Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018
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1 Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018
2 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies for 2018 and beyond?
3 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 jun-10 oct-10 feb-11 jun-11 oct-11 feb-12 jun-12 oct-12 feb-13 jun-13 oct-13 feb-14 jun-14 oct-14 feb-15 jun-15 oct-15 feb-16 jun-16 oct-16 feb-17 jun-17 oct-17 feb-18 Shock 1: Oil price drop to the lowest level in a decade Brent Price (USD) Nominal Exchange Rate (COP/USD) ,1 $3.500 $ ,8% $3.100 $ ,7% 80 70,4 $2.700 $ $2.300 $ ,9 $1.900 $ $1.500 Source: Bloomberg.
4 20-feb ago feb ago feb ago feb ago feb ago feb ago feb-18 Shock 2: Slow growth of trade peers and financial markets volatility above historical average 5,0 4,0 Non-traditional trade peers GDP growth (Annual growth, %) 4,2 3, VIX (Basis points) 40,74 37,32 3,0 33 2,0 2,2 1,2 1, ,0 0, ,72 0,0 13-1,0-0, p 2018p 8 Source: Bloomberg and IMF.
5 Institutional improvement is key to face external shocks 3. Establishment of solvency and liquidity indicators 9. FTA with U.S.A Independence of the Central Bank Flexibility of the exchange rate 4. Inflation targeting 5. Medium Term Fiscal Framework Implementation 6. Fiscal Rule 7. Investment grade 8. Pacific Alliance FTA with European Union
6 Macroeconomic Adjustment
7 * 2018* In spite of a strong external shock, we have achieved a smooth adjustment in the current account deficit Current Account Balance USD Millions % GDP 0,0 0-1, ,0-3, ,0-3,0-2,9-3,1-3,3-3,6-3, ,0-4,4-5, ,0-7,0-6, Source: DANE, Central Bank. *Estimated data, Ministry of Finance
8 p Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec Macroeconomic fundamentals allowed for greater confidence, boosting foreign investment Gross Foreign Direct Investment (USD Millions) Others Oil and mining Isagen Total Bn COP Foreign Portfolio Investment in Colombian Government Bonds 0 27% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Nominal Balance Foreign Participation (right axis) Source: Central Bank and Ministry of Finance
9 Fiscal deficit: structural and cyclical components (% of GDP) Fiscal Rule Set by the Government -2,8-2,3-2,3 Set by the Fiscal Rule Committee -2,4-2,4-2,3-2,4-2,2-2,2-3,0-1,9-1,9-3,1-1,7-2,2-1,4-1,6-1,3-1,3-1,0-1,0-1,0 Complying with the Fiscal Rule has been key to ensure confidence -4,1-3,9-4,0-3,6 Deficit Structural deficit 9 Source: Fiscal Rule Committee and Ministry of Finance
10 Central Government revenues and expenditures (% of GDP) Revenues Non-Interest Expenditures 15,3 2,8 Non oil revenues Oil revenues Telco s arbitration award 13,8 0,9 15,2 1,6 16,1 16,9 16,7 16,1 2,6 3,3 2,6 1,1 14,9 15,7 15,4 0,47 0,1 0,0 0, ,35 Reserve 12,5 12,9 13,6 13,5 13,5 14,0 15,0 14,8 15,2 14,8 16,4 14,9 15,3 15,9 16,9 16,8 16,6 16,0 16,1 15, Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit
11 Summary of Fiscal Adjustment (% of GDP) Shock Adjustment 2013 vs vs ,4 3,4 2,3% to 2,9% Higher interest payments 0,6 0,7 Increase in fiscal deficit 2,3% to 3,1% 1,4 Reduction in non-interest expenditures 16,9% to 15,5% 3,3% to 0,6% Reduction in oil revenues 2,8 1,3 Increase in non-oil revenues 13,5% to 14,8% 11 Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit
12 Central Government revenues and expenditures (% of GDP) Revenues Non oil revenues Oil revenues Telco s arbitration award 16,9 16,7 16,1 15,7 3,3 2,6 1,1 14,9 15,4 15,6 16,1 16,2 16,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 1,0 0,5 0,1 Expenditures Current expenditures + investment Interest payments Reserve 19,2 19,1 19,2 18,9 19,3 0,3 18,4 17,8 17,7 17,5 17,4 2,3 2,2 2,6 2,9 2,9 2,9 2,9 2,8 2,6 2,5 13,5 14,0 15,0 14,8 15,2 14,8 14,8 15,2 15,3 15,4 16,9 16,8 16,6 16,0 16,1 15,5 15,0 15,0 15,0 15,0 *Does not include reserve owed to fine (0,3% of GDP). 12 Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit
13 Onwards: Fiscal Strategy (% of GDP) 2,0 2,0 0,6 Larger non-oil Revenues Deficit Reduction 0,4 Larger Oil Revenues 0,5 Lower Interests 0,5 Lower Current & Capital Expenditures Source: Ministry of Finance
14 Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 35,4 35,8 35,6 41,1 6,4 42,6 5,4 43,6 43,6 5,6 5,5 Effect of Depreciation since ,9 10,4 32,7 31,5 32,6 2,8 0,5 9,8 8,8 8,9 8,8 9,1 9,2 9,1 8,8 24,5 25,4 22,9 22,7 23,3 24,1 25,5 28,0 28,9 29, p 2018p Moneda Local currency Local Moneda Foreign currency Extranjera Source: Ministry of Finance * 2012: Exchange rate (end of period) = $1.768 COP/USD
15 National Central Government s Debt Strategy Currently, the composition of the Central Government s (GNC) debt is 66.2% in Colombian pesos and 33.8% in foreign currency Our goal is to reach a composition of 70/30 (as in 2011) In 2018, the placement strategy will be 84% in Colombian pesos and 16% in foreign currency, and forward 80/20 With a similar forward strategy (80/20) we expect that in 2021 the debt composition goal of 70/30 will be reached
16 Since 2013, the General Government s liquid assets have been above the historical average, reaching a level of 10.3% of GDP in September 2017 General Government's Liquid Assets (% of GDP) ,7 3,0 6,4 0,9 Average of the last 10 years : 7,9 7,1 6,6 6,4 1,4 0,8 0,8 7,0 0,7 9,1 1,0 10,1 1,3 8,4 2,2 9,0 2,4 10,3 2, ,7 5,5 5,7 5,7 5,6 6,4 8,1 8,8 6,3 6,6 8, * Domestic assets Foreign assets Nota: Liquid assets include: Government deposits in the Central Bank, current accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, bonds, trust funds and foreign portfolios Source: Central Bank, Ministry of Finance *Accumulated to September
17 In the mid-term Colombia will grow above its regional peers 8,0 6,0 Economic growth (y-o-y variation, %) Pacific Alliance Colombia Latin America and the Caribbean 4,0 2,0 3,7 3,0 2,7 0,0-2,0 Source: IMF (WEO), January 2018 Update
18 Less poverty and more employment have strengthened a surging middle class 30,4 Multi-Dimensional Poverty (% of total population) 29,4 27,0 5.1 million people were taken out of poverty since ,8 21,9 20,2 17,8 National Unemployment Rate (Annual Average) 11,8% 10,8% 10,4% 9,6% 3.5 million new jobs created 9,1% 8,9% 9,2% 9,4% Informality Rate 13 main cities* (% of employed, annual average) 57,4 57,0 57,757,957,8 56,8 Informal Formal 2012 Tax Reform: reduction of non-wage labor costs 54,9 53,1 51,9 48,1 46,9 50,4 49,6 50,6 49,4 42,6 43,0 43,2 42,342,142,2 45,1 Nearly 2.5 million new formal jobs created** *Informality according to affiliation to social security - pension Source: DANE
19 2018 has began with good news
20 dic-14 abr-15 ago-15 dic-15 abr-16 ago-16 dic-16 abr-17 ago-17 dic-17 abr-18 ago-18 dic-18 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Inflation is now under control and lower interest rates will boost the economic recovery Annual Inflation Rate (annual growth, %) Interest rate and inflation expectations (%) Target Inflation Range Target Range 9 10% Inflation Expectations 12 months ahead 8 Central Bank Policy Rate 8% ,40 4,09 3,68 3,3 6% 4% 4,5% 3,4% 2 2% 1 0 0% Source: DANE, Central Bank
21 12-jun-17 2-jul jul ago ago sep oct oct nov-17 9-dic dic ene-18 7-feb feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic ene feb-2018 So far, 2018 has shown favorable prices for our export basket, causing an appreciation of the Colombian peso 72 BRENT Crude Oil (USD/Barrel) Average , Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Average , Average , Average ,3 BBB- Rating (S&P) Source: Bloomberg
22 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Jun-09 Feb-10 Oct-10 Jun-11 Feb-12 Oct-12 Jun-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Jun-15 Feb-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Feb-18 Colombia s risk perception reached its lowest level since November 2014, allowing for lower financing rates CDS 5 year Colombia (bps) TES 2024 yield ,7 10,5 9,5 8,5 9,97 8,9 8, , ,2 6, ,5 5,5 4,5 3,5 4,8 6,17 Source: Bloomberg
23 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Confidence is showing an important recovery 35 Industrial Confidence Index (ICI)* 35 Retail Confidence Index (ICCO) , , *With seasonal adjustment Source : Fedesarrollo 23
24 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Confidence is showing an important recovery Consumer confidence index (CCI) Willingness to buy houses (%) ,4 0 1, Source : Fedesarrollo 24
25 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Energy consumption s growth is accelerating. Good figures on non-regulated energy suggests higher demand from the manufacturing sector 8% 6% Energy Demand (Annual growth, %) 12% Regulated and Non-regulated Energy Demand (Annual growth, %) 4% 3,5% 8% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 4% 0% -4% -8% 3,8% 3,1% Regulated Non-Regulated Source : XM
26 dic-13 mar-14 jun-14 sep-14 dic-14 mar-15 jun-15 sep-15 dic-15 mar-16 jun-16 sep-16 dic-16 mar-17 jun-17 sep-17 dic-17 dic-13 mar-14 jun-14 sep-14 dic-14 mar-15 jun-15 sep-15 dic-15 mar-16 jun-16 sep-16 dic-16 mar-17 jun-17 sep-17 dic-17 Colombia s exports had an important dynamism in Non-traditional exports show signs of sustained recovery Total Exports (Monthly USD Million, annual growth, %) Non-Traditional Exports (Monthly USD Million, annual growth, %) Growth 19,0% Growth 4,3% Valor mensual (Millones de USD FOB) Valor mensual (Millones de USD FOB) Variación % anual (eje derecho) Source: Ministry of Finance based on DIAN and DANE 26
27 In 2017 the number of international visitors increased 9.4% Entry of foreigners by plane (Millions of travelers) 2,6 2,3 2,1 1,8 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,8 0,1 0,1 0,2 0, Total Bogotá Cartagena Source: Migración Colombia 27
28 In 2018, significant growth is expected in private investment in infrastructure, particularly in 4G projects Private Investment in Transport Infrastructure (Trillion COP) 16,2% 9,1 7,9 6,4 3,1 3,9 4,3 4,8 4,8 1,9 4,9 7,0 2,6 2,7 2,8 3,5 3,8 3,2 2,1 1, G - 3G Roads 4G Roads Airports Railways Ports Total Private Investment Source: ANI. Forecasts for 2018
29 About Future Growth
30 Higher education levels and the decline of violence show structural change in Colombia 90 Homicide Rate (Homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants) ,5 Source: Ministry of Defense National Police
31 As a consequence of increases in enrollment and public spending in education, average schooling levels have increased among the employed Tertiary Education Enrolment Rates (%) % of Employed by Education Level (annual average) Expenditure on Education and Defense (% of GDP) 37,1 41,7 40,4 45,2 47,8 49,4 51,2 32,0 30,5 28,0 28,4 28,6 29,1 29,2 21,5 21,2 21,6 20,3 18,4 17,6 16,9 3,9% 3,9% 3,7% 3,6% 3,7% 3,6% 3,6% 3,6% 3,6% 3,5% 3,4% 3,4% 3,3% 3,3% High School Tertiary Education Education Defense Source: GEIH DANE, and Ministry of Finance
32 Structural Change 344 ZOMAC Municipalities 4G Projects Source: DANE * Development Programs with Territorial Approach (Programas de Desarrollo de Enfoque Territorial PDET) Source: ANI Ministry of Finance
33 Looking ahead 1. Implementation of the Peace Agreement 2. Fiscal consolidation 3. Pension Reform 4. Diversification and growth of non-traditional exports 5. Successful execution of 4G projects
34 Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018
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