Ajax. Ajax Downs. Proposed Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment Town of Ajax

Transcription

1 Ajax Ajax Downs Proposed Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment Town of Ajax (13281) March 2015

2 March 19, 2015 Mr Andrew Picov Ajax Downs 50 Alexander s Crossing Ajax ON L1Z 2E6 Dear Mr Picov RE: Proposed Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment Town of Ajax Our Project No (13281) GHD Inc. is pleased to submit the enclosed Transportation Assessment assessing the traffic impacts of the proposed gaming centre expansion located in the northwest quadrant of the intersection of Audley Road at Kingston Road in the Town of Ajax. The subject site consists of expanding the Ajax Downs gaming establishment from 800 gaming positions to 3,700 gaming positions (ie. 2,500 slot machine positions and 1,200 table games positions). It should be noted that this revised study addresses comments received from the Town of Ajax dated June 26, 2014 and March 3, 2015, as well as Town pre-consultation meeting minutes with the Town on July 17, 2014 and December 18, Based on our review of the comments / minutes, we have revised the traffic analysis to address comments and have provided further detail where required. This study concludes that with the closure of Alexander s Crossing between the public north access and Kerrison Drive and realigning Alexander s Crossing to Audley Road, the proposed expansion does not add significant adverse impacts on the nearby road network and no additional road modifications are triggered as a result of this development. With implementation of the recommended road network improvements along with other non-site related traffic growth, the future traffic can be accommodated by the abutting roadway system. We trust the enclosed is sufficient for your needs, but please do not hesitate to contact the undersigned should you require any additional assistance. Sincerely GHD Inc. Hong Shen, M.Eng., P.Eng. Transportation Engineer Encl. Roland Roovers, P.Eng., MITE Project Manager, Transport Planning GHD Inc. 11 Allstate Parkway Suite 310 Markham Ontario L3R 9T8 Canada T F E markham@ghd.com W

3 Executive summary The subject site consists of expanding the Ajax Downs gaming establishment from 800 gaming positions to 3,700 gaming positions (ie. 2,500 slot machine positions and 1,200 table games positions). Ajax Downs is located in the vicinity of Kingston Road and Audley Road and more specifically in the southwest quadrant of the intersection of Alexander s Crossing and Kerrison Drive East and is municipality known as 50 Alexander s Crossing in the Town of Ajax. The proposed concept plan includes the closure of Alexander s Crossing between the public north access and Kerrison Drive. Alexander s Crossing is planned to be realigned easterly and connected to Audley Road. Parking will be provided in the existing parking areas. Additional parking will be provided in a structured parking located in the east portion of the proposed new building with the primary access at realigned Alexander s Crossing. The south leg of the existing roundabout at Kerrison Drive is expected to provide access to surface parking and the service area and provide a secondary access to the structured parking. Based on the review of available average annual daily traffic (AADT) data, an annual growth rate of 2% was adopted for through movements globally except for Kingston Road and Alexander s Crossing. This results in a compounded traffic growth of 20% from the traffic volumes in the existing (2014) to the horizon year of Based on consultation with Town of Ajax, there are two future background developments considered in this study. The first is the Sundial Homes residential development (consisting of 880 single/semi-detached houses and 537 townhouses). The other development is the Passvale development (consisting of acres of prestige employment and acres of general industrial). The Sundial Homes residential development is located south of Rossland Road between Audley Road and the Carruthers Creek. It is expected to have access to Rossland Road, Audley Road and more specifically within the study area is expected to access Turnerbury Avenue and Ainsbury Avenue at Kerrison Drive. The Passvale development has not been approved since the application has been withdrawn. However, the potential of development has been included in this report as a sensitivity analysis of future conditions. It is located south of Kingston Road between Audley Road and Carruthers Creek. It will have access on new extensions of Audley Road, Alexander s Crossing and Chambers Drive. In consultation with the Town of Ajax, the following traffic scenarios were assessed: o o o o o o o Existing traffic Future Background traffic including the Sundial development Future Background traffic with diversions due to new road infrastructure Future Total traffic with Ajax Downs expansion Future Total traffic with realigned Alexander s Crossing to Audley Road Sensitivity analysis of Future Total traffic plus the Passvale development and the extensions of Audley Road and Alexander s Crossing to the extension of Chambers Drive Sensitivity analysis of Future Total traffic with realigned Alexander s Crossing to Audley Road Based on the anticipated future annual visitors, the Ajax Downs expansion (2,900 additional gaming positions) is expected to generate an estimated: o o o 72 inbound and 32 outbound new automobile trips during the weekday am peak hour; 157 inbound and 169 outbound new automobile trips during the weekday pm peak hour; and, 164 inbound and 85 outbound new automobile trips during the Saturday peak hour. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) i

4 Summary, listing the recommended mitigation / improvements at various stages: Intersection Salem Rd & Chambers Dr Mandrake St Audley Rd & Alexander s Crossing Kingston Rd & Alexander's Crossing Kingston Rd & Audley Rd Future Background Future Background with diversions Future Total Future Total (sensitivity analysis) Eastbound right Eastbound right Eastbound right Eastbound right N/A N/A Eastbound left Eastbound right Northbound left Southbound right N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Eastbound left Eastbound right Northbound left Southbound right Westbound left Northbound left Northbound through-right Westbound left Northbound left Northbound through-right To accommodate queuing under future total traffic conditions the following modifications or installations are recommended: o o o o o Modify the Kingston Road centre median between Salem Road and the Whitetail Centre intersection by allocating an additional 20m to the westbound left turn lane from the eastbound left turn lane at the Whitetail Centre intersection. Install Do Not Block Intersection signage facing northbound Salem Road traffic at the Ajax Cinemas access. Install Do Not Block Intersection signage facing southbound Salem Road traffic at the Durham Centre right-in / right-out access. Install Do Not Block Intersection signage facing southbound Salem Road traffic at Twilley Lane. Although not required at this time, if signals are provided at the new intersection of Alexander s Crossing / Audley Road, it is recommended that a 15 m storage lane for the northbound left turn lane and 20 m storage lanes for eastbound right and left turn lanes be provided. There is no specific parking By-law requirement for a gaming establishment use. The parking requirement is 1 space per 28 m 2 for uses not included within the list of specific land uses in the Town s By-law. Therefore, the subject site with a total floor area of 33,000 m 2 would require 1,180 parking spaces, or parking spaces per gaming position, as a minimum. Based on parking demand surveys at Ajax Downs and Woodbine Racetrack and Slots, it is estimated that 2,564 parking spaces (public and employee) are needed. The recommended parking ratio is parking spaces per gaming position. In regard to active transportation systems, there are bicycle lanes and sidewalks along Kerrison Drive and Audley Road. Sidewalks will be provided on both sides along Alexander s Crossing to connect to the external arterials at Kingston Road and Audley Road. Future transit routes and optimal transit service/frequency along Kingston Road, Audley Road, Kerrison Drive, and Alexander s Crossing can be established through discussions with Durham Regional Transit (DRT) staff. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) ii

5 Table of contents Executive summary... i 1. Introduction Retainer and objective Development description Study team Site characteristics Site environs Concept plan Existing traffic Existing road network Existing traffic Durham Region Transit services GO Transit services Future background traffic Study horizon year Future traffic growth Planned study area road network Future background development Future traffic diversion due to realigned Alexander s Crossing Background traffic volumes Proposed site generated traffic Site trip generation Site trip distribution and assignment Future total traffic Impact Analysis Existing traffic conditions Future background traffic conditions Future background traffic conditions with diversions Future total traffic conditions Future total traffic conditions with realigned Alexander s Crossing Queuing Analysis Sensitivity Analysis with Passvale development Network Assessment of Realigned Alexander s Crossing Sightline assessment of realigned Alexander s Crossing at Audley Road Parking Supply Findings/Conclusions and Recommendations GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) iii

6 Table index Table 1. Sundial Homes Residential Development Trip Generation Table 2. Sundial Homes Residential Development Distribution Table 3. Passvale development trip generation Table 4: Passvale prestige employment development distribution Table 5: Passvale general industrial development distribution Table 6: Ajax Downs weekday pm traffic count data Table 7: Ajax Downs trip generation Table 8: Ajax Downs trip distribution Table 9: Existing traffic conditions Table 10: Future background traffic conditions Table 11: Future background traffic conditions with diversions Table 12: Future total traffic conditions Table 13: Total traffic conditions with realigned Alexander s Crossing Table 14: Existing queues along Kingston Road Table 15: Existing queues along Salem Road Table 16: Future total queues along Kingston Road Table 17: Future total queues along Salem Road Table 18: Future total conditions (sensitivity analysis) Table 19: Future total conditions (sensitivity analysis) with realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure index Figure 1: Site location... 2 Figure 2: Concept plan... 4 Figure 3: Existing road network: lane configuration and traffic control... 7 Figure 4: Existing traffic volumes... 9 Figure 5: Future traffic due to natural growth Figure 6: Future traffic diversions due to new road infrastructure Figure 7: Sundial Homes site traffic Figure 8: Passvale site traffic Figure 9: Traffic diversion due to realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 10: Future background traffic Figure 11: Future background traffic with diversions due to new road infrastructure Figure 12: Future background traffic with diversions and realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 13: Ajax Downs new traffic volumes Figure 14: Ajax Downs new traffic volumes with realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 15: Total traffic volumes Figure 16: Total traffic volumes with realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 17: Future total road network with realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 18: Total traffic volumes (sensitivity analysis) Figure 19: Total traffic volumes (sensitivity analysis) with realigned Alexander s Crossing Figure 20: Total traffic road network (sensitivity analysis) with realigned Alexander s Crossing GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) iv

7 Appendices Appendix A Traffic Data Appendix B Transit Schedules Appendix C Background Development Appendix D Trip Generation & Distribution Appendix E Capacity Sheets Appendix F Sightline Assessment Appendix G Parking GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) v

8 1. Introduction 1.1 Retainer and objective The GHD Inc. was retained by Ajax Downs to prepare a Transportation Assessment to determine the traffic-related impacts on the abutting roadway system from a proposed gaming centre expansion. The subject site is located in the southwest quadrant of the intersection of Alexander s Crossing and Kerrison Drive East known as 50 Alexander s Crossing in the Town of Ajax. The subject site location is shown in Figure 1. The objective of this study is to determine the traffic volumes anticipated to be generated by the proposed development during the critical weekday am, pm and Saturday peak periods; to assess the impact of this traffic on the nearby roadways; and if needed, to recommend improvements to accommodate the projected traffic. Full build-out is anticipated to be completed in This study establishes the baseline 2014 traffic volumes, estimates the background 2023 traffic growth on the road network in the study area (i.e., estimated build-out, plus five years standard Region of Durham study requirements), estimates and assigns new site traffic volumes onto the road network, and documents the expected site-related impacts from the proposed development. 1.2 Development description The proposed current development plan consists of expanding the Gaming Establishment use from 800 gaming positions to 3,700 gaming positions (ie. 2,500 slot machine positions and 1,200 table games positions). The plan includes the closure of Alexander s Crossing between the north public access to the parking area and Kerrison Drive. The plan proposes that Alexander s Crossing be continued easterly and connecting with Audley Road. Parking will be provided in the existing parking areas with additional parking provided in structured parking located in the east portion of the new building. The disconnected portion of Alexander s Crossing will provide a secondary access from the proposed structured parking and the service area to Kerrison Drive. 1.3 Study team The GHD team involved in the preparation of this study is: Roland Roovers, P.Eng., MITE, Project Manager, Transport Planning Hong Shen, M.Eng., P.Eng., Transportation Engineer Our findings and conclusions are contained herein. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 1

9 NOT TO SCALE Figure 1: Site location GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 2

10 2. Site characteristics 2.1 Site environs Near the subject site, occupied lands are generally distributed to the north and west of the subject site. There is a residential area located north of the Alexander s Crossing - Kerrison Drive roundabout. Along Kingston Road, there are two commercial plazas located in the northwest corner and northeast corner of the intersection of Kingston Road and Salem Road, respectively. Residential uses dominate the southwest and southeast corners of the intersection of Kingston Road and Salem Road. To the east and south of the subject site, most of the lands are vacant. As confirmed during our pre-consultation and terms of reference discussions with the reviewing agencies including the Town of Ajax, the Region of Durham and MTO, the following study intersections will be examined: Salem Road and Kingston Road Salem Road and Chambers Drive - Mandrake Street Salem Road and Ringer Road Salem Road and Kerrison Drive Employee Access and Kerrison Drive Alexander s Crossing/Turnerbury Avenue and Kerrison Drive Audley Road and Kerrison Drive North Public Access and Alexander s Crossing Future Alexander s Crossing extension and Audley Road South Public Access and Alexander s Crossing Whitetail Centre Access and Kingston Road Wicks Drive and Kingston Road Galea Drive & Kingston Road Alexander s Crossing and Kingston Road Audley Road and Kingston Road Lake Ridge Road and Kingston Road 2.2 Concept plan The proposed current development plan consists of expanding the Gaming Establishment use from 800 gaming positions to 3,700 gaming positions (ie. 2,500 slot machine positions and 1,200 table games positions). The concept plan includes the closure of Alexander s Crossing between the north public access and Kerrison Drive. Alexander s Crossing is proposed to be realigned to Audley Road. There are four accesses proposed to connect to external roads which can provide access to the parking areas of subject site as follows: The existing full-moves employee and service/loading access on Kerrison Drive, west of the Turnerbury Avenue-Kerrison Drive roundabout; The existing south leg of the Alexander s Crossing roundabout (future secondary access to the parking structure and service area); Future realigned Alexander s Crossing at Audley Road; and Existing Alexander s Crossing at Kingston Road. Parking will be provided in the existing parking areas with additional parking provided in a structured parking garage located on the east side of the proposed new building with primary access at the realigned Alexander s Crossing. The south leg of the existing roundabout at Kerrison Drive is expected to provide access to surface parking and the service area as well as provide a secondary access to the structured parking. Figure 2 shows the concept plan of the proposed development and conceptual site access scheme. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 3

11 Figure 2: Concept plan GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 4

12 3. Existing traffic 3.1 Existing road network Figure 3 illustrates the existing road network assessed in this study, along with the lane configuration and traffic controls. These study intersections were determined through the preconsultation process with the Town and Region. The streets within the study area are described as follows: Kingston Road (Highway 2) is an east-west arterial Type B roadway under the jurisdiction of the Region of Durham. It has an urban curb and gutter 4-lane cross-section and a posted speed limit of 60 km/h generally west of Wicks Drive and 70 km/h east of Wicks Drive. At its signalized intersection with Salem Road, all the approaches provide a left-turn lane, and a channelized right turn lane. At its signalized intersection with Whitetail Centre Access, all the approaches provide a left-turn lane; and right-turn lanes on the east and west leg approaches. At its unsignalized T-intersections with Wicks Drive and Galea Drive, Kingston Road provides dedicated westbound left turn lanes and an eastbound right turn taper at Wicks Drive and an eastbound right turn lane at Galea Drive. Wicks Drive provides northbound shared left-right lane and Galea Drive provides northbound separate left and right turn lanes. On Kingston Road there is a westbound left turn restriction at Wicks Drive during weekday mornings from 7am to 9am which is At its signalized T-intersection with Alexander s Crossing, dedicated left turn lane and right turn lanes are provided. At its signalized T-intersection with Audley Road, dedicated left turn lane and right turn lanes are provided. At its signalized intersection with Lakeridge Road, dedicated left-turn are provided on all approaches and right-turn lanes are provided on the north, south and west leg approaches. Salem Road is a north-south arterial Type B roadway under the jurisdiction of the Region of Durham. It has an urban curb and gutter 4-lane cross-section and a posted speed limit of 60 km/h. At its signalized intersection with Kerrison Drive, all the approaches provide a left-turn lane. At its signalized intersection with Ringer Road, a dedicated left turn lanes are provided on the south and west leg approaches. At its signalized intersection with Chambers Drive-Mandrake Street, all the approaches provide a left-turn lane. Audley Road is a north-south arterial Type B roadway under the jurisdiction of the Region of Durham. It has an urban curb and gutter 2-lane cross-section and a posted speed limit of 60 km/h. At its signalized T-intersection with Kerrison Drive, dedicated left-turn lanes are provided on the south and west leg approaches. Lake Ridge Road is a north-south arterial Type A roadway under the jurisdiction of the Region of Durham. It has a 2-lane rural cross-section and a posted speed limit of 60 km/h south of Kingston Road and 80 km/h north of Kingston Road. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 5

13 Kerrison Drive is an east-west arterial Type C roadway under the jurisdiction of the Town of Ajax. It has an urban curb and gutter 2-lane cross-section and an un-posted speed limit of 50 km/h. At its roundabout with Alexander s Crossing Turnerbury Avenue, shared lanes are provided at all approaches. At its unsignalized T-intersection with Ainsbury Avenue, southbound Ainsbury has the stop control and shared lanes are provided at all approaches. Similarly, at the unsignalized T-intersection with the employee access, northbound access has the stop control and shared lanes are provided at all approaches. Ringer Road is an east-west collector roadway under the jurisdiction of the Town of Ajax. It has an urban curb and gutter 2-lane cross-section and an un-posted speed limit of 50 km/h. Chambers Drive Mandrake Street is an east-west arterial Type C roadway under the jurisdiction of the Town of Ajax. It has an urban curb and gutter 2-lane cross-section and an unposted speed limit of 50 km/h. Alexander s Crossing is a north-south collector roadway under the jurisdiction of the Town of Ajax. It has an urban curb and gutter 4-lane cross-section and an un-posted speed limit of 50 km/h. The Alexander s Crossing consists of a four-lane cross section. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 6

14 Figure 3: Existing road network: lane configuration and traffic control

15 3.2 Existing traffic Traffic counts referred to as turning movement counts (TMCs) from the Region at the major study intersections were conducted in non-summer months in 2011 and These data are deemed old and therefore GHD commissioned newer traffic counts in Ontario Traffic Inc. (OTI) conducted weekday am, Friday pm and Saturday peak periods turning movement traffic counts for all study intersections. This data was obtained in July and October The Friday pm was selected over a weekday pm since it is expected that the traffic would be higher at Ajax Downs. This is confirmed in Section 5 under the details of the trip generation. The traffic turning movement counts (TMCs) can be found in Appendix A. The existing 2014 volumes are shown in Figure 4. GHD obtained the current signal timing plans (STPs) for the study signalized intersections from the Region of Durham. The STPs can be also found in Appendix A. GHD also undertook site visits in order to make observations and document existing traffic conditions and lane configurations in the study area. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 8

16 Figure 4: Existing traffic volumes

17 3.3 Durham Region Transit services Durham Region Transit (DRT) currently provides services in the study area via Route 225 during weekday & Saturday daytime, Route 225A during weekday daytime and Route 225D during weekday & Saturday evenings, Sundays and holidays: Route 225 provides Monday to Friday service every 15 to 50 minutes from 5:11 am to 9:53 am and from 4:05 pm to 8:13 pm. The Saturday service is every 60 minutes from 7:05 am to 8:53 am and 4:05 pm to 6:53 pm. This route starts at Ajax GO Station, passing through the intersection of Kingston Road at Salem Road, along Kingston Road eastbound before heading northbound at the intersection of Alexander s Crossing, running a loop through Audley Road, Taunton Road, Harwood Avenue, Rossland Road, Salem Road, back to the intersection of Kingston Road at Salem Road, and returning to Ajax Go Station along the same route as outbound. This route has a bus stop at the North Public Access at the Alexander s Crossing. Route 225A has almost same route as Route 225. The difference is it heads north at the intersection of Kingston Road at Salem Road and loops back to Alexander s Crossing southbound to Kingston Road. It provides Monday to Friday service every 15 to 50 minutes from 5:24 am to 10:23 am and from 3:35 pm to 8:18 pm. This route has a bus stop at the North Public Access at the Alexander s Crossing. Route 225D has the same route as Route 225 (ie. northbound on Alexander s Crossing). It provides bus service every 60 minutes Monday to Friday evenings from 8:05 pm to 1:50 am next day, Saturdays from 7:05 pm to 00:49 am next day and Sundays from 9:05 am to 10:49 pm. Holiday service schedule is as same as Sundays with the exception that it ends at 6:49 pm. This route has a bus stop at the North Public Access at the Alexander s Crossing. The DRT service map and schedules are provided in Appendix B. 3.4 GO Transit services GO Transit currently provides bus service to the Town of Ajax. In the study area, GO Transit provides a Highway 2 GO Bus service connecting Toronto to Ajax. Weekday service frequencies vary from 30 minutes during peak hours to 60 minutes during off peak hours. Eastbound service is provided from 5:50 am to 1:35 am and westbound service is provided from 5:15 am to 0:01 am. Saturday, Sunday and holiday service is provided with frequencies of every 40 minutes during peak hours and every 60 minutes during other times. The bus service is from 7:40 am to 1:40 am eastbound and 6:35 am to 0:01 am westbound. The map and schedules of the Highway 2 GO Bus service are provided in Appendix B. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 10

18 4. Future background traffic This section addresses the future roadway system, traffic growth and other developments. 4.1 Study horizon year The subject development is expected to be completed in As requested by the Region of Durham and the Town of Ajax in their traffic study guidelines, future traffic conditions were examined for a five-year planning horizon beyond the estimated 2018 full build-out. Therefore, for analysis purposes, a future horizon year of 2023 (five years beyond 2018 build-out) was assumed. 4.2 Future traffic growth Future traffic growth comes from traffic generators outside of the study area. On the basis of reviewing the trends in available Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data, an annual growth rate of 0% and 2% was derived for Kingston Road and Salem Road, respectively. The AADT data and detailed growth rate calculations are in Appendix A. The resultant no growth along Kingston Road is reasonable for the peak hours, since the corridor is experiencing at or near capacity especially in the vicinity of Salem Road. There are no available AADT data on Kerrison Drive and Audley Road, therefore, GHD is not able to comment on the traffic growth trend on these two roads. Moreover, traffic on Alexander s Crossing is not expected to increase except for changes in site traffic. Consequently, to be conservative, an annual growth rate of 2% was adopted for through movements throughout the study area except for Kingston Road and Alexander s Crossing. This results in a compounded growth of 20% (i.e. growth factor of 1.20) which is applied to the existing 2014 traffic to estimate the future traffic in horizon year As a result, the estimated 2023 background weekday am, Friday pm and Saturday peak hour traffic volumes resulting from the applied growth is presented in Figure Planned study area road network The existing road lane configuration and intersection control types within the study area is used for the analysis of future background traffic. Infrastructure improvements, such as the Highway 407 East extension from Brock Road in Pickering to Harmony Road in Oshawa, are scheduled to be operational by late This project will include the north-south freeway link, known as the West Durham Link (WDL), with a partial interchanges at Highway 2 (to/from north). There is also an interchange planned at Highway 401 and Lakeridge Road. This road project will be in place before or coincident with the Ajax Downs expansion. With the implementation of the interchanges of West Durham Link & Highway 2 and Highway 401 & Lake Ridge Road, the existing and future traffic at the critical intersections of Salem Road / Kingston Road and Salem Road / Chambers Drive Mandrake Street will be mitigated and divert to these new interchanges. The following diversions are expected: East-west along Kingston Road will divert to Highway 407, Westbound left and northbound right at Kingston / Salem will divert to Kingston-Dundas / Lakeridge via the new interchange at Highway 401, and Northbound left at Kingston/Salem will divert to Kingston-Dundas / Lakeridge via the new interchange at Highway 401. These diversions are illustrated in Figure 6. The estimated diverted volumes of individual movements at the intersection of Kingston Road / Salem Road are in the range of 20 and 115 vehicles. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 11

19 Figure 5: Future traffic due to natural growth

20 Figure 6: Future traffic diversions due to new road infrastructure

21 The Durham Region Long-Term Transit Strategy (LTTS) identifies higher order (rapid transit) along Highway 2 (Kinston Road) corridor. The Highway 2 higher order service is planned to provide substantially better transit service throughout Durham Region and into the City of Toronto. The LTTS states (in Section 5.2.3) that construction could begin as early as 2016 for Highway 2 (BRT), construction is expected to take place over a multi-year period from According to Durham Region Transit, the operator of the BRT, the BRT will operate in bus only lanes in both directions through Uptown Ajax with 7.5 minute headways during peak hours. New BRT buses along with advanced technologies, such as transit priority signals, will be in place to reduce travel times. It is our understanding that the BRT project will reduce the auto driver trips and increase the transit mode share. However, no trip reductions were applied to the baseline volumes to account for the BRT since they are considered small in the short-term (study horizon) and are a long-term (2031) target. However, to be conservative, no trip reductions were applied in the analysis since the reduction are considered long-term (2031) targets and by the 2023 study horizon only a portion of the trip reductions due to the BRT will have occurred. 4.4 Future background development In consultation with the Town of Ajax, two future background developments were identified. One is the Sundial Homes residential development which is located south of Rossland Road between Audley Road and Carruthers Creek. The other is the Passvale commercial and employment development which is located to the south of Kingston Road between Audley Road and Carruthers Creek. The site plan and concept plan, respectively, of these developments are included in Appendix D. Based on our review of the Passvale Industrial Development Traffic Impact Study (prepared by Entra Consultants, March 2007), the Audley and Alexander s Crossing extensions south (referred to as the Passvale north access) to Chamber Drive were needed for the development. However, since the Council adopted the staff recommendation to refuse the application and Passvale s withdrawal of the application, no further development application(s) have been put forward, as such the timing and the extent of development is uncertain. Therefore, these new road extensions are considered in a sensitivity analysis in Section 7.7, to estimate the traffic changes and impacts of the new roads and the potential development. The trip generation and distribution of the two background developments are described in following sections Sundial Homes development trip generation To derive the traffic generated by the Sundial Homes residential development, GHD reviewed the site plan provided by the Town of Ajax and the Ajax Audley Developments Ltd (Sundial Homes) Traffic Impact Study conducted by URS Canada Inc., dated October 26, According to the site plan, the Sundial residential development consists of 880 single/semi-detached houses and 537 townhouses. In the Ajax Audley Developments Ltd (Sundial Homes) Traffic Impact Study the average trip generation rates of Single-Family Detached Housing (Land Use 210) for single/semidetached homes and Residential Condominium/Townhouse (Land Use 230) for townhouses in the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation, (7 th Edition) were utilized to estimate trip generation. The related excerpts from the Ajax Audley Developments Ltd (Sundial Homes) Traffic Impact Study excerpts are included in Appendix D. GHD adopted the same methodology using the newer ITE Trip Generation, 9 th Edition. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 14

22 The Sundial development is located in the southwest quadrant of Rossland/Audley. It has direct access to Rossland and Audley and indirect access to Kerrison via existing development (via Ainsbury and Turnerbury Avenues). The rationale for the assignment is based on information contained in the Ajax Audley Developments Ltd. TIS (Sundial), and to be conservative, GHD estimated 75% of the Sundial traffic would use the Kerrison intersections (25% of the traffic to/from Rossland as well as north along Salem and Audley). It is not reasonable to assume 100% of the Sundial traffic at the study intersections when Rossland east and west available as well as north along Salem and Audley. For non-auto mode reduction, the Durham Region TMP (Oct 2003) indicates a transit mode split of 16% and an additional 8% for other modes for 2021 (24% non-auto mode). The Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update (February 2013) proposed to increase the percentage of trips by transit, cycling and walking to 30% in the 2031 horizon year. The subject site has multiple opportunities to access transit systems DRT buses and GO Transit. Therefore, this study adopts 15% non-auto mode reductions for residential trips. The 15% non-auto mode reduction is less than the targeted non-auto modes envisioned in both the Region and Town s TMPs. Consequently, the resultant trip generation is as shown in the following Table 1. Table 1. Sundial Homes Residential Development Trip Generation Land Use Units Parameter Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Weekday SAT Peak Hour In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total Single-Family Detached Housing (LUC 210) Residential Condominium/ Townhouse (LUC 230) Rate Trips % non-auto Reduction New Trips Rate Trips % non-auto Reduction New Trips Total 1417 Trips % of Total Trips As shown in the last row in Table 1, the Sundial Homes residential development is expected to impact the study intersections with an estimated 131 inbound and 441 outbound automobile trips during the weekday am peak hour; 473 inbound and 266 outbound automobile trips during the weekday pm peak hour; 368 inbound and 314 outbound automobile trips during the Saturday peak hour. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 15

23 4.4.2 Sundial development trip distribution The site traffic distribution used for the Sundial Homes residential development was based on its traffic study and supplemented with information from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Study (TTS) and examining existing traffic distribution patterns. Table 2 summarizes the trip distribution adopted in the study to assign the Sundial Homes development trips to the intersections within the study area. Table 2. Sundial Homes Residential Development Distribution To / From Distribution South on Salem Road 40% East on Kingston Road 25% West on Kerrison Drive 20% West on Kingston Road 15% Totals 100% The resultant Sundial Homes residential development traffic is shown in Figure Passvale development trip generation The potential development known as the Passvale development in the A3 Secondary Plan located south of Kingston Road between the proposed Audley Road extension to the east and existing residential/commercial to the west. This development consists of acres of prestige employment and acres of general industrial. It is assumed that the future extension of Alexander s Crossing across the development will consume the equivalent of approximately 10% of the total acres area leaving a conservative 90% of developable land. According to the consultation with the Town staff, it is assumed 20% coverage for prestige employment and 25% coverage for general industrial. Therefore, the resulting commercial and employment development is estimated as 325,480 ft 2 and 347,936 ft 2 gross floor area (GFA), respectively. The details of how these development areas are derived are provided in Appendix D. GHD utilized the average trip generation rates found in Trip Generation, 9 th Edition published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) to estimate trip generation. More specifically, the Shopping Centre (Land Use 820) trip rates were used for the prestige employment development and the General Office (Land Use 710) and Industrial Park (Land Use 130) trip rates were used for the general industrial in a 50/50% proportion. Vehicles trips were reduced by 15% to account for increased transit opportunities, as discussed previously in Section Pass-by trips were applied at the access locations to the prestige employment. The pass-by trips were derived from the information contained in the Trip Generation Handbook, 2 nd Edition (ITE) for shopping centres during the weekday pm and Saturday peak periods. The resultant south development site trips are as shown in Table 3. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 16

24 Figure 7: Sundial Homes site traffic

25 Land Use General Office (LUC 710) Industrial Park (LUC 130) Area (1,000 sqft) (50%) (50%) Table 3. Passvale development trip generation AM PM SAT Number In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total ITE Rate Trips % non-auto Reduction Trips ITE Rate Trips % non-auto Reduction Trips General Industrial General Industrial Trips Land Use Shopping Centre (LUC 820) Area (1,000 sqft) Number AM PM SAT In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total ITE Trip Rate Trips Pass-by (%) 0% 34% 26% Pass-by Trips % non-auto Reduction Trips Prestige Employment Prestige Employment Trips Total Total Trips From Table 3 above, the Passvale development is expected to generate an estimated 467 inbound and 150 outbound automobile trips during the weekday am peak hour; 349 inbound and 612 outbound automobile trips during the weekday pm peak hour; and, 540 inbound and 502 outbound automobile trips during the Saturday peak hour Passvale development trip distribution The primary site distribution used for the Passvale prestige employment was based upon examining the surrounding residential area distribution. Table 4 summarizes the trip distribution adopted in the study to assign the prestige employment trips to the road network for the weekday am and pm and Saturday peak hours. Table 4: Passvale prestige employment development distribution To / From Distribution North on Salem Road 10% North on Audley Road 20% North on Alexander s Crossing 5% South on Salem Road 20% East on Kingston Road 25% West on Kerrison Drive 10% West on Kingston Road 10% Totals 100% GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 18

26 The primary site distribution used for the Passvale general industrial development was based upon consulting with the Transportation Tomorrow Study (TTS). Table 5 summarizes the trip distribution adopted in the study to assign the employment development trips to the road network for the weekday am and pm and Saturday peak hours. Table 5: Passvale general industrial development distribution To / From Distribution North on Salem Road 10% North on Audley Road 5% North on Alexander s Crossing 5% South on Salem Road 30% East on Kingston Road 25% West on Kerrison Drive 15% West on Kingston Road 10% Totals 100% On the basis of the trip generation and distribution discussed above, the resultant Passvale development traffic is shown in Figure 8. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 19

27 Figure 8: Passvale site traffic

28 4.5 Future traffic diversion due to realigned Alexander s Crossing Due to the closure of Alexander s Crossing between the north public access and Kerrison Drive and alignment to Audley Road, the existing through traffic on Alexander s Crossing is diverted to alternative routes (such as Audley Road and Salem Road) on the basis of existing traffic distribution. These traffic diversions are presented in Figure Background traffic volumes The estimated 2023 background traffic growth plus the proposed Sundial Homes development traffic were combined with the 2014 baseline traffic volumes and the result is the 2023 future background traffic volumes. Figures 10 and 11 show the Future Background traffic volumes for existing road network and for diversions due to road infrastructure improvements outside the study area, respectively. Figure 12 shows the Future Background traffic volumes with diversions due to road infrastructure improvements outside the study area and the realignment of Alexander s Crossing. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 21

29 Figure 9: Traffic diversion due to realigned Alexander s Crossing

30 Figure 10: Future background traffic (Figure 5 + Figure 7)

31 Figure 11: Future background traffic with diversions due to new road infrastructure (Figure 10 + Figure 6)

32 Figure 12: Future background traffic with diversions and realigned Alexander s Crossing (Figure 11 + Figure 9)

33 5. Proposed site generated traffic 5.1 Site trip generation The subject site consists of expanding the Gaming Establishment use from 800 gaming positions to 3,700 gaming positions (ie. 2,500 slot machine positions and 1,200 table games positions). GHD had also commissioned traffic counts at the existing driveways in 2013 as part of the initial study. These counts were undertaken in the summer during a typical weekday roadway afternoon peak period (4 6 pm). Summary of the trip generation shown in Table 6 indicates that the Friday pm trip is higher than the mid-week. Therefore, to be conservative, the 2014 Friday pm peak hour traffic data was adopted in the analysis. Date Table 6: Ajax Downs weekday pm traffic count data Weekday pm peak hour In Out Total Tuesday, August 13, Friday, July 25, difference +87 (+62%) +24 (+11%) +111 (+23%) The methodology used to estimate the future trips at Ajax Downs was first to understand that the trip generation is not linear to the number of gaming positions. In fact, the more gaming positions available results in less vehicles trips per position. Trip generation to gaming establishments is relatively steady with expected peaks in the pm roadway peak period and on weekends. To demonstrate this characteristic GHD commissioned OTI to conduct hourly traffic counts of Alexander s Crossing over a Friday evening to Tuesday morning (March 13 to March 17, 2015). It is acknowledged that this coincided with the start of the March Break, and visitation to Ajax Downs may be higher than usual, however the emphasis is on the hourly variation. The results provided in the latter part of Appendix A indicate that the Monday and Friday pm peak hour variation is approximately 6% of the daily traffic and the Friday pm peak hour traffic being 18% higher (362/307) than the Monday peak. This compares to the driveway counts (Table 6) which indicated the Friday pm counts were 23% higher than the 2013 Tuesday counts. During the Saturday noon to 2pm period (typical roadway peak period), the traffic on Alexander s Crossing was approximately 5% of the Saturday traffic. During the typical morning roadway peak period (7 8 am), the Monday am peak hour is approximately 2.6% of the daily traffic. Since the hourly variation is relatively steady (5-6 % range), it is hypothesized that the hourly trips, daily trips, and yearly trips are also relatively stable. Based on the Ajax Downs historical data from 2009 (established 800 gaming positions) to 2013, the average annual visitors is 1.6 million. On average, this means approximately 4500 people visit each day. Assuming a vehicle occupancy of 1.2 people per vehicle and applying the hourly variations (2.6%, 6% and 5% for the peak hours, respectively), results in similar however lower estimates (provided in Appendix D) than the recorded trip generation at Ajax Downs. Therefore, this confirms that the Ajax Downs trip generation is relatively consistent day-to-day and peak hour examined. Based on the Ajax Downs historical data from 2009 to 2013, the average annual visitors is 1.6 million with the 800 gaming positions. Projecting the future visitors at the 3,700 gaming positions was GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 26

34 undertaken on the basis of the historical data and resulted in 2.3 million and 2.6 million visitors depending on the method used (provided in Appendix D). GHD reviewed the recent Marketing Study Memorandum - Ajax Downs Visitor Catchment Area conducted by TMG Consulting dated January 16, The related excerpts can be found in Appendix D. The Memorandum estimated that Ajax Downs with the proposed 3,700 gaming positions could generate nearly 2.7 million visitors per year. The visitor increasing factor is for the gaming positions from 800 to 3,700. Therefore, the future site trips (with 3,700 gaming positions) during the weekday am, Friday pm and Saturday peak hours are estimated by the factor of (2.7M / 1.6M) on the basis of existing site trips. The estimated future trips are summarized in Table 7. Land Use Gaming Positions Table 7: Ajax Downs trip generation Parameter Weekday AM Peak Hour Friday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total 800 Existing Gaming Centre 3,700 Future Total ,900 Future Total minus Existing As illustrated in Table 7 above, the subject development(s) are expected to generate additional new trips estimated 72 inbound and 32 outbound automobile trips during the weekday am peak hour; 157 inbound and 169 outbound automobile trips during the weekday pm peak hour; and, 164 inbound and 85 outbound automobile trips during the Saturday peak hour. 5.2 Site trip distribution and assignment Based on review of the Ajax Downs Visitor Catchment Area and the Slots at Ajax Downs Traffic Infiltration Study Update conducted by LEA (attached in Appendix D), the assignment and distribution of the anticipated site traffic for the subject development was refined to reflect the location of the proposed access points. Table 8 summarizes the trip distribution adopted in the study to assign the site trips to the road network for the weekday am, pm and Saturday peak hours. Table 8: Ajax Downs trip distribution To / From Trip Distribution North on Salem Road 5% North on Audley Road 10% South on Salem Road 30% East on Kingston Road 30% West on Kerrison Drive 15% West on Kingston Road 10% Totals 100% Figures 13 and 14 show the resulting site trips generated by the proposed development with the existing road network and with the realigned Alexander s Crossing to Audley Road, respectively. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 27

35 Figure 13: Ajax Downs new traffic volumes

36 Figure 14: Ajax Downs new traffic volumes with realigned Alexander s Crossing

37 6. Future total traffic In order to determine the operations of the study area intersections and to determine the impacts due to the introduction of the anticipated site trips, the background 2023 traffic volumes were combined with the anticipated traffic diversions due to new road infrastructure and the estimated site trips to derive the total 2023 peak hours traffic volumes. The total traffic volumes are illustrated in Figures 15 to 16 with the existing and realigned Alexander s Crossing, respectively. GHD Report for Ajax Downs Ajax Downs Expansion Transportation Assessment (13281) 30