ Months $96 $ * Luxury ADR Premium Over Upper Upscale ADR, 12 MMA, 1/05 4/11 15 Mo $95

25 Booking Channel Analysis Understanding the Costs and Benefits of All Distribution Channels

26 Demand & Revenue Share by Channel for Chain Hotels All Scales less Independents, Annual 2010 Preliminary Results OTA - Merchant /Retail 4.6 OTA - Opaque 2 Brand.com 17.5 OTA - Merchant /Retail 4.3 OTA - Opaque 1.2 Brand.com 20.2 CRS 12.2 CRS 15.4 Property Direct 54.3 GDS 9.3 Property Direct 46.5 GDS 12.3 Demand Share Revenue Share Combining OTA Merchant/Retail; Prop Direct includes walk-in, group, & deals; Shares vary widely by scale; total numbers are blended; definitions available

27 Channel Demand Share by Scale Channel View Demand Share as percent of Total Demand, Annual 2010 Preliminary Results Luxury Upper Up Upscale Upper Mid Midscale OTA Brand.com CRS GDS Property Direct Brand,com in UpUp & Up, CRS in Lux & UpUp, GDS at top, Prop Direct bottom

28 Channel Revenue Differential Index for Chain Hotels Annual 2010 Preliminary Results Brand.com CRS GDS Property Direct OTA Total Channels relative to Total, assuming ADR at $100, note GDS & Prop Direct

29 Top 15 Markets, Percent of OTA Demand Annual 2010, Combined OTA demand compared to total demand, Chain Hotels Florida Keys Maui Island, HI San Francisco, CA Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA Hawaii-Kauai Islands San Diego, CA Ft Lauderdale, FL Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Oahu Island, HI Seattle, WA San Antonio, TX Orlando, FL Chicago, IL Denver, CO OTA activity higher in leisure and group destinations

30 Bottom 15 Markets, Percent of OTA Demand Annual 2010, metro markets with over 100K annual rooms, Chain Hotels Pittsburgh, PA Albuquerque, NM Jacksonville, FL Louisville, KY Nashville, TN Norfolk, VA Beach, VA Cincinatti, OH Oklahoma, City, OK Charlotte, NC Raleigh-Durham-CH, NC Birmingham, AL Knoxville, TN Greensboro-WS, NC Richmond, VA Memphis, TN Less OTA activity in smaller second tier and southern cities

31 Forecast

32 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators April F 2012F Real GDP +2.8% +2.9% +3.2% CPI +1.6% +2.7% +2.1% Corporate Profits +31.1% +7.5% +6.6% Disp. Personal Income +1.3% +2.5% +2.5% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 8.7% 8.2%

33 Total United States Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year Phase April 2011 April 2010 Difference % Change In Construction 50,335 77,404-27, % Planned Pipeline 272, ,676-17, % Active Pipeline 322, ,080-44, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases

34 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook Scenario (% change vs. Prior Year) 2011P Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios 2011 Low RevPAR Growth Forecast High RevPAR Growth Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

35 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) 2011 Year End Outlook ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Total United States

36 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook Scenario (% change vs. Prior Year) 2012P Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios 2012 Low RevPAR Growth Forecast High RevPAR Growth Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

37 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) 2012 Year End Outlook ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Total United States

38 Total United States Occupancy Percent P P 2012P

39 Total United States Average Daily Rate (In Dollars) P $125 $100 $91.03 $97.82 $ $ $98.18 $98.08 $ $ $75 $ P 2012P

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