Analyzing indicators for small northern places
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1 ReSDA Workshop No 1 Resources and Sustainable Development in the Arctic Yellowknife NWT, September Analyzing indicators for small northern places Larry Hamilton Department of Sociology University of New Hampshire Larry.Hamilton@UNH.edu
2 Indicators for what? Detection. Did something change? By how much, and in what direction? When did this happen? Who did it affect? Attribution. Why did the change occur? Is there evidence to rule out some alternative explanations, or test hypotheses about a particular cause?
3 Analytically rich data Time series of key indicators collected by governments, health or education agencies, preferably at the level of individual communities. E.g., village population and net migration. Surveys for example of opinion, behavior, quality of life topics, conducted with representative samples at several times.
4 Infant mortality rates vs. teenage birth rates, averaged over for 27 Alaska boroughs (r =.7) Infant mortality/1000 live births Yukon-K Wales-Ketchikan Lake & Pen Nome Wade Hampton NW Arctic Bethel North Slope Dillingham Births/1000 females 15-19
5 Infant mortality for NW Alaska compared with all Alaska. Statistical uncertainty is high for smaller populations. Infant mortality rate NW Arctic all Alaska Year
6 Population dynamics in Arctic Alaska: Graphical views of community change
7 Population dynamics in Arctic Alaska: Graphical views of community change Population Ambler, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Year Births and deaths
8 Population changes in four NW Arctic villages show wide variations among neighboring places. Selawik, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Ambler, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Population Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Births and deaths Population Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Births and deaths Year Year Deering, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Buckland, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Population Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Births and deaths Population Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Births and deaths Year Year
9 Observed (squares) and model predicted electricity use in 9 Alaska towns and villages Barrow Kotzebue Nome kwh predicted (dashed curves) Bethel Shishmaref Atqasuk Togiak Kivalina Dillingham kwh sold (squares) Year
10 Community and Environment in Rural America (CERA) surveys by Carsey Institute, UNH Random-sample telephone surveys in rural areas of the US. About 100 questions concerning local community, environment, and individual characteristics. Core CERA questions + specific local issues More than 10,000 interviews conducted in selected rural areas In , a new round of CERA surveys included 1,500 in Southeast Alaska.
11 Use or conserve resources? For the future of your community, do you think it is more important to use natural resources to create jobs, or to conserve natural resources for future generations or don t you have an opinion on this? 1 Use natural resources to create jobs 2 Conserve natural resources for the future 3 Creating jobs and conserving resources are both equally important 98 Don't know 99 No answer / Refused
12 Conserve resources for the future? Haines Borough, AK Hoonah-Angoon CA, AK Juneau Borough, AK 42 Ketchikan Gateway, AK Petersburg CA, AK Prince of Wales, AK Sitka Borough, AK 37 Skagway Borough, AK 46 Wrangell Borough, AK 15 Yakutat Borough, AK Weighted percent graph: L Hamilton 6/12/2011 data: CERA SE Alaska regions 2011 (n = 11 to 500)
13 Believe climate changing due to humans? Appalachia KY 43 Columbia OR/WA 49 Downeast ME Gulf Coast FL 36 Gulf Coast LA 40 North VT/NH/ME 56 Olympic WA 49 SE Alaska 1 41 SE Alaska Weighted percent graph: L Hamilton 6/12/2011 data: CERA regional surveys (n = 500 to 1,800 each)
14 Believe climate changing due to humans? Haines Borough, AK Hoonah-Angoon CA, AK Juneau Borough, AK 58 Ketchikan Gateway, AK 37 Petersburg CA, AK 48 Prince of Wales, AK 55 Sitka Borough, AK 51 Skagway Borough, AK 47 Wrangell Borough, AK 37 Yakutat Borough, AK Weighted percent graph: L Hamilton 6/12/2011 data: CERA SE Alaska regions 2011 (n = 11 to 500)
15 Believe climate changing due to humans? Haines Borough Hoonah-Angoon CA Juneau Borough Ketchikan Gateway Petersburg CA Prince of Wales Sitka Borough Skagway Borough Wrangell Borough Yakutat Borough Weighted percent Democrat Republican graph: L Hamilton 6/21/2011
16 Survey analysis at different scales Believe climate changing due to humans? Variation across geographical regions Variation across places within the same region Appalachia KY Columbia OR/WA Downeast ME Gulf Coast FL Gulf Coast LA North VT/NH/ME Olympic WA SE Alaska 1 SE Alaska 2 Haines Borough, AK Hoonah-Angoon CA, AK Juneau Borough, AK Ketchikan Gateway, AK Petersburg CA, AK Prince of Wales, AK Sitka Borough, AK Skagway Borough, AK Wrangell Borough, AK Yakutat Borough, AK Weighted percent graph: L Hamilton 6/12/2011 data: CERA regional surveys (n = 500 to 1,800 each) Believe climate changing due to humans? Variation across individuals within the same places Haines Borough Hoonah-Angoon CA Juneau Borough Ketchikan Gateway Petersburg CA Prince of Wales Sitka Borough Skagway Borough Wrangell Borough Yakutat Borough Weighted percent graph: L Hamilton 6/12/2011 data: CERA SE Alaska regions 2011 (n = 11 to 500) Believe climate changing due to humans? Weighted percent Democrat Republican graph: L Hamilton 6/21/2011
17 Questions?
18 Population Ambler, Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Vertical lines show estimated net migration effects Year Births and deaths
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