Curves of Interestingness

Transcription

1 Curves of Interestingness On Breathing Life Into Data Amanda Cox / amanda.cox@gmail.com Graphics Editor The New York Times

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3 Curves of interestingness Agate? The current assumption?? How much you care about data Know-it-all cave How much you know about something If it was to come to life, this cleaver-sharp science project would need the rounding influence of storytelling. Joshua Wolf Shenk, The Atlantic, June 2009

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5 DEFINING A BUSINESS CYCLE Business cycles have four parts: an expansion, a slowdown, a downturn and a recovery. (Another version has only two parts: an expansion and a recession.) An entire cycle generally lasts 2 to 10 years. METRICS AMANDA COX Turning a Corner? READING THE CIRCULAR CHART The chart at right shows industrial production in two ways: the amount produced compared with a long-term trend and whether it is rising or falling. Together, these two variables define a cycle. Industrial production Index = Trend Recession Oct Jan. 91 Oct Dec Jan Dec Nov Downturn HE economy lost 467,000 jobs in Organization for Economic Cooperation June, a deeply discouraging number Slowdown Expansion Tsuggested the recession may be ending. on data from manufacturers, miners But economic turning points are and utility companies. (In the United notoriously hard to identify, especially States, industry s share of the economy when a parade of data can seem to has fallen to about 20 percent, but it still contradict itself. After the 2001 recession, moves roughly in step with the economy CHANGE IN LAST 20 months passed before the National as a whole.) SIX MONTHS Bureau of Economic Research officially The chart, explained below, currently Falling suggests that the economy is poised to determined its endpoint. To get a feeling for how cycles turn around, but that the climb out will be are evolving, economists at the a long one. Nov Slowdown Downturn What business cycles look like Expansion Recovery March 75 April 09 May Nov. 82 July 75 AMOUNT PRODUCED Above trend AMOUNT PRODUCED Below trend Oct. 73 START July 69 Sept. 75 Oct. 71 Recovery CHANGE IN LAST SIX MONTHS Rising Taming the swings A period of blips and one giant fall Signals that a recession is ending What leading indicators say In the 1970s, cycles were volatile, marked by wild swings. But by the mid-1980s, a period known as the Great Moderation had taken hold. With computers helping businesses manage their inventories, policy makers paying more attention to inflation and perhaps just some good luck, cycles were mild and recessions were shallow. Growth was weak earlier in this decade, but the economy appeared to be much more resilient. There were soft patches when the economy looked as if it were headed into a downturn, but it would then recover. In the last year, however, industrial production has fallen 13 percent, its deepest downturn since the end of World War II. This chart shows industrial production during the last seven recessions, and in the following six months. In each case, the recession ended around the time industrial production turned toward recovery. Because the pace of the current slowdown has leveled off, the economy appears to be close to that turning point. While industrial production is thought to move with the economy, other indicators like consumer confidence, the length of the manufacturing workweek and interest rate spreads generally turn before the economy does. These indicators provide a preview of where the economy might be in a few months. Volatile cycle 1971 to 1975 Most recently May 2004 to 2009 Dec. 07 Mini recessions Recession 6 months after end SLUG SECTION SIZE ORIGIN DATE May 04 Mild cycle 1987 to 1991 May 09 May 09 Feb. O.E.C.D. leading indicators May* * New York Times estimate based on available data Bac Co Dan Tim Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; Federal Reserve; National Bureau of Economic Research; Conference Board, via Haver Analytics THE NEW YORK TIMES

6 Placing Justices on an Ideological Line Professors at Washington University in St. Louis and Harvard have used the voting behavior of Supreme Court justices to understand the differences among them and how they change over time. Their research shows Justice David H. Souter, who was appointed by President George Bush in 1990, moving toward the liberal side of the court around 1992, when he disappointed conservatives in a 5-to-4 decision that reaffirmed the constitutional right to abortion. Thomas Scalia MORE CONSERVATIVE Burger Rehnquist Roberts Alito Powell White Kennedy O Connor ESTIMATED IDEOLOGY Souter Ginsburg Breyer Blackmun MORE LIBERAL Stevens Brennan Marshall Term beginning in Oct Source: Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis and Kevin M. Quinn, Harvard ( Larger-Than-Expected Deficit Forecasts THE NEW YORK TIMES Last February, President George W. Bush s budget predicted a surplus by PAST ESTIMATES SURPLUS OR DEFICIT IN TODAY S DOLLARS SURPLUS DEFICIT 500 billion President Ronald Reagan s estimates criticized as too rosy at the time remained largely unchanged for much of his tenure. President Bill Clinton s early budgets did not predict the surpluses from 1998 to 2001, when rising incomes and a booming stock market increased tax revenues. 1,000 1,500 HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS Mr. Obama aims to shrink the annual deficit to $533 billion by the end of his term. But 80 percent of past four-year projections have been too optimistic, off by $270 billion, on average. 78 Carter 82 Reagan 86 Source: Office of Management and Budget 90 Bush 94 Clinton est. 02 Bush 06 Obama s 2010 proposal 10 Obama THE NEW YORK TIMES

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10 Sources for graphics, Census Bureau 852 B.L.S. 844 World Bank 118 O.E.C.D. 52