National Survey Results 2018 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis

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1 National Survey Results 18 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis October 18 John McLaughlin On the web

2 Part One Political Environment 2

3 Direction: United States Time Series Right Direction Wrong Track

4 Direction: United States Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. 7 East Midwest South West 45 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 74 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 5 88 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 6 88 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree 41 College Graduate 45 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 45 Women R W 4

5 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the polices of President Obama Time Series 70 Continue Change Direction

6 70 0 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the policies of President Obama Continue Obama Policies Change Direction DK/Ref. Cont. Change East Midwest 36 South West 49 Cont. Obama Pols. 0 0 Change Direction 0 0 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 80 8 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 86 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 78 Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat 79 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 78 Hispanic Under Over Married Single 52 Men Women

7 Job Rating: Donald Trump Time Series 70 Approve Disapprove 48 7

8 APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. Job Rating: Donald Trump 2 App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump 0 0 Disapprove Trump 0 0 Approve GOP Majority 90 9 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 97 2 Unfavorable Trump 5 95 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 93 6 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree 48 College Graduate 49 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married 57 Single 58 Men Women

9 Opinion: Donald Trump Time Series 70 Favorable Unfavorable 47 9

10 Opinion: Donald Trump FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO OPIN. 4 Fav. Unfav. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump 94 5 Disapprove Trump 2 95 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 0 0 Unfavorable Trump 0 0 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 87 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 91 7 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 48 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 43 53

11 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2//17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Time Series Democrat Republican Undecided

12 GOP Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. GOP DEM. UND. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 83 7 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 80 Approve GOP Majority 87 3 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 80 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 81 9 Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 42 7 Women

13 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress Time Series 70 Approve Disapprove /17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 13

14 70 0 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 7 App. Disapp. East 57 Midwest 41 South 42 West 42 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 8 85 Approve GOP Majority 0 0 Disapprove GOP Majority 0 0 Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 9 85 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 9 86 Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 46 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single 34 Men Women

15 1/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger government with many services? Time Series 70 Smaller Larger

16 Job Rating: Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger Donald Trump government with many services? Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref. Smaller Larger East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 67 Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 28 Women

17 Part Two Issue Analysis 17

18 Top Priority of President Trump and Congress Time Series 1/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /1 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Con App. 8 s DJT Disapp. Men Women DJT ECONOMIC Creating Jobs Reducing Taxes SECURITY Nat l Sec./Terror Building Wall/Mexico Stop/Mideast Refugees Tear up Iran Nuke Deal REPEAL/REPLACE OBAMACARE D.K./REFUSED

19 Most Important Issue 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. Wo- Men DJT Men CONOMIC Improving the Economy Jobs/Unemployment Wasteful Gov t pending Reduce Budget/Deficit Hold Line/Taxes OCIAL Protect Medicare Reform Healthcare Improving Education ECURITY Fix Immigration Nat l Sec./Terror Defeat/Destroy ISIS ONESTY/ NTEGRITY/D.C K./REFUSED

20 Current Opinion of the U.S. Economy Time Series NOT RECESSION 3/17 4/1 7 5/1 7 8/1 7 /17 11/17 12/17 1/1 8 2/1 8 3/1 8 4/1 8 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /1 8 Re p De m Ind Lib Mo d Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Wo Me me n n Getting Better Getting Worse RECESSION Getting Better Getting Worse D.K./REFUSED GETTING BETTER GETTING WORSE D.K./REFUSED Net Diff

21 Do you approve or disapprove of repealing and replacing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? -Time Series- 70 Approve Disapprove

22 70 0 Do you approve or disapprove of repealing and replacing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? 51 APP Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 7 App. Disapp. East 48 Midwest 41 South 52 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 86 9 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 54 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women

23 Part Three Social Media Usage 23

24 Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? - Time Series- 35 TOTAL Follow/Twitter Like/Facebook Follow/Instagram /17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 24

25 Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? FOLLOW Facebook Twitter Instagram NONE Follow/ Like Trump Not Follow Approve 76% 39% Disapprove 22% 59% Follow None East Midwest South 70 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women

26 From the following list, which social media networks do you use? Tot Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Under 55 Over 55 Men Women Facebook Twitter Instagram Google Pinterest Linked-In Snapchat WhatsApp Reddit Tumblr Periscope Other None

27 18 Likely General Election Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican White 71 Democrat African American 12 Independent Hispanic 11 Ideology Asian 4 Liberal 26 Over 65 Gender Moderate 39 Male 47 Conservative 35 Female 53 27

28 New York Office 566 South Route 3 Blauvelt, NY D.C./Virginia Office 919 Prince Street Alexandria, VA

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