COLLEGE KEYS DELIVER HUGE 6-1 WEEK THE TOP 5 COLLEGE KEYS WERE ALL WINNERS IN ISSUE 14

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1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVI Issue 15 November 7, 2016 $10.00 COLLEGE KEYS DELIVER HUGE 6-1 WEEK THE TOP 5 COLLEGE KEYS WERE ALL WINNERS IN ISSUE 14 4th Quarter Covers NCAA Week 10! Northern Illinois (-17) 45, Bowling Green 20: This rematch of last season s MAC championship wasn t quite the appealing game the conference had hoped for with a pair of struggling teams but it was still a competitive game after Bowling Green climbed to within 11 points late in the third quarter. Northern Illinois slipped past the spread in the final minute of the third quarter leading but Bowling Green was in position to answer with 1st-and-goal from the Northern Illinois 8-yard line. Four incomplete passes later the Huskies had the ball back but Bowling Green held on defense until they handed the ball back to Northern Illinois after failing going for it on 4th-and-5 from their own 30-yard line. Five plays later Northern Illinois wrapped up the game and the favorite cover with a touchdown run with fewer than two minutes to go on the clock. Ohio (-17½) 34, Buffalo 10: The Bobcats pulled past the heavy home favorite spread for the first time only 19 minutes into the game with a 20-0 edge and then after exchanging scores still held a 27-7 advantage before a short Buffalo field goal cut the margin to 17 points by halftime. Seven straight punts started the second half before Ohio turned in a 47-yard touchdown drive making the most of good field position for a edge early in the fourth quarter and Buffalo didn t make much of a threat to spoil the cover on its final two possessions. Wake Forest (-2½) 27, Virginia 20: Down 17-6 at the half Virginia rallied to take a edge late in the third quarter. A field goal with about eight minutes to go tied the game for Wake Forest and just over a minute later the Demon Deacons took the lead with a big play on defense, taking an interception 39 yards for the goahead score Virginia had two more possession before the game ended but the Wake Forest defense held to make the Demon Deacons bowl eligible for the first time in five years. Oklahoma State (+1) 43, Kansas State 37: The Wildcats turned a five-point halftime deficit into a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter. Oklahoma State hit a big play with an 82-yard pass play halfway through the fourth quarter to pull within two points. The Cowboys forced a punt to get the ball back with about five minutes to go and went 80 yards in eight plays without facing a 3rd down taking a lead after a touchdown with a two-point conversion. While the ATS win was likely out of the equation for most as Kansas State was favored by 2-3 points most of the week, Kansas State was a threat to score late for the win, getting inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds before throwing an interception on the game s final play. Troy (-23) 52, Massachusetts 31: The Trojans slipped past the heavy home favorite spread with about 10 minutes to go in the game, leading but the lead didn t hold as a touchdown with four minutes to go put Massachusetts back within the number. Up by 21 Troy s final drive reached the Massachusetts 5-yard line but they were able to take knees from there to run out the clock. Some Trojans backers likely still escaped with a win as the line as briefly below 21 early in the week. Stanford (-16½) 26, Oregon State 15: Stanford led by just six at the half but pulled away in the third quarter to lead 23-7, past the common number most of the week of -14½ before the closing spread hit as high as -16½. On the first play of the fourth quarter Oregon State got into the end zone and went for two successfully to close to within eight points. Stanford added a field goal with about 10 minutes to play and on the next drive the Cardinal were a serious threat to pull away further but Christian McCaffrey was stopped on 4th-and-goal from the one-yard line with about two minutes to go to prevent a touchdown that would have put Stanford past the spread. Wisconsin (-6) 21, Northwestern 7: The Badgers were favored by seven much of the week and took just a six-point edge into the fourth quarter at Northwestern. A Wildcats fumble for the only turnover of the game gave Wisconsin a short field and early in the final frame the Badgers capitalized with a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion to lead by 14. Northwestern had a few more possessions but came up short on downs twice without crossing midfield as the Badgers held on. Western Kentucky (-34½) 49, Florida International 21: The Hilltoppers had a 49-7 edge through three quarter but it wouldn t hold up as Florida International scored a pair of touchdowns early in the fourth quarter in the span of about a minute after taking advantage of a fumble. Up by 28 there wasn t much urgency as the Hilltoppers went for it on 4th-and-7 from the FIU 26-yard line late in the game and a late Panthers fumble wasn t costly as FIU stayed just within the heavy underdog spread. Louisiana Tech (-21) 45, North Texas 24: The Bulldogs led by only seven well into the third quarter before a touchdown made it a 14-point margin heading into the final frame in Denton. A minute into the fourth quarter Louisiana Tech completed an 11-play drive to match the closing road favorite spread, though much of the week the spread ranged from -19 to -20½. Neither team seriously threatened to score the rest of the way as the final margin matched the closing number. Get the rest at Between the Lines... Yards per play is certainly considered a useful handicapping statistic but on Sunday s 11-game slate of NFL games the team that featured the superior yards per play average lost S/U in eight of those games. Dallas, San Diego, and Baltimore were the only teams to win the production average edge and win the game and the yards per play edges for the Chargers and Ravens were miniscule. Going into the week San Francisco was the worst yards per play team in the NFL at 4.5 and the 49ers managed to post 8.5 yards per play vs. the Saints last week yet lost On the season the four teams with the best records in the NFL are all in the league s top six in yards per play as it is certainly meaningful data but there are a lot of games where it doesn t seem to matter. It is also worth noting that the only three teams in the NFL averaging below 5.0 yards per play are all currently division leaders, albeit with mediocre records. Those three teams (Baltimore, Houston, and Minnesota) are all among the league s top defenses however. The one major outlier in the data is Chicago, who is 9th in the NFL on both sides of the ball for an impressive profile yet sits buried in the NFC at 2-6. The only two teams in the league in the bottom 10 on both sides of the ball are Tampa Bay and San Francisco and both have looked like it in the recent results. The initial College Football Playoff rankings created a bit of controversy with Texas A&M ahead of Washington. The argument was fair but it is a moot point this week as the Aggies were upset last week. The big question this week is whether Ohio State can jump over Washington this week, having blown out last week s #10 Nebraska. It ultimately isn t likely to matter as Washington will pick up a number of quality wins down the stretch to boost its profile and be a top four team or they ll lose at some point and fall out. It is clear that there is no margin for error for the Huskies in a down year overall for the Pac-12. The Big Ten had four top 10 squads last week in the rankings and they should again this week as Penn State can replace Nebraska. There won t be room for all of those teams obviously as the Big Ten champion seems destined to get a spot in most scenarios, even if that is two-loss Wisconsin who would have to win out and then avenge a loss vs. either one-loss Ohio State or undefeated Michigan. Bobby Petrino had a valid point noting that if Texas A&M is ahead of Washington then Clemson should be ahead of Alabama. The argument doesn t work as well this week as Alabama picked up a high quality road win last week but his team is in a difficult position even though the Cardinals would likely be favored on a neutral field over just about every team in the nation sans Alabama and Michigan. The November schedule is light and there isn t a path for the Cardinals to the ACC championship unless Clemson loses to Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Petrino s team doesn t have a great case given that they barely beat Duke and Virginia but the exciting Cardinals being in the playoff would be great TV with Lamar Jackson running away with the Heisman race. A chaos scenario is what Louisville needs to hope for with Washington being upset to knock the Pac-12 out of contention and some upsets in the Big Ten. The real question will be if Clemson loses in the ACC championship game, could Louisville move ahead of the Tigers in what would be a very taxing decision for the selection committee. Another selection committee dilemma would be if Auburn beats Georgia and Alabama in its final two SEC games to win the SEC West, would Alabama still get into the College Football Playoff? We all know the answer is yes but it could be a difficult move to defend and a dangerous precedent to set depending on the other candidates at the end of the year. The bigger question would be would Auburn also get in if they won the SEC championship with the answer likely no if Clemson, Michigan, and Washington remain undefeated 13-0 teams, and only yes if the team to fall from that trio is Washington as Louisville and Ohio State are poised to move up if Clemson or Michigan get knocked off. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.

2 COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 OKLAHOMA (-14½) over Baylor RATING 4 COLORADO STATE (+4) over Air Force RATING 3 TEXAS TECH (+12) over Oklahoma State RATING 2 MIAMI, OH (-10½) over Buffalo RATING 2 WASHINGTON STATE (-14½) over California RATING 1 EAST CAROLINA (-7) over Smu RATING 1 NEW MEXICO STATE (+19½) over Arkansas St ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2016 North Carolina (-11½) DUKE Duke nearly did North Carolina a big favor last week as they hung close with Virginia Tech in a three-point loss where an upset would have put the Tar Heels in front of the Coastal Division. North Carolina will be favored the rest of the way with a chance to reach 10-2 overall. The Tar Heels won last season and a run of four straight bowl games looks likely to end for Duke as two more difficult games remain after this rivalry clash. It is the home finale for the Blue Devils who haven t lost by more than 14 points in six defeats in playing close with several quality teams. NORTH CAROLINA BY 13 GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-8½) UL-Lafayette A 3-0 start to the season has soured for Georgia Southern with losses in five of the past six games. Realistically the Eagles will need to win out to return to a bowl game unless 6-6 is enough and knowing the finale vs. Troy looks like a difficult matchup there is no margin for error. The Eagles gave Mississippi a game last week taking an early lead and losing by just 10 points in Oxford with over 400 yards vs. a SEC defense. With that big game last week and facing conference leader Appalachian State the previous game this isn t an ideal week for a Thursday game. While it has been a disappointing season, three losses have come by 10 or fewer points for UL-L. GA SO BY 6 Utah (-5½) ARIZONA STATE 8:30 PM An extra week off following the hyped matchup with Washington should help the cause but Utah has struggled in three Pac-12 road games going 2-1 but with the wins coming in tight games against teams that are both 1-5 in league play. Arizona State was soundly out-gained in both conference wins this season and on average the Sun Devils have allowed 39 points per game in conference play. This is a game Arizona State should be up for as they had the lead in the fourth quarter vs. undefeated Utah last season but there isn t much room to cover in a loss with this number. UTAH BY 7 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2016 FLORIDA STATE (-21) Boston College After a tight battle with NC State last week Florida State doesn t have a lot to play for sitting as a heavy favorite the next two games ahead of the finale with Florida. The Seminoles won by just three points in a near major upset in the last home meeting in 2014 and last season the Eagles were again firm on defense as Florida State won just 14-0 last September in this matchup. At 4-5 Boston College has bowl hopes still alive but this team has had some lopsided results this season losing by huge margins to the top ACC teams but they did score an upset at NC State. FSU BY 17 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2016 Northwestern (-13½) PURDUE Following a rotten September Northwestern has been playing much better of late but the past two weeks they fell short in close games vs. two high end Big Ten foes. The offense that had been very productive with an increased tempo ran into trouble vs. Wisconsin s defense. At 4-5 bowl hopes are still in good shape with three winnable games remaining. Purdue has competed fairly well the past three weeks only to end up with losses by double-digit margins as the defense hasn t held up for four quarters and turnovers have been a major issue. Purdue lost by just seven in this matchup last season but getting four quality quarters has been a challenge. NW BY 17 CLEMSON (-20½) Pittsburgh Five of nine wins for Clemson have come by seven or fewer points but the Tigers had an emphatic win last week on the heels of the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings. Facing a back-up quarterback most of the way certainly shaped the lopsided margin and against good competition the Tigers have been stuck in tight games with this looking like a challenging matchup. Pittsburgh lost at Miami last week but it was a much closer game than that score with turnovers a factor. Off back-to-back defeats this is a Pittsburgh team that is a threat having scored 36 points per game in ACC play with last week s game the only lopsided loss. CLEMSON BY 16 CENTRAL FLORIDA (-12½) Cincinnati After going 0-12 last season Central Florida has been a great story now at 5-4 under Scott Frost bug getting the elusive sixth win isn t a given with three difficult remaining games. UCF caught big breaks last week with three defensive touchdowns to win 37-6 vs. Tulane despite failing to top 300 yards of offense. Projected by many to win the AAC this season Cincinnati has been a huge disappointment in At 4-5 the season isn t completely lost yet but the Bearcats are 1-4 in league play and they ll be dogged in the final three games. The defense has been acceptable but this squad has taken a severe decline in offensive production this season. UCF BY 7 Ohio State (-28) MARYLAND After a series of tight games Ohio State finally broke out with a convincing win, crushing Nebraska in Columbus last week with the Cornhuskers shorthanded without their quarterback much of the way after a scary injury. Ohio State can still win the Big Ten as they would win a potential 3-way tiebreaker but this could be a bit of a flat spot ahead of bigger games with Michigan State and Michigan. Maryland was crushed by Michigan last week but at 5-4 the Terrapins have had some success this season and with the finale vs. Rutgers a postseason berth is possible. Ohio State knows they need to show up every week here on out. OSU BY 31 Penn State (-6½) INDIANA While Penn State s big win over Ohio State featured some good fortune, they have backed it up the past two weeks with convincing results including an impressive blowout of Iowa last week. Penn State will still need a lot of help to get to the Big Ten title game but this is a team with some momentum. Indiana has rallied from losing four of five in the middle of the season to pull out back-to-back narrow wins, reaching 3-3 in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers do have a finale with Purdue if they need it for a sixth win but with next week s game in Ann Arbor this looks like a big home spot for Indiana. After losing 29-7 last season a better showing should be expected. PENN STATE BY 3 LOUISVILLE (-34) Wake Forest The Cardinals have alternated close calls and blowout wins the past four games and this looks like a tricky game at home ahead of a marquee game with Houston, even if that game isn t as important as it once looked. Wake Forest clinched a bowl bid last week holding on for a narrow win vs. Virginia and this may not be an ideal spot for the Demon Deacons to go on the road vs. a very challenging opponent. Wake Forest did play close with Florida State featuring a strong defense but it is hard to respect the wins for the Demon Deacons with mostly narrow escapes vs. marginal competition. Louisville likely knows it needs to impress. LOUISVILLE BY 38 Iowa State (-9½) KANSAS These one-win squads know this is likely the only opportunity for a Big XII win this season. Both teams have given some of the top Big XII squads serious tests this season with Iowa State especially competitive most of the conference season despite the 0-6 league record. Iowa State won last season but Kansas won by 20 in its home meeting in Iowa State did get a little extra time this week after playing last Thursday in a very respectable showing with Oklahoma but this is a game Kansas has likely keyed in on all season as the Jayhawks could surprise. ISU BY 7 EAST CAROLINA (-7) Smu East Carolina has a few ugly road losses this season and the Pirates have one of the nation s worst turnover margins. The Pirates are a productive offensive team and they won 41-3 in their last conference home game while also being NC State early in the year as the potential is there. While 4-5 is an encouraging season and the Houston win was very impressive, SMU showed it still has a ways to go, losing 51-7 at home last week in a big opportunity vs. Memphis. East Carolina put up 49 points in this matchup last season and the Pirates may be undervalued in a tough home venue. ECU BY 14 Tulsa (-2½) NAVY This game could decide the AAC West title with both teams 4-1 on top of the standings. Tulsa s only loss in the last seven games came by a touchdown at Houston as the Golden Hurricane has been impressive with big scoring results. Navy may be in a vulnerable spot following last week s big win over Notre Dame in Jacksonville, escaping with a one-point victory. Navy won last season in this matchup but the situation could be favorable for the road team this season with a lot riding on this game as both teams should be favored to win their remaining AAC games and this head-to-head matchup likely deciding the division title. TULSA BY 7 Miami, OH (-10½) BUFFALO After starting 0-6 Miami has won four games in a row and last week s result was a dominant win over one of the MAC West co-champions from last season. While a bowl bid isn t guaranteed at 6-6 it has been quite a turnaround as quarterback Gus Ragland has been remarkable since taking over the job with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Buffalo lost by 24 in a showcase game last Thursday as the Bulls have been disappointing but with two upset wins at home on the season as there has been a big disparity in the home and road efforts. Buffalo won last season at Miami but the yardage was close in a much worse season for the Redhawks. Right now Miami is playing like one of the top MAC teams. MIAMI BY 20

3 NC State (NL) SYRACUSE 11:30 AM Both of these teams lost in big opportunities last season but the results came quite differently with NC State leading most of the way vs. Florida State in a huge home game only to fall short. Syracuse on the other hand lost their quarterback early and wound up with a miserable 54-0 final score. Eric Dungey s health will likely keep this game off the board and while last week s game might not have gone well with him in there, the position is critically important on an up-tempo Orange offense that aims to run a great deal of plays quickly. With matching 4-5 records the postseason is unlikely on both sides with difficult games in the final two weeks as well but certainly only the victor still has a realistic shot. NC State deserves credit for a great showing last week but if Dungey can go the Orange could surprise. SYRACUSE BY 3 VIRGINIA TECH (-13½) Georgia Tech The Hokies moved to 5-1 in ACC play by holding off Duke last week in a three-point win as Virginia Tech wasn t able to pull away. With a pair of home games vs. losing teams remaining in conference play the Hokies are a heavy favorite to clinch the Coastal division but a marquee non-conference game with Notre Dame next week could steal some attention. At 5-4 Georgia Tech has improved from last season but the Yellow Jackets have lost four of the last six games including a 28-point loss in Chapel Hill last week. Next week s game with Virginia in the home finale might be a better opportunity but sights will be on an upset especially with a painful two-point home loss in this series last week as a motivating factor. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10 OKLAHOMA STATE (-12) Texas Tech Texas Tech is just 4-5 on the season after falling short in the home finale last week vs. Texas. The Red Raiders are on the road the next two weeks before a neutral site finale with Baylor as a disappointing season appears inevitable. With big potential on offense Texas Tech is certainly an upset threat this week as Oklahoma State s 5-1 Big XII mark is suspect with some close calls including a comeback win last week. Looking ahead to a Big XII title showdown in Norman would be a big mistake for the Cowboys. This game featured 123 points last season with over 1,300 yards of and they aren t big differences in this numbers for these teams. OSU BY 3 TEXAS A&M (NL) Mississippi A lot was made over the Aggies being ahead of Washington in the initial College Football Playoff rankings but it now doesn t matter as the Aggies were stunned for another November defeat at Mississippi State last week. Texas A&M still has a quality resume but given where the potential for the season was last week, this might be a challenging situation. This is a critical opportunity for Mississippi sitting at 1-4 in SEC play and in danger of missing a bowl game but star QB Chad Kelly was lost for the season. The Rebels have allowed nearly 32 points per game, including caught in a tough game with Georgia Southern last week. Both of these teams are on long ATS losing streaks and the Rebels are in a tough spot. TEXAS A&M BY 21 CHARLOTTE (-10½) Rice 1:00 PM The 49ers have turned thier season around with three consecutive road wins to reach 4-5, coming off an impressive win at Southern Miss last week. Charlotte isn t accustomed to being favored and the 49ers have lost all three home games vs. FBS foes this season. Rice is having a miserable season with only a FBS win to its credit and huge numbers allowed against marginal competition in the past three games. Last week s home game should have been the best opportunity for the Owls to pick up a win and Rice lost by 17 at home against a FAU team that had lost 7 in a row. CHARLOTTE BY 14 ARKANSAS STATE (-19½) New Mexico State 2:00 PM Returning to the top of the Sun Belt looked unlikely for Arkansas State after a winless September but the Red Wolves have won four in a row while outscoring foes by an over 2:1 margin. New Mexico State is just 2-6 but the Aggies have had two weeks to prepare for this game and the offense has some potential. The Aggies had good production in this matchup last season and it wouldn t be a shock if ASU was peeking ahead to the upcoming Thursday night showdown with Troy on top of the SBC. ASU BY 10 Wyoming (-7½) UNLV 2:00 PM There was no letdown for Wyoming last week backing up the big win over Boise State with a dominant win over Utah State. It has been a great season of improvement for the Cowboys but they are long ways from locking up the Mountain division still having to face San Diego State and New Mexico in the next two games. UNLV now needs to win out to make a bowl game and they are at Boise State next week as the odds a steep. The Rebels rate as the better defense statistically but it is hard to fade a Cowboys team that has scored at least 30 points in each of the last five wins. WYOMING BY 13 AIR FORCE (-4) Colorado State 9:15 PM The host has won four in a row in this series and Colorado State has won in Colorado Springs just once in the last nine trips. The Rams have a tough closing schedule as getting win #6 this week might be the best opportunity while this could be a dangerous spot for the Falcons coming off a road win vs. rival Army last week to clam the Commander in Chief s trophy and picking up their own bowl eligible sixth win in the process. All four CSU losses came against quality teams as this is an undervalued squad. CSU BY 10 ALABAMA (-29) Mississippi State The Crimson Tide moved to 9-0 with arguably their best win of the season with a shutout at LSU Saturday night. Three home games remain on the schedule with the Iron Bowl finale certainly looking like the biggest test. Mississippi State came through with an upset last week with an impressive win over Texas A&M. With tough remaining games the 4-5 Bulldogs will need two more upsets to go bowling. Last season Alabama won 31-6 in Starkville but Alabama had fewer yards and only 13 first downs with a punt return touchdown and three plays of 60 yards being the difference. The Bulldogs lost by just 5 in 2014 in Tuscaloosa and Alabama has failed to cover four of the last five seasons after the LSU game. ALABAMA BY 24 WESTERN KENTUCKY (-28) North Texas After some early ups-and-downs Western Kentucky is starting to look like the dominant team of last season, scoring 160 points the past three weeks in blowout wins. North Texas didn t hold up last week as a once promising 4-3 team is now 4-5 and difficult games remain. The Mean Green are posting 2.5 yards per play fewer than the Hilltoppers but last season North Texas scored 28 points in this matchup with a more competitive showing than most schools had vs. last season s Conference USA champions. North Texas has covered in five of the last six meetings and this line is steep. WKU BY 27 TROY (PK) Appalachian State Appalachian State survived last season in overtime in this matchup and the game caught up to the Mountaineers with their only SBC loss the next week against Arkansas State. Along with ASU, Troy and Appalachian State are the three remaining unbeaten teams in the conference with one of those teams set to fall in this game. Troy has edges on offense but Appalachian State has been the top defense in the conference, including allowing only 3.9 yards per play the past three weeks. Troy does have a great turnover margin but they may need those breaks. APP STATE BY 4 Auburn (-10) GEORGIA Georgia had three fumbles last week but delivered a big yardage edge in a 4th quarter comeback win at Kentucky. At 5-4 it has been a disappointing season but beating a highly ranked Auburn team would be a nice stamp on the progress for Kirby Smart s Georgia squad. Auburn barely escaped with a home win over Vanderbilt last week and the Tigers are the only team left in the SEC West that could catch Alabama but they need to take care of business in this game first. Georgia has won the past two meetings including a 34-7 blowout at Auburn two years ago. The defensive numbers vs. the run are excellent on both sides as a tough grind is a possibility with both teams limited in the passing game. Georgia has lost both SEC home games this season but Auburn has only played two road games this season and Georgia should provide the most formidable defense of those games. AUBURN BY 7 WISCONSIN (-26½) Illinois It has been a challenging first season for Lovie Smith at Illinois but last week s win vs. Michigan State was a big boost and several losses have been in close games in a 3-6 campaign. Wisconsin will be a heavy favorite the rest of the way and winning out will result in the Big Ten West title. After a gauntlet of big games this could be a bit of a flat spot for a team that is still having issues on offense but presents one of the nation s better defenses. Wisconsin will start to see a College Football Playoff path but there haven t been blowout wins from this group with only two wins by more than 14 points on the season. Illinois has lost by 10 and 11 in this matchup the past two seasons as this will be an inflated spread for a Badgers team struggling in the kicking game and with a poor red zone offense. WISCONSIN BY 21 TENNESSEE (-12½) Kentucky After falling short of bowl eligibility the past two seasons Kentucky had a fourth quarter lead looking to get win #6 last week at home. It didn t work out and while a FCS game is coming up next week this could be a deflated team with a three-game winning streak snapped. Tennessee took care of business in a FCS matchup last week but a three-game SEC slide remains. Tennessee will be a heavy favorite to win out and that might be enough for a SEC East title even though the Volunteers are fifth in the standings right now in a mediocre grouping of teams. Tennessee won last season in this matchup on the road but this year s team has had a penchant for starting slow and playing in close games vs. anyone. Tennessee s statistical edge isn t as severe as you might expect to see. TENNESSEE BY 10 FLORIDA (-11½) South Carolina A severe rebuilding season was expected in Columbia this season and a 2-4 start seemed to affirm those beliefs. With three straight wins including an upset win over Tennessee the Gamecocks are on track for a bowl bid as they get FCS Western Carolina next week in between two very tough road games with this trip to Gainesville and the finale at Clemson. Florida had a great path lined up for a SEC East title and even a shot to make the College Football Playoff but the Gators were blown out at Arkansas last week with ugly numbers from the offense. These teams have played very close games the past three years and South Carolina has won four of the last six meetings. As bad as Florida looked on offense last week they have still been more productive than the Gamecocks and the defense should have a dominant performance this week. FLORIDA BY 17

4 Lsu (-7) ARKANSAS The Tigers have had to play Arkansas the past two seasons following the Alabama matchup and the past two years LSU has lost badly vs. the Razorbacks. LSU is 1-8 ATS in this series since 2007 going 4-5 S/U despite routinely being a solid favorite. Arkansas came up with a big bounce back win last week to knock off Florida at home and this will be another big game opportunity at home. An Arkansas run defense that has allowed 6.1 yards per rush this season faces a very difficult matchup but LSU isn t getting much done in the passing game, looking fairly similar to Florida s production. LSU had a great defensive showing last week in a commendable 10-0 loss to Alabama but the weight of that game could have an impact. LSU BY 4 Stanford (-3) OREGON 3:00 PM The Ducks have won at least nine games in each of the last nine seasons but not only will that run end this season but the Ducks need to win out to even qualify for the postseason. This matchup has been one of the biggest in the Pac-12 in recent years but Stanford is just 6-3 this season and neither of these teams is a contender in the North division. Last season Oregon won at Stanford to basically bounce the Cardinal out of the College Football Playoff. There are clear edges for Oregon on offense and for Stanford on defense in this matchup and the team with the rushing edge has won the past 10 meetings in this series. Surprisingly a Ducks offense that has averaged 5.5 yards per rush has been out-rushed in six of the past seven games as Stanford seems to have more going for it. STANFORD BY 7 Notre Dame (-13) Army At the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas The Irish need to win out to make a bowl game and while they ll be favored to get the job done this week the final two games are challenging matchups vs. Virginia Tech and USC as a losing season seems likely in South Bend. This is a second straight neutral site game with long travel after the stunning loss to Navy in Jacksonville. Run defense has been an issue for Notre Dame as Navy was able to keep Notre Dame s offense off the field last week with long sustained drives and Army will present a similar attack. The Black Knights looked like a lock for their first bowl bid since 2010 starting 3-0 but they are no longer in a good position as the FCS win over Lafayette doesn t count. The Navy game is December 10, after the bowl lineup gets set, so Army will need to win this game to ensure a bowl bid. Expect a great effort from Army following last week s disappointing showing. NOTRE DAME BY 7 OLD DOMINION (NL) Southern Miss The Monarchs picked up win #6 last week looking to return to the postseason and while the schedule hasn t been daunting Old Dominion is 4-0 at home with dominant results. Southern Miss doesn t look likely to repeat as the West division champion this season, disappointing at 5-4 on the season while losing three of the last four games by double-digits and with QB Nick Mullens injured last week. This was a blowout last season as the Golden Eagles had over 600 yards in a win in Hattiesburg and the numbers certainly project a potential edge on the ground for the host. ODU BY 7 MICHIGAN STATE (-14½) Rutgers Both of these Big Ten East squads clinched losing seasons last week and while for Rutgers being 2-7 isn t a shock, Michigan State at 2-7 and having lost seven games in a row is stunning for a team that was in the College Football Playoff last season. This was a seven-point game last season as Rutgers had a commendable showing and the road underdog track record is strong for a Knights team that has been competitive in most Big Ten games with a pair of blowout losses skewing the numbers. Michigan State outgained Illinois by nearly 200 yards last week but still found a way to lose and laying points with the Spartans isn t advisable especially ahead of next week s season making home finale with OSU. MICHIGAN STATE BY 10 Miami, FL (-10) VIRGINIA 2-7 Virginia has lost four in a row but they have had a number of close losses this season and nearly beat Louisville a few weeks ago. The Cavaliers are 2-2 ATS as a home underdog this season and this is a formidable passing offense but the defense hasn t held up this season. Miami still has incredibly impressive season statistics but since out-gaining three non-conference foes by nearly 900 yards skews the numbers. In ACC play and vs. Notre Dame Miami has been out-gained in five of six games, only winning the yardage margin in last week s win vs. Pitt that snapped a four-game slide. The home team has won six of the last seven in this series with Virginia covering in five of the last six meetings. MIAMI BY 7 LOUISIANA TECH (-22) Texas-San Antonio These squads have played one-score games the past two seasons and this matchup could surprisingly decide the top spot in Conference USA West with Louisiana Tech 5-1 and UTSA 4-2 In league play. The first bowl berth for the Roadrunners is possible this season but they have to face Texas A&M next week for a tough closing schedule. After losing the conference opener the Bulldogs have won six straight games with big offensive numbers. The defense has been vulnerable for Louisiana Tech and UTSA has out-rushed each of its last five opponents making for a dangerous heavy underdog. Last week UTSA won by 20 vs. Middle Tennessee State who is the only C-USA team that Louisiana Tech lost to. LA TECH BY 17 WASHINGTON STATE (-14½) California 9:30 PM Cal played with highly ranked Washington for a while last week but the end result was ugly with a defeat in a huge home game. The Bears need two more wins to make a bowl game and neither will be easy to get with the remaining schedule with this the most difficult test. Their neighbors to the west are certainly getting more attention but Washington State is also 6-0 to tie on top of the North division. The Cougars have two non-conference losses that will eliminate them from College Football Playoff contention but they can be a major spoiler with the final two games vs. Colorado and Washington, teams most expect to see in the Pac-12 title game. Value could be with the underdog after contrasting results last week but Pullman is a very tough place to play this time of the year and given the hype of last week s game and with the rivalry game with Stanford up next it may be hard to get the best effort from the Bears and Washington State certainly has the ability to carve up a rather vulnerable Cal defense. WSU BY 24 Idaho (-7½) TEXAS STATE 3:00 PM The Vandals are 5-4 this season with three games to go as bowl hopes are realistic with three games to go and winnable Sun Belt games ahead. This is the last road game of the season for a well-traveled Vandals squad that won vs. Texas State in last season s finale. Texas State has lost four games in a row and they haven t beaten a FBS squad since the opening week of the season. Last week the Bobcats failed to reach 200 yards of offense and while there are three home games remaining on the schedule the latter two are against SBC co-leaders as this may be the best shot left for another win for Texas State. Three Idaho wins this season have come by just three points as the Vandals could easily have its record reversed and in what is a third road game in a row Idaho could have trouble. IDAHO BY 4 WASHINGTON (-8) Usc Miffed to be #5 in the playoff rankings Washington delivered one of its best performances of the season to reach 9-0. This game is back in Seattle after back-to-back road wins but it looks like an extremely challenging game. USC started the season 1-3 and had the memorable 52-6 loss to Alabama to open the season but since losing narrowly at Utah with a blown lead in the final minute the Trojans have won five consecutive games. Only one of those wins came on the road but the offense has been fantastic since Sam Darnold took over at quarterback and the Trojans also have a great running game. Washington won last season in Los Angeles and the Huskies certainly have more at stake. USC has not covered in a game this season in which they haven t been a double-digit favorite as frontrunner status may be appropriate and Washington s two Pac-12 home wins have been thoroughly dominant as lost in Washington s credit due is four of the first six Pac-12 games being away from home in several tough venues. UW BY 14 UCLA (-12) Oregon State 8:00 PM At 3-6 with four straight defeats it has been an ugly season for UCLA but winning out to still make the postseason isn t impossible. All four defeats on the current slide came by 10 or fewer points and three of those losses were on the road as the Bruins have dealt with playing with a backup quarterback. Oregon State has also lost four in a row with two very competitive efforts and two lesser showings. The road showings in Pac-12 have gone poorly for the Beavers and this will be a second straight road game after losing at Stanford last week. The road team has won three in a row in this series including a 41-0 rout for UCLA last season in Corvallis. The lack of a running game has burned UCLA all season but with OSU allowing 5.4 yards per rush opportunities might be there this week. Oregon State is clearly improved and UCLA is tough to trust to pull away. UCLA BY 10 FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-3) Utep 5:00 PM 3-6 UTEP has been a disappointment this season but winning out is a reasonable possibility facing Rice and North Texas in the final two weeks. Florida Atlantic snapped a seven-game slide by winning comfortably at Rice last week and the Owls won t have a ton to play for with the home finale next week. The Owls have lost four games by six or fewer points as FAU was close to having a much better season. The same can t be said for UTEP with all six losses by double-digits. The Miners have long travel this week but it will be tough for the Owls to match the great energy and emotion from last week s streak-snapping win. FAU BY 2 Boise State (-17) HAWAI I A run of very competitive results came to a screeching halt for Hawai i last week with a 55-0 loss at San Diego State. Back at home this game will be an important one for the 4-6 Warriors but the statistics paint a rather favorable matchup for Boise State. The Broncos have had turnover issues and are just 1-7 ATS in the last eight games as a consistently overvalued squad being one of the most well known teams outside of the power five leagues. Last season Boise State won by the same margin of defeat Hawai i suffered last week 55-0 and not since 2007 has Hawai i won in this series. Turnovers were the driving factor in the blowout last week as Hawai i allowed fewer than 400 yards but now leads the nation with a -7 ratio in non-offensive touchdowns this season, allowing two interception return scores last week. Boise State was unimpressive last week in a 14-point home win and the Broncos look like a fade team with the season goals gone. BOISE STATE BY 14

5 Middle Tennessee State (-9½) MARSHALL It has been a hard fall for a successful Marshall program at 2-7 and they still need to play two of the better teams in Conference USA in the final three games. The Blue Raiders were one of three teams in the Conference USA East race until a stunning 20-point loss to Texas-San Antonio last week. Four turnovers were a factor but it was never a competitive game with MTSU trailing through three quarters. Marshall won 33 games the previous three seasons and was expected to be a top contender in this division. This matchup was one of two conference losses for the Herd last season, falling in triple-ot in Murfreesboro last season. Each of the last seven foes has outrushed Marshall by at least 100 yards as even if QB Brent Stockstill has to sit out the Blue Raiders will be able to move the ball. MTSU BY 13 TEXAS (-2½) West Virginia After a turnover-driven loss at Oklahoma State West Virginia has been erased from the national consciousness but the Mountaineers are still a Big XII contender and with a dearth of one-loss power conference squads this is a team that can t be ruled out in the playoff picture if they win out. Texas has been able to out-score its opposition the past two weeks for a pair of big wins and Texas looks likely to make a bowl game this season. Defense is a big issue for the Longhorns as West Virginia has big statistical edges in this matchup. West Virginia is also stronger on offense in total yards and yards per play despite the Mountaineers often overlooked. Wins in Lubbock and Provo this season are mildly impressive and with Texas off a pair of big instate wins this looks like a dangerous spot for the host. WV BY 4 OKLAHOMA (-14½) Baylor After a one-point loss to Texas ended a perfect start to the season Baylor was blown out at home by TCU last week in a stunning result. The remaining schedule is daunting for the Bears who have won three of the last four in the series. Oklahoma wasn t dominant in Ames Thursday night but they got the job done to maintain a perfect 6-0 Big XII mark. College Football Playoff hopes are slim but a Big XII title and a major bowl slot are compelling goals for this team who may have got the spark it needed in allowing over 800 yards to Texas Tech in October. The last two games have come against the clear bottom teams in the conference however. The lopsided loss for Baylor last week could inflate this number a bit but it is a very hollow resume for the Bears and the road results have been poor with wins over lowly Rice and a three-point escape at Iowa State. OU BY 27 NEBRASKA (NL) Minnesota While most assume Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West the winner of this game will still have shot. Nebraska no longer controls their path with a blowout loss at Ohio State last week on the heels of the epic overtime game with Wisconsin. Tommy Armstrong had a scary injury last week which certainly had an impact in the 62-3 result and his status is unknown at this point. Minnesota doesn t have much in terms of quality wins on the resume but the three-point loss at Penn State in a game Minnesota led most of the way is looking more impressive. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings in this series including winning in Lincoln in 2015 and only once all season have the Gophers been out-gained on the ground. The defensive numbers heavily favor the Gophers and quality wins are certainly absent for Nebraska as well despite their higher rating. NEBRASKA BY 3 GEORGIA STATE (-12) UL-Monroe 1:00 PM The Warhawks scored a win last week in overtime but in road games this season UL-Monroe is 0-5 while being out-scored Georgia State is likely a bit undervalued as they have already played the three squads on top of the Sun Belt standings without a conference loss and those three defeats were respectable showings. The other SBC loss came by three points in overtime and the Panthers gave highly ranked Wisconsin a six-point game in September. These teams haven t played since 2013 but the defensive numbers appear vastly superior for the hosts. GA STATE BY 17 MISSOURI (-3½) Vanderbilt The Tigers have dropped five in a row since a 2-2 start and Missouri has lost all six power 5 games by double-digits. Vanderbilt played right with Auburn last week but ultimately a seven-point loss still dropped the Commodores to 4-5 with two tough home games remaining after this road finale. Both road wins for Vanderbilt came by exactly one point and road losses to Georgia Tech and Kentucky means a loss in Columbia is certainly a realistic possibility. Vanderbilt has a better defensive reputation but the per-play numbers are identical and Missouri has posted far greater statistics on offense, albeit padded in the non-conference schedule. MISSOURI BY 7 South Florida (-3) MEMPHIS 7:00 PM After the blowout loss at Temple South Florida bounced back to beat Navy and they have had two weeks to prepare for a huge test at Memphis though the division title looks out of reach. Memphis has lost to both of the top teams in the AAC West but this team did beat Temple and last week had a dominant road win at SMU. Memphis has three difficult games left on the schedule but this is a capable team that has won the past three seasons in this matchup. The ground game edge is severe for South Florida and the worst performances for Memphis this season have come in allowing big rushing numbers against Mississippi, Tulsa, and Navy. USF BY 6 Michigan (-20) IOWA 7:00 PM This game certainly looked potentially dangerous for Michigan but Iowa has not held up against top competition this season, now riding back-to-back defeats. Michigan moved to 9-0 last week though with a suspect schedule. Both road wins came vs. 2-7 teams and the last road win in East Lansing in late October was a struggle. Michigan is a hard to team to fade as the Wolverines scored 14 4th quarter points last week in a blowout and Jim Harbaugh doesn t really go for decorum. Iowa beat Michigan in Iowa City in the last meeting in 2013 and this is poised to be the biggest home underdog spread for the Hawkeyes since Michigan is pretty clearly the top team in the Big Ten and the early season wins over Colorado, Penn State, and Wisconsin are looking even more impressive at this point even if the schedule in the last month has been absolutely terrible. MICHIGAN BY 27 HOUSTON (-22½) Tulane 7:00 PM Tulane suffered one of the most puzzling box scores of the season last week as they had 22 first downs, 280 rushing yards while out-gaining UCF The Wave lost 37-6 with five turnovers and three defensive scores allowed being the answer. Tulane has lost four in a row but with some competitive results though this is a second straight road game vs. a rested Houston squad that has dominated this series. Houston is just 2-2 since the 5-0 start to the season and this game is ahead of the marquee opportunity with Louisville but a strong showing should be expected. HOUSTON BY 27 Colorado (-15) ARIZONA 8:00 PM Arizona has lost six in a row, clinching a losing season last week with a 69-7 rout at Washington State as it is hard to believe that the closest call for 9-0 Washington came in Tucson, escaping with a overtime result. Colorado leads the Pac-12 by itself but there isn t much margin of error with the only Buffaloes loss to USC and Utah still on the schedule. The Buffaloes have two very tough home games to close out the season and this road finale follows a big Thursday night win over UCLA. The Bruins may be down this season but that was a huge game in Boulder. Wagering on Arizona will be tough to stomach but this spread is adjusted about three touchdowns from last season s game in Boulder and at 1-8 ATS Arizona is still the better rushing team in this matchup. COLORADO BY 14 UTAH STATE (NL) New Mexico 8:00 PM Utah State has lost five of the last six games for an ugly Mountain West record for a team many thought could challenge in the division race. There were close losses early in the season but the last two games have been lopsided, albeit against the two current division leaders, and now likely without QB Kent Myers. New Mexico is quietly 6-3, recovering from early season losses to New Mexico State and Rutgers. Those losses look worse at this point and were road games, as were narrow wins over Air Force and Hawai i. Posting 6.7 yards per rush makes the Lobos dangerous though New Mexico was +20½ when they won at home last season. NM BY 4 San Diego State (-23½) NEVADA 9:30 PM The Aztecs have already clinched the West division of the Mountain West even with three games to play. San Diego State is certainly a viable threat for the top Group of 5 spot even though they didn t crack the initial top 25. They ll need Western Michigan to stumble while avoiding their own trip in a potentially challenging road game this week ahead of next week s date with Mountain leader Wyoming. Nevada lost modestly in this matchup last season and the Wolf Pack has lost by single-digit margins vs. Wyoming and New Mexico the past two games for respectable showings. In the past few years San Diego State has losses to Eastern Illinois and South Alabama twice as with a one-dimensional offense and reliant on its defense the Aztecs are prone to flat showings and this could be one. SDSU BY 17 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2016 Kent State (NL) BOWLING GREEN 5:00 PM Kent State faced Western Michigan Tuesday as faint bowl hopes will likely be sealed by this game. The Flashes have good defensive numbers in league play while Bowling Green has allowed over 400 points in nine games ahead of the previous game with Akron Wednesday. KENT STATE BY 10 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (NL) Ohio Ohio is the MAC East leader with effectively two-game cushion as they own the tiebreaker over Miami. Central Michigan lost badly on Friday to Miami but at 5-5 this is a critical spot for the Chippewas. CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 7 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2016 TOLEDO (NL) Ball State The Rockets play Northern Illinois on Wednesday in Chicago as they hope to stay alive in the MAC West race with a loss already but with the chance to play Western Michigan in the finale. Ball State has improved with four wins ahead of Tuesday s critical game with Eastern Michigan. TOLEDO BY 21 Northern Illinois (NL) EASTERN MICHIGAN 7:00 PM The Tuesday Eastern Michigan/Ball State game likely is critical in the bowl hopes for those squads as the Eagles seek a major breakthrough, last in a bowl game in The Huskies have a huge Wednesday matchup with Toledo ahead of this game looking to avoid a losing season. EM BY 6

6 NFL KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 DENVER (+1½) over New Orleans RATING 4 PHILADELPHIA (-1) over Atlanta RATING 3 PITTSBURGH (+2½) over Dallas RATING 2 CAROLINA (-3) over Kansas City RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (+1½) over Houston ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change WEEK 10 BYES: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Oakland THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2016 BALTIMORE (-10) Cleveland (45) 7:25 PM In a huge rivalry game out of the bye week the Ravens jumped out to an early lead and held on for a big win to halt a four-game slide. 4-4 with a 2-0 division record has Baltimore on top of the NFC North. At the bottom is 0-9 Cleveland, losing last week at home. In week 2 the Browns led Baltimore 20-2 through the 1st quarter but found a way to lose, one of six Cleveland losses by 14 or fewer points this season. Baltimore is just +1 in season point-differential as every game has been decided by eight or fewer points for an offense posting 4.8 yards per play. RAVENS BY 7 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2016 Houston (-1½) JACKSONVILLE (43) Four turnovers spoiled a yardage edge for Jacksonville last week in Kansas City as the Jaguars easily could have had a major upset. Few NFL teams that post over 200 rushing yards in a game lose but that was the case for Jacksonville and they even needed a late score for a backdoor cover as a heavy underdog to underline how dysfunctional this collection of quality talent has been this season. Houston was off last week sitting in the AFC South lead although the Texans have a worse scoring differential than the Colts and Titans teams chasing in the division race. Houston is 0-3 in road games this season while getting outscored by 63 points. JAGUARS BY 4 CAROLINA (-3) Kansas City (44½) The Panthers defense has been excellent vs. the run all season and Carolina had a shutout going until late in the game last week, winding up with a threepoint result but with the win never in doubt. At 3-5 the Panthers are back within range of a wild card spot though with many teams ahead of them in a crowded NFC picture. This is a critical stretch in the schedule with quality teams ahead the next several weeks with the home games absolute mustwin games to make a run. The Chiefs are 16-2 in the last 18 regular season games but this is a below average team statistically on both sides of the ball, benefitting from the league s best turnover margin. PANTHERS BY 7 NEW ORLEANS (-1½) Denver (49) The Saints are back to.500 after winning in San Francisco last week, getting four turnovers to win easily despite allowing one of the NFL s worst offensive teams to gain 8.5 yards per play. New Orleans does have some quality wins and every loss has come by seven or fewer points. The Broncos surrendered the AFC West lead losing in the big Sunday night game in Oakland with the offense overmatched with the lack of a running game and Trevor Siemian s limitations. This is a second straight road game vs. a difficult offense to defend ahead of the late Week 11 bye week but this looks like a critical spot for the defending champions to get back on track. BRONCOS BY 7 NEW YORK JETS (-2½) Los Angeles (41) Patience is wearing thin with the struggles of the Rams on offense but Jeff Fisher probably won t be let go in a major transition season for the franchise. The Rams have lost four in a row since a 3-1 start and Case Keenum continues to play with the worst QBR rating in the league while the #1 pick in April s draft is yet to see the field. Near league-worst rushing numbers is perhaps the bigger issue for the offense but the defense can keep the Rams in games. Cross country travel this week adds to a grueling schedule but this is a Jets team that lost in a key division matchup last week in a game that could have turned the season around. The Jets have better statistics than their record and they have had to play six of nine on the road but the Rams won t be an easy team to pull away from. JETS BY 1 PHILADELPHIA (-1) Atlanta (50) 3-0 is now 4-4 and last place in the NFC East for the Eagles. Philadelphia made some big plays on defense and special teams early in the season but they were burned by a few big plays in consecutive road losses. The Eagles are 0-3 in the division but the wild card option is still viable for a team that still owns the NFL s third best scoring differential. 6-3 Atlanta holds a comfortable lead in the NFC South coming off a Thursday night win and with the bye week next week. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS on the road this season with four S/U wins but the Eagles should come alive on offense this week. EAGLES BY 7 WASHINGTON (-2½) Minnesota (42) Off the London tie and a bye week Washington hosts a sinking Minnesota team riding three straight losses including a painful home defeat last week vs. the Lions. The new-look offense was somewhat successful last week but missed opportunities burned the Vikings and the defense has been more ordinary in recent weeks especially against the run. Washington is one of the top offensive teams in the league but there is just one win vs. a winning team on the resume and that was a narrow escape in Week 3. Washington has a negative scoring differential but they will catch a reeling Vikings squad in some transition off a demoralizing defeat. WASHINGTON BY 7 Green Bay (-2½) TENNESSEE (48½) The Titans had a second half lead in San Diego last week before allowing two defensive touchdowns. The Titans incredibly have allowed seven nonoffensive scores this season without getting a single one of their own for 49 extra points allowed for a team that looks like an AFC playoff contender in a lot of other ways. With Minnesota losing again last week the Packers blew a golden opportunity to get back on top of the division but now at 4-4 there are more questions than answers for a team most expected to be a serious threat in the NFC picture. The only road win of the season came narrowly in Week 1 at Jacksonville and the only convincing win the Packers have all season came against Bears 3rd-string QB Matt Barkley and even that was a three-point game in the fourth quarter. PACKERS BY 1 TAMPA BAY (NL) Chicago Ahead of the bye week the Bears scored a huge Monday night win over Minnesota and while 2-6 Chicago has good statistics on both sides of the ball and both wins came vs. winning teams. The backfield for Tampa Bay has been decimated with injuries and the defense has been lit up the past two weeks, albeit against elite passing offenses which Chicago is certainly not, even with Jay Cutler back in action. Tampa Bay is 0-4 at home this season with 150 points allowed as the Bears could keep it going. BEARS BY 3 SAN DIEGO (-3½) Miami (48) 3:05 PM Chargers games are never dull as San Diego squandered an early lead last week and then scored twice on defense to beat Tennessee and stay alive in the AFC playoff chase though still buried in the AFC West standings. With three wins in a row Miami is now 4-4 but all four wins for the Dolphins this season came at home as the Dolphins have only played three road games and none since a lopsided Week 4 Thursday night loss in Cincinnati. Improved rushing has been the key to the recent success for these teams and San Diego is still hard to trust laying points. CHARGERS BY 3 ARIZONA (-13) San Francisco (48½) 3:25 PM The 49ers had a four-turnover game last week out of the bye week as despite successful production from the offense the 49ers have lost seven games in a row while being outscored by 121 points. Arizona is a losing team halfway through the season after being one of the NFC favorites to open the year. The Cardinals won at San Francisco in a Week 5 Thursday night matchup led by Drew Stanton at quarterback against Blaine Gabbert as this game could look much different. Arizona still owns elite defensive numbers but it is hard to believe this offense is 24th in the NFL in yards per play averaged, though still well ahead of San Francisco. CARDINALS BY 10 PITTSBURGH (-2½) Dallas (50) 3:25 PM Ben Roethlisberger returned last week but he may wish he took more time in a rusty showing in a loss at Baltimore in a game where the Steelers didn t score in the first 51 minutes. Pittsburgh now draws 7-1 Dallas with the Cowboys continuing to look like the only elite team in the NFC, albeit with no wins vs. winning teams since Week 2. This will be a second straight road game for the Cowboys and this could be one of the toughest matchups of the season for the Dallas defense as Pittsburgh should be expected to have a much better performance, now as just a modest favorite. STEELERS BY 6 NEW ENGLAND (NL) Seattle 7:30 PM This Super Bowl XLIX rematch comes in a much more favorable situation for the Patriots, off last week while Seattle played Monday night before this cross country trip. The Seahawks only have one road win on the season and the Patriots have four double-digit margin victories since Tom Brady returned to once again sit comfortably on top of the AFC. Seattle has an elite defense but trusting the Seahawks on offense is quite difficult. The revenge game storyline will be prominent for Seattle but these teams look quite different from that famous game and one clearly has edges. PATRIOTS BY 10 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2016 NY GIANTS (-2) Cincinnati (47) 7:30 PM The Giants scored a big win over the Eagles last week and New York sits as the current top wild card team in the NFC though with several teams close behind. New York owns a negative scoring differential and no wins by more than seven points. Cincinnati has navigated a very tough first half schedule without falling too far behind in the division race as Pittsburgh and Baltimore are knotted at 4-4 above the Bengals. The Bengals lack quality wins and have lost by eight or more points in all four defeats, though they have had to play the league s two 7-1 squads on the road this season. The Bengals continue to squander too many opportunities. GIANTS BY 4

7 Matchup Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Matchup Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Bowling Green Utah State Northern Illinois Wyoming Western Michigan Missouri Ball State South Carolina Toledo South Alabama Akron UL-Monroe Buffalo Idaho Ohio UL-Lafayette Arkansas State Florida Intl Georgia State Western Kentucky Oklahoma Louisiana Tech Iowa State North Texas UCLA Washington Colorado California Central Michigan Oregon Miami, OH USC Temple Marshall Connecticut Old Dominion San Jose State Hawai'i Boise State San Diego State Navy Texas Notre Dame Texas Tech Texas State Texas A&M Appalachian State Mississippi State BYU Memphis Cincinnati SMU Air Force Iowa Army Penn State Louisville Oregon State Boston College Stanford Purdue Arizona Minnesota Washington State Virginia Tech Alabama Duke LSU Syracuse Wisconsin Clemson Northwestern Kansas Nebraska West Virginia Ohio State Indiana Nevada Rutgers New Mexico Michigan State Tulane Illinois Central Florida Florida State Tennessee Tech NC State Tennessee Maryland Houston Baptist Michigan UTEP Virginia VIKINGS Wake Forest BEARS Oklahoma State FALCONS Kansas State BUCCANEERS East Carolina JAGUARS Tulsa CHIEFS UTSA LIONS Mid Tenn State VIKINGS Charlotte EAGLES Southern Miss GIANTS TCU COWBOYS Baylor BROWNS Pittsburgh JETS Miami, FL DOLPHINS Georgia Tech STEELERS North Carolina RAVENS Vanderbilt SAINTS Auburn ERS Georgia PANTHERS Kentucky RAMS Florida COLTS Arkansas PACKERS Fresno State TITANS Colorado State CHARGERS Georgia Southern BRONCOS Mississippi RAIDERS PK Massachusetts BILLS Troy SEAHAWKS Florida Atlantic Rice JOE NELSON PICKS IN NFL, NCAA FOOTBALL, NBA & MLB ACTION Available daily at COLLEGE BASKETBALL ALSO STARTS SOON! FREE APP Pre-Register now at Enter nelly when you register and get a $20 Nelly s Sportsline Credit bonus! TURNOVER WATCH: NCAA: WASHINGTON +15 WESTERN MICHIGAN +15 COLORADO +13 MINNESOTA +12 BYU +11 OHIO STATE +11 SAN DIEGO STATE FRESNO STATE -11 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -12 PURDUE -12 KANSAS -15 BOWLING GREEN -17 NFL: (*Monday Pending) KANSAS CITY +13 MINNESOTA +12 OAKLAND +9 BUFFALO +8* PHILADELPHIA HOUSTON -7 NY GIANTS -7 NY JETS -10 JACKSONVILLE -12 Non-Offensive TD Margin This includes scores on interceptions, fumbles, kick return, and punt return/block touchdowns. NCAA: ALABAMA +11 AKRON +5 CENTRAL FLORIDA +5 WESTERN MICHIGAN +5 HOUSTON +4 KANSAS STATE +4 MEMPHIS +4 PITTSBURGH +4 WASHINGTON SYRACUSE -4 UL-MONROE -5 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -7 HAWAI I -7 NFL: (*Monday Pending) BUFFALO +3* KANSAS CITY +3 MINNESOTA NY JETS -4 NEW ORLEANS -4 TENNESSEE -7 NCAA 4th Quarter Covers: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-17) led by 18 entering the 4Q but had to hold off four plays from inside the 10-yard line to keep the margin there, eventually adding a TD at 1:40 to seal the cover. OHIO (-17½) led 20-0 early but was only up by 17 at the half and not until the 4Q did the Bobcats pull past the number for good with a result. WAKE FOREST (-2½) led 17-6 early but Virginia rallied to take a lead. The game was tied early in the 4Q and a pick-6 put the Deacons up 27-20, holding on defense to cover. OKLAHOMA STATE (+2½) trailed by 9 in the 4Q before hitting an 82-yard pass play and then delivering another TD drive with a 2-pt conversion to go up by six. K-State was inside the 10- yard line before a late INT. MASSACHUSETTS (+23) trailed by 28 with about 10 minutes to go but a Minutemen TD put the margin at 21. Troy reached the 5-yard line on its final drive before taking a knee. OREGON STATE (+16½) trailed 23-7 on a spread that was around +14½ most of the week. Early in the 4Q an OSU TD trimmed the margin to 8 points. Stanford added a FG and then was stopped on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line to prevent the cover. WISCONSIN (-6) led by just 6 into the 4Q but capitalized on a turnover to go up by 14 with a successful 2-point conversion and then held on D.