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1 N o. 1 R A T E D B E T T N F L I N G C o l l e g e N B A Every Week: s t a t f o x. c o m b e s t B e t s t o p w e e k l y p i c k s e x c l u s i v e p o w e r r a t i n g s H a n d i c a p p i n g s y s t e m s s u p e r s i t u a t i o n s G U h e a d - t o - h e a d t r e n d s I D E P l at i n u m S h e e t! I s s u e 1 4 NOV Dec. 3, 2012

2 STATFOX BRIAN ON FIRE: 68% ATS ON NFL Best Bets IN 2012! to get his week 13 picks! T h e P l at i n u m S h e e t I s s u e # 1 4 N OV e m b e r 2 7 D e c e m b e r 3, NFL Power Rating Lines 2 NFL Best Bets / Staff Selections 3 NFL Outplay Factor Rating Lines 3 NFL Thursday Night Game Breakdown 4 NFL Sunday Game Breakdowns 4 Super Situations 5 Situational Team Power Trends 7 NFL Monday Night Game Breakdown 9 College Football Featured Matchups 10 NFL Power Rating Lines - Week 13 ** The Power Ratings are determined from a formula that is takes into account several key factors, including point margins, difficulty of schedule, team statistics and more. The ratings are typically not as reactive as those you will find elsewhere, and thus prove to be a great long term handicapping tool. Here are the Power Rating lines and edges for this week's games, with our exclusive home field advantage points built into each home team's rating and corresponding line. Note that the point edge between the Power Rating Line and the actual opening line is denoted for the team with the edge. Use the W/L column to keep track of the winners and losers. Thu - 11/29,8:20 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 301 NEW ORLEANS ATLANTA SAN FRANCISCO ST LOUIS INDIANAPOLIS DETROIT HOUSTON TENNESSEE 16 Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 361 CLEVELAND OAKLAND 11 Mon - 12/3,8:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 367 NY GIANTS WASHINGTON pk 21 TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES: 339 SEATTLE CHICAGO ARIZONA NY JETS JACKSONVILLE BUFFALO Sun - 12/2,4:05 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 357 TAMPA BAY DENVER Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 363 CINCINNATI SAN DIEGO pk NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over MIAMI NY GIANTS (pk) over WASHINGTON 9 3. HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE 7.5 Managing Editor Scott Gramling Contributing Editors Dave Bartman Gary Bennett Brian Graham Executive Editor Jeff Makinen Creative Director Ian Knowles Editorial Direction 10Ten Media Daily Racing Form LLC Jim Kostas, President Duke Dosik, VP Custom Publishing Todd Unger, President of SIG Digital Jacob Luft, Programming Manager is published by Daily Racing Form LLC, 708 Third Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY All rights reserved. Daily Racing Form LLC reserves the right to deny any paid advertisements and is not responsible for any contracts entered in with such advertisers. S u b s c r i p t i o n s : ABBREVIATIONS: OL - Opening Line PR - Power Rating - adjusted for home field advantage. PRL - Calculated Power Rating Line 341 MINNESOTA GREEN BAY CAROLINA KANSAS CITY NEW ENGLAND MIAMI 20 Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 359 PITTSBURGH BALTIMORE 30-7 Sun - 12/2,8:20 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 365 PHILADELPHIA DALLAS 22-6 S t a t Fox B r i a n A featured writer on Stat- Fox.com and for Platinum Sheet, Brian has yet to suffer a losing season of Platinum Sheet Best Bets in either college football, NFL, college basketball or NBA since coming on board in Brian was 4-2 ATS in football Best Bets this week, improving to ATS (62%) for the season, including 68% ( ATS) in NFL Best Bets. S t a t Fox D ave Dave is one of the original four founders of and over the years has been renowned for his handicapping prowess in all sports. Dave continues to profit in his football picks, especially in college where he s 58% ATS in all 207 featured games this year. He is just as good (58% ATS) in college football Best Bets with a current string of six straight weeks of going 50% ATS or better. G ary Gary joined the and the Platinum Sheet staff prior to the 2010 football season, and subscribers were certainly happy he did: He proceeded to post a 55% success rate on NFL Best Bets in his rookie season. Gary is 50% ATS or better in all four Best Bets, going 60% ATS (12-8-2) in NBA, 57% ATS (13-10) in CBB, 55% ATS (22-18) in CFB and 50% ATS ( ) in NFL for a combined 55% ATS. S t a t Fox S co t t Scott serves as Managing Editor for Stat- Fox, Platinum Sheet and the Edge Football Preview Guide, and is coming off two straight profitable college football seasons, winning a whopping 59% of his games ATS in 2010 followed by 53% ATS in Scott is a profitable 60% ATS in NBA Best Bets and has sizzled in Totals all year, going 29-9 (76%) in NBA and (60%) in NFL this season. 2

3 T h e P l at i n u m S h e e t p r e s e n t s t h e w e e k s Sta f f P i c k s Week 13 NFL Matchups: NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 3 dave GARY SCOTT BRIAN forecaster consensus (301) NEW ORLEANS at (302) ATLANTA -3½ ATLANTA BEST BET * ATLANTA NEW ORLEANS ATLANTA ATLANTA (339) SEATTLE at (340) CHICAGO -3½ CHICAGO CHICAGO BEST BET * BEST BET * SEATTLE (341) MINNESOTA at (342) GREEN BAY -9 GREEN BAY MINNESOTA MINNESOTA GREEN BAY MINNESOTA MINNESOTA (343) SAN FRANCISCO at (344) ST. LOUIS +6½ ST. LOUIS ST. LOUIS SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO (345) ARIZONA at (346) NEW YORK JETS -3½ BEST BET * NEW YORK JETS NEW YORK JETS NEW YORK JETS ARIZONA NEW YORK JETS (347) CAROLINA at (348) KANSAS CITY PK BEST BET * BEST BET * KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY CAROLINA (349) INDIANAPOLIS at (350) DETROIT -4½ DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT (351) JACKSONVILLE at (352) BUFFALO -6 BEST BET * JACKSONVILLE BUFFALO BUFFALO BUFFALO BUFFALO (353) NEW ENGLAND at (354) MIAMI +7 NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND MIAMI MIAMI NEW ENGLAND (355) HOUSTON at (356) TENNESSEE +4½ BEST BET * TENNESSEE BEST BET * HOUSTON HOUSTON (357) TAMPA BAY at (358) DENVER -6½ DENVER DENVER BEST BET * TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY (359) PITTSBURGH at (360) BALTIMORE NL PITTSBURGH QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER IS QUESTIONABLE WITH A SHOULDER INJURY (361) CLEVELAND at (362) OAKLAND -1½ CLEVELAND OAKLAND OAKLAND BEST BET * CLEVELAND (363) CINCINNATI at (364) SAN DIEGO -1 CINCINNATI SAN DIEGO BEST BET * CINCINNATI SAN DIEGO (365) PHILADELPHIA at (366) DALLAS -7½ BEST BET * PHILADELPHIA PHILADELPHIA PHILADELPHIA PHILADELPHIA PHILADELPHIA (367) NEW YORK GIANTS at (368) WASHINGTON +2½ NEW YORK GIANTS WASHINGTON WASHINGTON BEST BET * WASHINGTON WASHINGTON Statfox NFL Outplay Factor Rating Lines - Week 13 ** The Outplay Factor Ratings made famous by are a great Team Strength Indicator as they provide a quantitative measure of how teams are outplaying (+ value) or being outplayed by (- value) their opponents. They are determined by a complicated formula that takes into account a team's points for/against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared. Here are the Team Outplay Factor Ratings and the corresponding game lines derived from them. Note that the point edge between the Outplay Factor Rating Line and the actual opening line is denoted for the team with the edge. Use the W/L column to keep track of the winners and losers. ABBREVIATIONS: OL - Opening Line OF - Outplay Factor Rating - adjusted for home field advantage. OFL - Calculated Outplay Factor Line Thu - 11/29,8:20 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 301 NEW ORLEANS SEATTLE ATLANTA CHICAGO Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 343 SAN FRANCISCO ARIZONA ST LOUIS NY JETS Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 349 INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE DETROIT BUFFALO Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 12/2,4:05 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 355 HOUSTON TAMPA BAY TENNESSEE DENVER Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 361 CLEVELAND CINCINNATI OAKLAND SAN DIEGO pk 22 Mon - 12/3,8:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 367 NY GIANTS WASHINGTON pk 22 TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES: 1. NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over MIAMI HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE NY GIANTS (pk) over WASHINGTON 8 Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 341 MINNESOTA GREEN BAY Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 347 CAROLINA KANSAS CITY 12 Sun - 12/2,1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 353 NEW ENGLAND MIAMI 16 Sun - 12/2,4:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 359 PITTSBURGH BALTIMORE 30-9 Sun - 12/2,8:20 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 365 PHILADELPHIA DALLAS Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet. Our popular FoxSheets are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. Log on to FoxSheets.com and start winning today! NFL STAFF PICKs STANDINGS * All Games W L T Pct Last Week Scott % Consensus % Forecaster % Brian % Gary % Dave % NFL Best Bets (ATS) W L T Pct Last Week Brian % Gary % Dave % Scott % TOTAL % * [Standings reflect games played through Monday, November 26.] 3

4 NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 13 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ATLANTA FALCONS (-3½) (301) NEW ORLEANS (SU: 5-6, ATS: 6-5) at (302) ATLANTA (SU: 10-1, ATS: 6-4) NEW ORLEANS (4.2) (7.2) (6.2) (5.0) (8.2) (6.7) ATLANTA (3.6) (7.6) (6.1) (4.8) (7.0) (5.9) Game Breakdown: The Falcons have a chance to avenge their only loss of the season, but they haven t been particularly sharp at home. Atlanta is 5-0 SU but only 2-3 ATS at home, and haven t won a game by more than six points in their own building. These teams played a very even game in New Orleans in Week 10, a Saints win, with the Falcons outgaining New Orleans and each team turning it over once. Atlanta had a chance to win it late, but couldn t score in a goal-to-go situation. It was the Saints fourth straight victory, SU and ATS, over the Falcons. They ve won by a field goal in their last two trips to Atlanta. NEW ORLEANS 25 ATLANTA 29 Road underdogs or pick - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games. (36-12 ATS) Play = NEW ORLEANS against the spread ATLANTA is 5-6 ATS (2-9 SU). NEW ORLEANS (2-3 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.) Six Pack: ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS at home after 2 or more consecutive wins since ATLANTA is ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since ATLANTA is 11-1 UNDER after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS. poor pass def. - allowing cmp. pct. of 61+ in 2nd half of season over L2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS. poor def. - allowing yds/play in 2nd half of season over L2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 ATS in the 2nd half of season over the L2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS BUFFALO BILLS (-6) (351) JACKSONVILLE (SU: 2-9, ATS: 5-5) at (352) BUFFALO (SU: 4-7, ATS: 5-6) JACKSONVILLE (3.6) (6.0) (5.0) (4.1) (7.3) (5.8) BUFFALO (5.2) (6.4) (5.9) (5.0) (6.9) (6.0) Game Breakdown: The Jaguars continue to look like a different team since going with veteran QB Chad Henne as their starter. After pushing the Texans to overtime in Houston, they scored their first home win of the season last week, over the Titans. Henne was 17-for-26 for 261 yards, 2 TDs and an INT in the win, but did take seven sacks. The Bills have been burned by their special teams of late, allowing return TDs each of the past two weeks. They would like to ride their running backs, but last week in Indy were forced to go to the air in a comeback attempt. JACKSONVILLE 19 BUFFALO 28 Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games. (39-78 ATS) Play = JACKSONVILLE against the spread BUFFALO is 2-2 ATS (1-3 SU). JACKSONVILLE (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) Six Pack: BUFFALO is ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since BUFFALO is ATS at home in weeks 10 through 13 since BUFFALO is 10-2 ATS at home. bad def. teams, giving up 24+ PPG in 2nd half of season since JACKSONVILLE is 11-2 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 ATS. poor teams - outscored by 6+ PPG on the season over L3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 11-2 UNDER away after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since SEATTLE SEAHAWKS CHICAGO BEARS (-3½) (339) SEATTLE (SU: 6-5, ATS: 7-4) at (340) CHICAGO (SU: 8-3, ATS: 6-5) SEATTLE (4.2) (7.0) (5.4) (4.6) (5.8) (5.3) CHICAGO (4.1) (5.9) (5.0) (4.3) (5.6) (5.2) Game Breakdown: Seattle continues to search for a quality road performance. They re just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from home, and despite an extra week of rest before heading to Miami last week they were sluggish and sloppy, committing 10 penalties in the three-point loss. The Bears got back on track with Jay Cutler returning to the lineup. They re 5-0 SU and ATS in home games that Cutler started and finished. They ll try to overwhelm rookie QB Russell Wilson. Chicago took it away three times in an easy win over Minnesota, but had six starters banged up in the victory. They ve forced 18 turnovers in six home games. SEATTLE 17 CHICAGO 19 Home teams - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. (24-4 ATS) Play = CHICAGO against the spread CHICAGO is 2-3 ATS (2-3 SU). SEATTLE (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU at home.) Six Pack: CHICAGO is ATS at home. good pass teams with cmp. pct. of 61+ in 2nd half of season since CHICAGO is ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since CHICAGO is UNDER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since SEATTLE is 15-4 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons. SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L2 seasons. SEATTLE is 14-1 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons. 4

5 w w w..c o m INDIANAPOLIS COLTS DETROIT LIONS (-4½) (349) INDIANAPOLIS (SU: 7-4, ATS: 7-4) at (350) DETROIT (SU: 4-7, ATS: 4-6) INDIANAPOLIS (3.9) (6.8) (5.6) (4.8) (7.0) (6.1) DETROIT (4.2) (6.9) (5.9) (4.6) (6.4) (5.5) Game Breakdown: The Lions came close to getting things turned around last week, playing one of their best games of the year but falling to the Texans in overtime while being victimized by a blown call on a Houston TD. They ll also have some extra time to prepare for rookie QB Andrew Luck, who has been much better at home than on the road (65.4 passer rating, 4 TD, 10 INTs). The Colts bounced back from a blowout loss at New England to beat Buffalo at home last week, thanks largely to another strong game from rookie slot receiver T.Y. Hilton (punt return at receiving TDs). INDIANAPOLIS 21 DETROIT 27 Road teams - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. (31-71 ATS) Play = DETROIT against the spread DETROIT is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU). INDIANAPOLIS (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: DETROIT is 0-8 ATS playing against a team with winning record in 2nd half of season over L2 seasons. DETROIT is 1-9 ATS. poor def. teams - allowing 350+ YPG in 2nd half of season over the L3 seasons. DETROIT is ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season. INDIANAPOLIS is 14-3 OVER away after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since INDIANAPOLIS is OVER away. mistake prone teams penalty yards per game since MINNESOTA VIKINGS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) (341) MINNESOTA (SU: 6-5, ATS: 5-5) at (342) GREEN BAY (SU: 7-4, ATS: 5-6) MINNESOTA (5.2) (5.7) (5.5) (3.8) (6.2) (5.2) GREEN BAY (3.8) (7.0) (5.6) (4.1) (6.4) (5.5) Game Breakdown: The Packers have won four in a row SU over Minnesota (3-1 ATS), but they enter this game with some issues. Their patchwork offensive line kept them from getting anything going in the passing game in last week s lopsided loss to the Giants. And Minnesota has the same type of strength on the defensive line. The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, including three straight double-digit losses. They lost 45-7 at Lambeau Field a year ago, with QB Christian Ponder going 16-for-34 for just 190 yards. MINNESOTA 22 GREEN BAY 24 Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (18-53 ATS) Play = MINNESOTA against the spread GREEN BAY is 7-3 ATS (7-3 SU). MINNESOTA (4-1 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.) Six Pack: GREEN BAY is 14-3 OVER at home against conference opponents over the L3 seasons. GREEN BAY is 19-5 OVER after allowing 35 points or more last game since GREEN BAY is 15-5 OVER in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons. MINNESOTA is OVER away after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since MINNESOTA is OVER away. division opponents since MINNESOTA is OVER after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since super situations Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.). Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The situation s record is 23-3 over the last 10 seasons (88.5%, units). Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. The situation s record is since 1983 (74.6%, units). *** Play On - Home teams (CHI- CAGO) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. The situation s record is 24-4 since 1983 (85.7%, units). *** *** 5

6 NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 13 HOUSTON TEXANS (-4½) TENNESSEE TITANS (355) HOUSTON (SU: 10-1, ATS: 7-3) at (356) TENNESSEE (SU: 4-7, ATS: 4-7) HOUSTON (4.2) (7.2) (5.7) (4.0) (6.1) (5.3) TENNESSEE (4.7) (6.2) (5.5) (4.3) (7.5) (6.0) Game Breakdown: The Texans have looked vulnerable since a gutsy win in Chicago three weeks ago. They needed overtime to beat the Jaguars at home, then went OT at Detroit. They were by far the two worst defensive performances of their season, as they allowed 34.0 PPG and yards of offense/game. The Titans are coming off a road loss to a Jacksonville team that hadn t won at home all season. QB Jake Locker has not been sharp since his return to the lineup after a shoulder injury, completing just 52.3% of his throws over two games. HOUSTON 30 TENNESSEE 21 Road teams - in conference games, after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (33-9 ATS) Play = HOUSTON against the spread TENNESSEE is 5-6 ATS (6-5 SU). HOUSTON (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.) Six Pack: TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS. division opponents over the L2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 12-1 OVER. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD s per game since TENNESSEE is 9-1 UNDER in weeks 10 through 13 over the L3 seasons. HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the L2 seasons. HOUSTON is 18-5 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons. HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game over the L2 seasons. CAROLINA PANTHERS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (PK) (347) CAROLINA (SU: 2-8, ATS: 4-6) at (348) KANSAS CITY (SU: 1-10, ATS: 4-7) CAROLINA (thru Wk 11) (4.0) (7.4) (5.9) (4.2) (6.5) (5.5) KANSAS CITY (4.6) (5.8) (5.2) (4.5) (7.9) (6.2) Game Breakdown: The Chiefs will have to hope the Panthers play sloppy in this one, as K.C. has all but given up on getting the ball into the end zone. They ve turned the offense over to QB Brady Quinn, who has yet to lead a TD drive this season. K.C. hasn t found the end zone in the last 11 quarters as they turn to an ultra conservative, ball-control offense in an attempt to limit turnovers (they have only one turnover in each of the past three games). But they managed to cover the spread in two of those games. Carolina is 3-2 SU and ATS against the AFC in the Cam Newton era. CAROLINA 22 KANSAS CITY 19 Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. (5-26 ATS) Play = CAROLINA against the spread KANSAS CITY is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU). CAROLINA (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: KANSAS CITY is 10-0 UNDER. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing YPA over the L2 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 11-1 UNDER. good offensive teams - averaging yards/play over the L2 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER in weeks 10 through 13 over the L2 seasons. CAROLINA is ATS. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more PPG since CAROLINA is ATS. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less PPG since CAROLINA is ATS. teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of season since SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-6½) ST. LOUIS RAMS (343) SAN FRANCISCO (SU: 8-2-1, ATS: 7-4) at (344) ST LOUIS (SU: 4-6-1, ATS: 7-4) SAN FRANCISCO (5.4) (7.6) (6.5) (3.6) (5.5) (4.7) ST LOUIS (4.4) (6.6) (5.6) (4.0) (6.6) (5.5) Game Breakdown: The Niners are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, and their last three road games have been double-digit wins. QB Colin Kaepernick has added a new dimension to their offense, as opponents need to respect his running ability as they do with Robert Griffin III. Kaepernick has a passer rating in his two starts. The Rams are coming off a road win in Arizona, taking advantage of the atrocious play of rookie QB Ryan Lindley. These teams played to a tie in San Francisco in Week 10, with the Rams outgaining San Fran The health of Danny Amendola (foot), who had 11 catches for 102 yards in the first meeting, will be big. SAN FRANCISCO 24 ST. LOUIS 17 Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - off 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent off 3 or more consecutive overs. (37-11 Over) Play = Over the total ST LOUIS is 6-5 ATS (2-8 SU). SAN FRANCISCO (3-2 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.) Six Pack: ST LOUIS is ATS. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since ST LOUIS is 14-3 ATS at home. good off. teams - averaging yds/play in 2nd half of season since ST LOUIS is ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 19-9 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons. 6

7 w w w..c o m NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) MIAMI DOLPHINS (353) NEW ENGLAND (SU: 8-3, ATS: 7-4) at (354) MIAMI (SU: 5-6, ATS: 5-5) NEW ENGLAND (4.3) (7.6) (6.0) (3.9) (7.6) (6.1) MIAMI (3.9) (6.7) (5.4) (3.7) (6.7) (5.5) Game Breakdown: The Patriots have rung up 108 points over the past two weeks. They have a chance to make it five SU wins in a row over Miami, though their last meeting Christmas Eve in New England, a Pats win was a close one. The Matt Mooreto-Brandon Marshall connection burned them, though neither will be involved in this year s game. The Dolphins snapped a threegame losing skid by beating Seattle at home last week, gaining an impressive 435 yards of offense against a top-notch defense. As good as New England has played offensively of late, their defense has allowed 400 yards in three straight weeks. NEW ENGLAND 25 MIAMI 22 Road teams - mistake-free team (<=1.25 TO/game committed). team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. (23-4 ATS) Play = NEW ENGLAND ATS MIAMI is 5-5 ATS (2-8 SU). NEW ENGLAND (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.) Six Pack: MIAMI is UNDER. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since MIAMI is UNDER. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the 2nd half of season since MIAMI is 14-4 UNDER after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 16-1 OVER. division opponents over the L3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 21-2 OVER after 2 consecutive games with TO margin of +1 or better over L3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 OVER after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game over L2 seasons. ARIZONA CARDINALS NEW YORK JETS (-3½) (345) ARIZONA (SU: 4-7, ATS: 4-7) at (346) NY JETS (SU: 4-7, ATS: 5-5) ARIZONA (3.6) (5.3) (4.7) (4.2) (6.5) (5.4) NY JETS (3.7) (6.2) (5.1) (4.4) (6.6) (5.4) Game Breakdown: Both these teams enter this game with major question marks. The Jets suffered an embarrassing Thanksgiving night home loss to rival New England, turning it over five times in a loss. They re just 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) at home this season, and overall they ve dropped four of five SU and three of four ATS. The Cardinals gave QB Ryan Lindley his first career start last week, and the rookie was a disaster, throwing four INTs including a couple of pick sixes. He ll likely get another start in this game. The Cardinals are 2-1 SU against the AFC East this year, with wins at New England and home over Miami. ARIZONA 17 NY JETS 21 Home teams where the total is points - after having lost 4 of last 5 games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season. (39-13 Under) Play = Under the total NY JETS is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU). ARIZONA (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: NY JETS are 16-3 ATS at home off a home loss since NY JETS are 18-4 UNDER at home after allowing 400+ total yards in their previous game since NY JETS are 14-2 UNDER after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since ARIZONA is ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since ARIZONA is ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since Ken Whisenhunt is 0-7 ATS away in December games. SITUATIONAL team power trends The Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.) NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 33.8, OPPONENT PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS **** WASHINGTON is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since The average score was WASHINGTON 28.3, OPPONENT PLAY ON WASHINGTON **** SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 21.3, OPPONENT PLAY ON SEATTLE *** 7

8 NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 13 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS DENVER BRONCOS (-6½) (357) TAMPA BAY (SU: 6-5, ATS: 8-2) at (358) DENVER (SU: 8-3, ATS: 6-4) TAMPA BAY (4.5) (7.7) (6.2) (3.4) (8.1) (6.3) DENVER (3.9) (7.7) (6.1) (3.6) (5.8) (4.9) Game Breakdown: The Broncos are in search of their seventh SU win in a row, though they ve failed to cover in their past two games. Both these teams have red-hot quarterbacks. Peyton Manning has a passer rating and a 13-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his five home starts, and the running game didn t miss a beat with Willis McGahee out, as Knowshon Moreno ran for 85 yards on 20 carries at K.C. For the Cubs, Josh Freeman has a passer rating and 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio over Tampa s last seven games, but the Bucs defense hasn t held up of late. They ve allowed 400-plus yards of offense in three of their past four and four of their past six games. TAMPA BAY 23 DENVER 28 Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (55-19 Over) Play = Over the total DENVER is 0-1 ATS (1-0 SU). TAMPA BAY (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: DENVER is 14-2 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons. DENVER is 13-3 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the L3 seasons. DENVER is OVER. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yds/ret in 2nd half of season since TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS in all lined games this season. CINCINNATI BENGALS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-1) (363) CINCINNATI (SU: 6-5, ATS: 5-5) at (364) SAN DIEGO (SU: 4-7, ATS: 4-6) CINCINNATI (4.2) (7.2) (5.9) (4.4) (6.4) (5.5) SAN DIEGO (3.8) (6.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.7) (5.5) Game Breakdown: The Chargers snatched a defeat from the jaws of certain victory in losing their third in a row on Sunday (failing to stop Baltimore on a 4th-and-29 that would have ended the game). Their defense has played relatively well overall, holding three of their last five opponents under 300 yards of offense, but they continue to have lapses at all the wrong times, and the Chargers no longer have the offense to carry them. The Bengals have won three in a row and have found some balance on offense after relying heavily on WR A.J. Green, as RB BenJarvus Green- Ellis has had back-to-back 100-yard games. CINCINNATI 22 SAN DIEGO 23 All teams where the line is +3 to -3 - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential). an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. (23-3 ATS) Play = CINCINNATI ATS SAN DIEGO is 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU). CINCINNATI (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the L2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the L3 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 10-1 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS. poor passing def. - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the L2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 20-7 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since CINCINNATI is 14-4 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since PITTSBURGH STEELERS BALTIMORE RAVENS (359) PITTSBURGH (SU: 6-5, ATS: 4-6) at (360) BALTIMORE (SU: 9-2, ATS: 5-5) PITTSBURGH (3.8) (6.5) (5.3) (3.7) (5.5) (4.7) BALTIMORE (4.0) (6.8) (5.7) (4.0) (6.5) (5.4) Game Breakdown: The Steelers continue to go nowhere since Ben Roethlisberger went down. They stayed close with the Ravens at home two weeks ago with Byron Leftwich under center, basically shutting down Baltimore s offense. But the offense was horrific with Leftwich sidelined and Charlie Batch starting in last week s loss to Cleveland, turning it over a eight times while gaining just 242 yards of offense. Baltimore was in the midst of another feeble offensive day until late in last week s win in San Diego. They converted a 4th-and-29 to force OT and stole a victory. Ten of these teams last 12 meetings have been decided by one possession. PITTSBURGH 19 BALTIMORE 21 Road teams - off a road loss, in weeks 10 through 13. (72-31 ATS) Play = PITTSBURGH against the spread BALTIMORE is 5-6 ATS (6-7 SU). PITTSBURGH (2-3 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.) Six Pack: BALTIMORE is 15-4 UNDER at home after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since BALTIMORE is UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since BALTIMORE is UNDER after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is ATS revenging a home loss against opponent since PITTSBURGH is ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since

9 w w w..c o m CLEVELAND BROWNS OAKLAND RAIDERS (-1½) (361) CLEVELAND (SU: 3-8, ATS: 6-4) at (362) OAKLAND (SU: 3-8, ATS: 3-8) CLEVELAND (3.8) (5.9) (5.0) (4.1) (6.4) (5.4) OAKLAND (3.7) (6.7) (5.7) (4.7) (7.2) (6.1) Game Breakdown: The Browns finally got their second win over the year last week, though they needed eight Pittsburgh turnovers to squeak out a win against a 37-year-old third-string QB. They could be without starting QB Brandon Weeden (concussion), and back-up Colt McCoy would be a significant downgrade. The Raiders defense hasn t stopped anyone of late, allowing 42.3 PPG over the past four games. Their offense hasn t been able to keep up, as they ve averaged just 15.7 PPG over three games without RB Darren McFadden (ankle). They ve also turned it over 10 times over their past four games. CLEVELAND 22 OAKLAND 22 Home underdogs or pick - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. (87-42 ATS) Play = OAKLAND against the spread OAKLAND is 1-2 ATS (2-1 SU). CLEVELAND (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home.) Six Pack: OAKLAND is ATS at home when playing against a team with a losing record since OAKLAND is ATS when playing against a team with a losing record since OAKLAND is ATS in December games since CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 13-2 UNDER. poor rush teams - averaging <=90 rush YPG in 2nd half of season since CLEVELAND is 14-4 UNDER after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES DALLAS COWBOYS (-7½) (365) PHILADELPHIA (SU: 3-7, ATS: 1-8) at (366) DALLAS (SU: 5-6, ATS: 4-7) PHILLY (thru Wk 11) (4.4) (6.1) (5.4) (4.3) (6.9) (5.7) DALLAS (3.5) (7.0) (5.9) (4.1) (7.2) (5.8) Game Breakdown: The Cowboys have a chance to finish the season sweep of their rivals. They ll get extra rest coming off a Thanksgiving Day game, while Philly has a short week and may or may not have QB Michael Vick and RB LeSean McCoy available as they recover from concussions. The Cowboys pulled away from the Eagles in Philly in their Week 10 matchup, taking advantage after Vick went down and was replaced by rookie Nick Foles. Dallas got two defensive touchdowns and a punt return TD in the fourth quarter of a win, with Foles turning it over twice in the fourth and having another pick six called back on a penalty. PHILADELPHIA 18 DALLAS 25 Road teams - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. (32-8 ATS) Play = PHILADELPHIA against the spread DALLAS is 6-6 ATS (7-5 SU). PHILADELPHIA (3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU at home.) Six Pack: DALLAS is 1-9 ATS at home against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. DALLAS is 2-11 ATS at home in games played on turf over the L2 seasons. DALLAS is 1-10 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the L3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS. poor pass defenses - allowing comp. pct. of 61+ over the L2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS. poor pass defenses - allowing 7+ passing yards/att. over the L2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 UNDER. division opponents over the L2 seasons. NEW YORK GIANTS (-2½) WASHINGTON REDSKINS (367) NY GIANTS (SU: 7-4, ATS: 5-5) at (368) WASHINGTON (SU: 5-6, ATS: 6-5) NY GIANTS (4.5) (7.1) (6.0) (4.4) (7.5) (6.1) WASHINGTON (5.2) (7.7) (6.4) (4.1) (7.2) (6.1) Game Breakdown: Eli Manning snapped out of a slump by throwing for 249 yards and three TDs in last week s blowout win over the Packers. The Redskins have also completely snapped out of a midseason funk, topping 30 points each of the last two weeks. In these teams first meeting, in Week 7, Robert Griffin III and the Skins offense torched the Giants for 480 yards of offense, including a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants avoided an upset thanks to an Eli Manning-to-Victor Cruz 77-yard TD with a little more than a minute to go. Washington has covered in their last four meetings with the Giants (2-2 SU). NY GIANTS 26 WASHINGTON 27 Underdogs or pick - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (25-58 ATS) Play = WASHINGTON against the spread WASHINGTON is 5-6 ATS (3-8 SU). NY GIANTS (2-3 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.) Six Pack: WASHINGTON is 10-0 ATS. terrible def. teams - allowing 6+ yds/play in 2nd half of season since WASHINGTON is 8-22 ATS at home after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since WASHINGTON is ATS at home after gaining 6+ yards/play in their previous game since NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the L2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons. 9

10 T h e P l at i n u m S h e e t FoxSheets.com Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content Click here to get the extended Platinum Sheet with key trends and game breakdowns for Week 14 college games. Plus, top NFL statistical edges, and NBA and college hoops handicapping insight! Log on to Foxsheets.com and start winning today! Co l l e g e F o ot b a l l W e e k 1 4 : N OV D EC. 1 LOUISVILLE RUTGERS (-3) NO ILLINOIS (-6) KENT STATE UCLA STANFORD (-8½) ALABAMA GEORGIA (-11½) OKLAHOMA (-6½) TCU CENTRAL FLORIDA TULSA (-1) TEXAS KANSAS STATE (-11½) FLORIDA ST (-13½) GEORGIA TECH OKLAHOMA St (-4½) BAYLOR (-7½) NEBRASKA (-3) WISCONSIN 10